Fantasy basketball tips and projections for Sunday
New this season, ESPN Analytics will also generate daily NBA fantasy projections. By combining historical player and team data and specific game factors, ESPN is able to accurately predict player box score stats. Accounting for injuries, trends in playing time, and other factors impacting future performance, the statistical models can be used to help NBA fantasy players gain an edge in their league.
By Steve Alexander
Sunday’s NBA schedule is somewhat unusual, with several early tip-offs and no late games. One of the marquee matchups will feature the Hawks visiting the Celtics with one of the more notable injuries around the league, as Kristaps Porzingis (calf) will not play tonight. That will create an opportunity for a Celtics big man to step up, but it’s slim pickings in Boston. The 37-year-old Al Horford should get all the minutes he can handle — and he has some revenge potential against his former team tonight.
Jrue Holiday is questionable due to an ankle injury and is in jeopardy of missing his second straight game. The Magic defeated the Celtics on Friday with Holiday in street clothes and Horford started in his place. The Celtics didn’t really utilize any small guys off the bench. Instead, Derrick White and Jaylen Brown both played big minutes, Sam Hauser played 25 minutes, and Payton Pritchard saw just 13 minutes off the bench. If Holiday is out tonight, look for even more minutes for Horford, White and Brown.
Here are some other notes from around the league.
Hawks forward Jalen Johnson (wrist) left Saturday’s game against the Wizards and never returned, leaving him iffy for tonight. If he’s out, Saddiq Bey gets a fantasy boost.
Nikola Jokic (back) is probable for the Nuggets when they host Victor Wembanyama in the first-ever meeting between the two players. Wemby has been a bit “hit or miss” this season, but is rolling right now with averages of 19.8 points, 9.8 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.0 steals, 3.0 blocks and 1.2 3-pointers over his last five games. Those are ridiculous numbers and it should be fun to see what he can do against the Joker in tonight’s late game.
Speaking of Jokic, he’s also been putting up wild numbers with averages of 34.0 points, 16.0 rebounds, 10.0 assists, 3.0 steals, 1.0 blocks and 2.0 3-pointers in his two games since being ejected on Monday against the Pistons.
Alperen Sengun had a big game against Jokic on Friday with 21 points, 15 rebounds, eight assists, two steals and a block. Goga Bitadze and Moritz Wagner combined for 18 points, 15 rebounds and a block against Jokic on Wednesday. That gives us hope that both Wembanyama and starting center Zach Collins could have big lines for the Spurs today. Just beware of the blowout factor, as the 3-13 Spurs have now lost 11 straight games. The Nuggets will be looking to get back on track after a pair of tough losses against the Rockets and Magic.
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Reggie Jackson, PG, Nuggets (7.1% rostered in ESPN leagues): Jackson is probable tonight despite a back injury. He is coming off a 1-of-7 shooting disaster against the Rockets on Friday, where he had just two points, four rebounds and three assists in 25 minutes. However, he’s been otherwise pretty solid filling in for Jamal Murray and has averaged 11.9 points, 2.1 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 0.8 steals and 1.4 3-pointers on 45% shooting in November. He’s got a nice matchup against the Spurs tonight and is in a good spot for a bounceback after Friday’s rough night.
Saddiq Bey, SF/PF, Hawks (19.6% rostered): Jalen Johnson was unable to finish his last game due to a wrist injury and is considered questionable for Sunday. If he’s out tonight, Bey should be in line to start for the Hawks and play massive minutes. Bey has averaged 11.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.0 steals and 1.3 3-pointers in three starts this season and had 13 points, nine rebounds and a steal in 32 minutes of Saturday’s blowout win over the Wizards, playing quite well after Johnson departed. Bogdan Bogdanovic is also in line for more opportunities if Johnson is out.
Eric Gordon, SG/SF, Suns (18%): With Bradley Beal out and Kevin Durant questionable, Gordon should play another big role for the Suns on Sunday. Gordon has scored in double figures in seven straight games and had 20 points and four 3-pointers against the Grizzlies on Friday while Durant sat out. He also had seven steals over four games before posting a goose egg in that category against the Grizzlies. Grayson Allen should also see a boost after having 14 points, two rebounds, three assists, a block and two 3-pointers in 37 minutes on Friday.
Luke Kornet, C, Celtics (0.1%): Kornet is not a lock for success against the Hawks on Sunday, but with Porzingis sitting, he is another Boston player who should see plenty of minutes. Kornet is coming off his best game of the season against the Magic on Friday where he had 12 points, six rebounds, two steals and two blocks in 25 minutes. He might be useful if you need a big man with some steals and blocks potential.
Fantasy projections powered by ESPN Analytics.* Projections assume all players who are listed as GTD will play. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Players available in at least 50% of ESPN leagues are listed in italics.
Portland Trail Blazers at Milwaukee Bucks
3:30 p.m. Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee
BPI Projection: Bucks by 12.3 in the 2nd highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Blazers: Robert Williams III, (OUT – Knee); Deandre Ayton, (GTD – Back); Anfernee Simons, (OUT – Thumb); Ish Wainright, (OUT – Knee)
Bucks: Jae Crowder, (OUT – Groin); Giannis Antetokounmpo, (GTD – Illness); Khris Middleton, (OUT – Achilles)
Blazers projections:
Jerami Grant, PF: 36.6 FPTS (25.4 pts, 4.0 reb, 2.9 ast, 2.6 3PM)
Shaedon Sharpe, SG/SF: 31.7 FPTS (19.5 pts, 5.0 reb, 3.6 ast, 1.9 3PM)
Malcolm Brogdon, PG/SG: 30.0 FPTS (15.3 pts, 4.1 reb, 4.2 ast, 1.9 3PM)
Deandre Ayton, C: 24.3 FPTS (10.7 pts, 8.6 reb, 1.1 ast)
Skylar Mays, PG/SG: 22.5 FPTS (9.7 pts, 2.0 reb, 4.1 ast)
Scoot Henderson, PG: 17.7 FPTS (9.5 pts, 4.0 reb, 2.7 ast)
Jabari Walker, PF: 16.9 FPTS (8.4 pts, 4.5 reb, 0.8 ast)
Bucks projections:
Giannis Antetokounmpo, PF/C: 53.3 FPTS (32.3 pts, 11.9 reb, 5.9 ast)
Damian Lillard, PG: 47.1 FPTS (27.6 pts, 4.4 reb, 6.8 ast, 3.0 3PM)
Bobby Portis, PF/C: 24.0 FPTS (13.3 pts, 6.7 reb, 1.2 ast)
Brook Lopez, C: 23.7 FPTS (12.2 pts, 5.7 reb, 1.2 ast, 2.5 blk)
Malik Beasley, SG: 20.3 FPTS (9.6 pts, 4.0 reb, 1.3 ast, 2.3 3PM)
Pat Connaughton, SG/SF: 15.4 FPTS (5.8 pts, 3.7 reb, 1.7 ast)
MarJon Beauchamp, SG: 13.7 FPTS (7.5 pts, 2.5 reb, 1.2 ast)
Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics
6 p.m. TD Garden, Boston
BPI Projection: Celtics by 4.3 in the highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Hawks: Kobe Bufkin, (OUT – Thumb); Jalen Johnson, (GTD – Wrist); Mouhamed Gueye, (OUT – Back)
Celtics: Jrue Holiday, (GTD – Ankle); Kristaps Porzingis, (OUT – Calf)
Hawks projections:
Trae Young, PG: 46.8 FPTS (27.2 pts, 2.9 reb, 9.1 ast, 2.4 3PM)
Dejounte Murray, PG/SG: 38.7 FPTS (20.3 pts, 4.2 reb, 5.3 ast, 2.2 3PM)
Jalen Johnson, SF: 27.0 FPTS (12.7 pts, 6.8 reb, 2.2 ast)
Clint Capela, C: 22.1 FPTS (9.8 pts, 8.2 reb, 1.0 ast)
Saddiq Bey, SF/PF: 21.1 FPTS (10.1 pts, 5.2 reb, 1.1 ast)
De’Andre Hunter, SF/PF: 20.9 FPTS (12.0 pts, 3.5 reb, 1.3 ast)
Bogdan Bogdanovic, SG/SF: 20.8 FPTS (10.4 pts, 2.1 reb, 2.1 ast, 2.2 3PM)
Celtics projections:
Jayson Tatum, SF/PF: 48.1 FPTS (28.0 pts, 8.1 reb, 4.5 ast, 3.2 3PM)
Jaylen Brown, SG/SF: 36.7 FPTS (22.3 pts, 4.8 reb, 3.9 ast, 2.4 3PM)
Jrue Holiday, PG/SG: 31.0 FPTS (13.9 pts, 6.7 reb, 5.1 ast)
Derrick White, PG/SG: 27.1 FPTS (13.1 pts, 3.7 reb, 4.0 ast, 2.2 3PM)
Sam Hauser, SF: 17.0 FPTS (8.7 pts, 2.8 reb, 1.0 ast, 2.4 3PM)
Al Horford, PF/C: 16.6 FPTS (5.5 pts, 6.0 reb, 1.6 ast)
Payton Pritchard, PG: 16.3 FPTS (7.5 pts, 3.2 reb, 2.3 ast)
Phoenix Suns at New York Knicks
6 p.m. Madison Square Garden, New York
BPI Projection: Knicks by 2.3 in the 5th highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Suns: Drew Eubanks, (GTD – Ankle); Kevin Durant, (GTD – Foot); Yuta Watanabe, (GTD – Quadriceps); Bradley Beal, (OUT – Back); Damion Lee, (OUT – Knee)
Knicks: Duane Washington Jr., (GTD – Illness)
Suns projections:
Devin Booker, SG/SF: 46.2 FPTS (27.6 pts, 5.0 reb, 7.2 ast, 2.1 3PM)
Kevin Durant, SF/PF: 44.3 FPTS (28.1 pts, 6.0 reb, 5.4 ast)
Eric Gordon, SG/SF: 25.7 FPTS (13.3 pts, 2.4 reb, 3.1 ast, 2.4 3PM)
Jusuf Nurkic, C: 23.9 FPTS (10.8 pts, 7.6 reb, 2.8 ast)
Grayson Allen, SG: 23.2 FPTS (10.7 pts, 4.3 reb, 2.9 ast, 2.0 3PM)
Drew Eubanks, PF: 16.1 FPTS (7.4 pts, 4.2 reb, 1.7 ast)
Keita Bates-Diop, SF: 13.8 FPTS (6.6 pts, 3.1 reb, 1.0 ast)
Knicks projections:
Jalen Brunson, PG/SG: 40.6 FPTS (25.6 pts, 3.4 reb, 5.4 ast, 2.6 3PM)
Julius Randle, PF: 38.3 FPTS (22.3 pts, 8.9 reb, 5.2 ast, 2.0 3PM)
RJ Barrett, SG/SF: 27.0 FPTS (18.0 pts, 3.2 reb, 2.9 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Mitchell Robinson, C: 22.9 FPTS (8.8 pts, 10.0 reb, 0.9 ast)
Immanuel Quickley, PG/SG: 20.9 FPTS (11.4 pts, 2.7 reb, 2.6 ast)
Josh Hart, SG/SF: 18.1 FPTS (6.7 pts, 4.8 reb, 2.1 ast)
Donte DiVincenzo, SG: 18.0 FPTS (9.6 pts, 3.0 reb, 1.9 ast, 2.0 3PM)
Charlotte Hornets at Orlando Magic
6 p.m. Amway Center, Orlando
BPI Projection: Magic by 6.9 in the 4th highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Hornets: P.J. Washington, (GTD – Foot); Terry Rozier, (GTD – Groin); Cody Martin, (OUT – Knee); Frank Ntilikina, (OUT – Lower Leg); James Bouknight, (OUT – Knee); Nick Richards, (OUT – Concussion)
Magic: Markelle Fultz, (OUT – Knee); Wendell Carter Jr., (OUT – Finger)
Hornets projections:
LaMelo Ball, PG/SG: 47.1 FPTS (26.5 pts, 5.3 reb, 7.9 ast, 3.5 3PM)
Miles Bridges, SF/PF: 31.1 FPTS (16.1 pts, 6.2 reb, 3.3 ast)
Gordon Hayward, SF: 29.5 FPTS (16.2 pts, 4.0 reb, 4.1 ast)
Mark Williams, C: 26.7 FPTS (12.5 pts, 9.7 reb, 1.2 ast)
P.J. Washington, PF: 23.2 FPTS (13.3 pts, 4.2 reb, 1.9 ast)
Brandon Miller, SG/SF: 16.7 FPTS (10.1 pts, 5.4 reb, 1.1 ast)
Theo Maledon, PG: 15.5 FPTS (7.9 pts, 2.5 reb, 2.6 ast)
Magic projections:
Franz Wagner, SG/SF/PF: 33.6 FPTS (19.0 pts, 4.3 reb, 3.0 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Paolo Banchero, SF/PF: 31.6 FPTS (20.2 pts, 5.5 reb, 4.0 ast)
Cole Anthony, PG: 27.2 FPTS (15.0 pts, 4.3 reb, 3.3 ast)
Jalen Suggs, PG/SG: 25.2 FPTS (12.1 pts, 3.7 reb, 2.6 ast)
Goga Bitadze, C: 21.2 FPTS (8.8 pts, 7.2 reb, 1.3 ast, 1.4 blk)
Moritz Wagner, PF/C: 19.3 FPTS (9.8 pts, 3.9 reb, 1.2 ast)
Anthony Black, PG/SG: 17.4 FPTS (8.8 pts, 4.3 reb, 2.7 ast)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies
6 p.m. FedExForum, Memphis
BPI Projection: Timberwolves by 4.7 in the 6th highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Timberwolves: Jaylen Clark, (OUT – Achilles); Jaden McDaniels, (OUT – Ankle); Jordan McLaughlin, (OUT – Knee)
Grizzlies: Brandon Clarke, (OUT – Achilles); Steven Adams, (OUT – Knee); Xavier Tillman, (OUT – Knee); Jake LaRavia, (OUT – Eye); Luke Kennard, (OUT – Knee); Marcus Smart, (OUT – Foot); Ja Morant, (OUT – Suspension)
Timberwolves projections:
Anthony Edwards, SG/SF: 43.8 FPTS (26.0 pts, 5.6 reb, 5.6 ast, 2.6 3PM)
Karl-Anthony Towns, PF/C: 40.2 FPTS (21.5 pts, 8.7 reb, 3.5 ast)
Rudy Gobert, C: 28.7 FPTS (13.6 pts, 12.0 reb, 1.5 ast, 1.8 blk)
Mike Conley, PG: 22.0 FPTS (8.4 pts, 2.1 reb, 4.3 ast)
Kyle Anderson, SF/PF: 19.3 FPTS (7.8 pts, 3.5 reb, 3.6 ast)
Naz Reid, PF/C: 19.3 FPTS (10.8 pts, 3.7 reb, 1.1 ast)
Nickeil Alexander-Walker, SG: 17.4 FPTS (7.8 pts, 2.6 reb, 2.4 ast)
Grizzlies projections:
Desmond Bane, SG/SF: 42.3 FPTS (24.6 pts, 4.1 reb, 4.7 ast, 3.4 3PM)
Jaren Jackson Jr., PF/C: 30.8 FPTS (20.6 pts, 6.3 reb, 1.5 ast, 1.7 blk)
Santi Aldama, PF: 24.2 FPTS (11.9 pts, 5.2 reb, 2.2 ast)
Bismack Biyombo, C: 19.8 FPTS (8.1 pts, 7.5 reb, 1.7 ast, 1.3 blk)
Ziaire Williams, SG: 14.9 FPTS (7.4 pts, 3.4 reb, 1.4 ast)
John Konchar, SG/SF: 14.7 FPTS (5.4 pts, 4.3 reb, 1.6 ast)
Jacob Gilyard, PG: 14.5 FPTS (4.4 pts, 1.9 reb, 2.5 ast)
Chicago Bulls at Brooklyn Nets
7:30 p.m. Barclays Center, New York
BPI Projection: Nets by 5.5 in the 7th highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Bulls: Lonzo Ball, (OUT – Knee); Alex Caruso, (GTD – Foot); Zach LaVine, (GTD – Foot)
Nets: Dennis Smith Jr., (GTD – Back); Cam Thomas, (OUT – Ankle); Ben Simmons, (OUT – Back)
Bulls projections:
Zach LaVine, SG/SF: 36.6 FPTS (21.3 pts, 4.9 reb, 3.5 ast, 2.6 3PM)
DeMar DeRozan, SG/SF: 36.5 FPTS (22.6 pts, 3.1 reb, 4.4 ast)
Nikola Vucevic, C: 34.4 FPTS (16.9 pts, 9.9 reb, 2.9 ast)
Coby White, PG/SG: 27.5 FPTS (14.0 pts, 3.0 reb, 3.8 ast, 2.2 3PM)
Alex Caruso, PG/SG: 19.7 FPTS (8.6 pts, 3.7 reb, 1.8 ast)
Torrey Craig, SF/PF: 13.7 FPTS (5.4 pts, 4.1 reb, 1.1 ast)
Patrick Williams, SF/PF: 13.6 FPTS (6.7 pts, 3.5 reb, 1.1 ast)
Nets projections:
Mikal Bridges, SG/SF: 34.6 FPTS (18.8 pts, 5.1 reb, 3.6 ast, 2.1 3PM)
Spencer Dinwiddie, PG/SG: 29.5 FPTS (13.1 pts, 3.3 reb, 5.1 ast, 2.3 3PM)
Cameron Johnson, SF/PF: 23.9 FPTS (12.8 pts, 4.0 reb, 1.7 ast, 2.2 3PM)
Nic Claxton, PF/C: 21.3 FPTS (9.2 pts, 7.5 reb, 1.5 ast, 1.6 blk)
Lonnie Walker IV, SG/SF: 20.4 FPTS (11.3 pts, 2.4 reb, 1.5 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Dorian Finney-Smith, SF/PF: 18.7 FPTS (8.7 pts, 3.9 reb, 1.1 ast, 2.1 3PM)
Royce O’Neale, SF: 17.6 FPTS (5.5 pts, 4.0 reb, 2.2 ast)
Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers
7:30 p.m. Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland
BPI Projection: Cavaliers by 2.1 in the 8th highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Raptors: Christian Koloko, (OUT – Illness)
Cavaliers: Ricky Rubio, (OUT – Personal); Darius Garland, (GTD – Neck); Dean Wade, (GTD – Ankle); Ty Jerome, (GTD – Ankle)
Raptors projections:
Scottie Barnes, SF/PF: 41.7 FPTS (20.0 pts, 8.5 reb, 5.4 ast, 1.3 blk)
Pascal Siakam, PF/C: 39.0 FPTS (21.8 pts, 6.4 reb, 5.0 ast)
Dennis Schroder, PG: 30.9 FPTS (15.6 pts, 2.9 reb, 5.5 ast, 1.8 3PM)
O.G. Anunoby, SF: 27.1 FPTS (14.6 pts, 3.8 reb, 2.5 ast, 2.3 3PM)
Jakob Poeltl, C: 25.9 FPTS (11.0 pts, 8.2 reb, 2.4 ast)
Gary Trent Jr., PG/SG: 17.9 FPTS (10.7 pts, 2.0 reb, 1.3 ast)
Precious Achiuwa, PF/C: 16.7 FPTS (7.1 pts, 4.8 reb, 1.7 ast)
Cavaliers projections:
Donovan Mitchell, PG/SG: 48.6 FPTS (26.5 pts, 4.8 reb, 5.5 ast, 3.2 3PM)
Darius Garland, PG: 35.6 FPTS (20.7 pts, 3.2 reb, 6.0 ast)
Evan Mobley, PF/C: 34.7 FPTS (16.8 pts, 10.3 reb, 3.3 ast, 1.4 blk)
Max Strus, SG/SF: 34.3 FPTS (14.9 pts, 6.0 reb, 3.7 ast, 3.0 3PM)
Caris LeVert, SG/SF: 26.6 FPTS (13.8 pts, 3.3 reb, 3.1 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Jarrett Allen, C: 25.5 FPTS (12.4 pts, 8.0 reb, 2.1 ast)
Isaac Okoro, SG/SF: 16.0 FPTS (7.8 pts, 3.3 reb, 1.2 ast)
San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets
8 p.m. Ball Arena, Denver
BPI Projection: Nuggets by 10.2 in the 3rd highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Spurs: None reported
Nuggets: Vlatko Cancar, (OUT – Knee); Aaron Gordon, (GTD – Heel); Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, (GTD – Ankle); Nikola Jokic, (GTD – Back); Reggie Jackson, (GTD – Back); Jamal Murray, (OUT – Hamstring)
Spurs projections:
Keldon Johnson, SF: 34.0 FPTS (17.0 pts, 5.7 reb, 4.1 ast, 2.1 3PM)
Victor Wembanyama, PF/C: 29.3 FPTS (18.3 pts, 9.3 reb, 1.4 ast)
Zach Collins, PF/C: 28.0 FPTS (14.2 pts, 6.6 reb, 3.4 ast)
Jeremy Sochan, PG/PF: 23.3 FPTS (11.7 pts, 5.1 reb, 3.7 ast)
Devin Vassell, SG/SF: 18.7 FPTS (9.7 pts, 2.6 reb, 2.1 ast)
Tre Jones, PG: 18.0 FPTS (7.1 pts, 2.8 reb, 4.1 ast)
Malaki Branham, SG: 15.9 FPTS (9.1 pts, 1.8 reb, 1.9 ast)
Nuggets projections:
Nikola Jokic, C: 53.0 FPTS (25.6 pts, 11.7 reb, 7.2 ast)
Aaron Gordon, PF: 33.1 FPTS (16.7 pts, 7.1 reb, 4.1 ast)
Michael Porter Jr., SF: 31.6 FPTS (16.9 pts, 7.8 reb, 1.3 ast, 2.7 3PM)
Reggie Jackson, PG: 26.3 FPTS (13.4 pts, 2.5 reb, 4.0 ast)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG/SF: 22.9 FPTS (11.0 pts, 2.2 reb, 2.9 ast)
Christian Braun, SG: 18.6 FPTS (10.4 pts, 4.5 reb, 1.6 ast)
Jay Huff, C: 12.7 FPTS (5.5 pts, 3.3 reb, 0.9 ast)
* NBA fantasy projections are generated by ESPN Analytics by combining historical player and team data as well as specific game factors ESPN to accurately predict player box score stats. Accounting for injuries, trends in playing time, and other factors impacting future performance the statistical models can be used to help NBA fantasy players gain an edge in their league.