NFL Week 12 last-minute bets: Best values on props, picks and more
So come along for the ride and see how we fare diving deep into Sunday props. Results from last week are at the bottom of the story.
Odds via ESPN BET.
Lamar Jackson over 19.5 pass completions (+100 at ESPN BET)
The Ravens have the second-lowest designed pass play rate in the NFL (56%), but if we look only at situations in which their win probability is between 15% and 85%, (when the game remains in doubt) they are middle of the pack (62%). Baltimore is only 3.5-point favorites against the Chargers on the road here, so the blowout probability isn’t that high. Thus, there should be more passing opportunities — and therefore more completions — against this bad Chargers secondary. I forecast Jackson for 20.8 completions.
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Jalen Hurts over 21.5 pass completions (-105)
Joshua Dobbs over 21.5 pass completions (+100)
Will Levis under 28.5 pass attempts (-105)
Levis has gone over this line in three of his four starts, but only one of those games was a win. Tennessee enters this game in the unusual situation of being a 3.5-point favorite. I expect a more conservative game plan if they get ahead against Bryce Young & Co. My model puts Levis’ attempts at an average of 27.5.
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C.J. Stroud over 35.5 pass attempts (+105)
Josh Allen over 35.5 pass attempts (-120)
Justin Fields over 0.5 interceptions (+115)
Fields has consistently recorded an interception rate between 2.5% and 2.9% in each of his three seasons in the NFL — all above the roughly 1.9% league average. As a light underdog against what has become a solid blitz-happy Vikings defense under Brian Flores, I’m surprised we’re getting plus money here, but I’ll take it. My model makes the over price -122.
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Kyler Murray over 0.5 interceptions (+125)
Justin Herbert over 0.5 interceptions (+120)
Dorian Thompson-Robinson over 0.5 interceptions (-132)
Alvin Kamara under 4.5 receptions (-130)
I’ve written in this space about fading running back receptions against the Cowboys because I don’t think the market has fully baked in the effect of man-heavy defenses against running backs in the passing game. The Falcons aren’t quite at the Cowboys’ level in their rate of man coverage (65%), but at 60%, they’re a close second. As a result, I like Kamara’s under.
Haason Reddick under 0.5 sacks (-115)
I’m a big Reddick believer — he’s a long-time pass rush win rate stalwart — but the pass-rusher is only part of the equation in a sack prop. The quarterback plays a huge role too, and Josh Allen has been elite in sack avoidance this season with just a 3.3% sack rate (second only behind Patrick Mahomes) and a 0.12 sack-to-pressure ratio (again only behind Mahomes). My model makes the fair price on the under -146.
Montez Sweat under 0.5 sacks (-132)
Because Sweat ranks 51st out of 53 edge rushers in pass rush win rate, my model is almost always going to be lower on him than consensus. He has recorded one sack in three games with the Bears, and this isn’t a great spot for him to find his second. The Vikings are favored and have a good pass protecting offensive line, and Joshua Dobbs has taken sacks at a lower-than-average rate (5.6%) this season. I make the price -182.
See also:
Chris Jones under 0.5 sacks (+115)
Calais Campbell under 0.5 sacks (-200)
Aaron Donald under 0.5 sacks (-115)
Myles Garrett over 0.5 sacks (-175)
Ed Oliver under 0.5 sacks (-190)
Justin Madubuike under 0.5 sacks (-130)
Harrison Phillips under 5.5 tackles + assists (+135)
We hit on this under last week and we’re coming back to the well. It’s one of the few spots where — barring some major playing time changes — our model is way off from the market. I forecast Phillips for just 4.0 tackles + assists, and we’re getting plus-money on under 5.5. No doubt Phillips frequently racks up tackles on run plays, so this is simply a high total to hit for any defensive lineman.
See also:
Pete Werner over 5.5 tackles + assists (-130)
James Bradberry over 3.5 tackles + assists (+122)
Jaylon Johnson over 2.5 tackles + assists (-140)
Jason Pinnock over 4.5 tackles + assists (+118)
Jalen Pitre under 5.5 tackles + assists (+118)
Andre Cisco over 4.5 tackles + assists (+110)
Budda Baker under 6.5 tackles + assists (-105)
Kenneth Murray Jr. under 8.5 tackles + assists (+118)
Alohi Gilman over 4.5 tackles + assists (-135)
Asante Samuel Jr. over 3.5 tackles + assists (+125)
QB interceptions: 1-2 (-0.5 units)
Pass completions: 1-1 (-0.2 units)
Pass attempts: 1-0 (+0.8 units)
Receptions: 2-0 (+1.6 units)
Sacks: 3-3 (-0.8 units)
Tackles: 4-4 (-0.3 units)
Overall: 12-10 (+0.6 units)
QB interceptions: 11-28 (-3.4 units)
Pass completions: 3-2 (+0.7 units)
Pass attempts: 4-6 (-2.8 units)
Receptions: 3-0 (+2.8 units)
Sacks: 58-43-2 (+12.3 units)
Tackles: 46-33-1 (+9.9 units)
Defensive interceptions: 0-3 (-3.0 units)
D/ST touchdowns: 2-19 (-3.5 units)
Teasers: 2-2 (+0.4 units)
Weekly specials: 0-3 (-3.0 units)
Game props: 0-2 (-2.0 units)
Overall: 129-130-3 (+8.4 units)