Fantasy hoops — How high is Otto Porter Jr.’s ceiling?
After racking up three 3-pointers, 3 steals and 3 blocks on Tuesday, Washington Wizards small forward Otto Porter Jr. ranks 34th on the Player Rater (based on averages). Over his past six games, he is averaging 17.5 PPG, 2.8 3-PPG, 5 RPG, 0.8 SPG and 1.0 BPG. Do you think he has reached his statistical ceiling for this season and beyond?
Kyle Soppe: I’m a big supporter of Porter and thought the Wizards were justified in taking him No. 3 in 2013, but even I have to admit that what we are seeing is a bit much. Let me first hedge that bet by saying that I think a few assists, six rebounds and 1.5 3-PPG is very much obtainable for this 23-year-old, but his scoring right now is not near sustainable, given his current usage.
Porter is a good shooter, but is he one of the 15 best in the business? I say no, so I’m expecting regression to his career mean from distance. That, however, is not where his scoring figures to drop the most. The man is finishing 74 percent of his shots from inside of 8 feet — 74 percent! That means he is converting those opportunities (which, you know, involve one if not multiple defenders) at roughly the same rate that LeBron James has made free throws for his career. Want more context? According to Hassan Whiteside, DeAndre Jordan “just catches lobs” — and Jordan is shooting 67.2 percent from inside of 8 feet!
So, yes, things are not going to get better for Porter. Even with mild regression in both of these departments, you’re looking at a player averaging closer to 10-11 PPG than the 14.1 PPG that Porter currently does. He’s a nice versatile player, but this scoring bump is too much.
Joe Kaiser: When it comes to determining whether a player has hit his statistical ceiling, I like to look at two things: age and current performance compared to past performance. If that player is still below the 27-28 age range and is having a career year, it tells me that he could have even more to offer. On the flip side, if he’s 30 and having a good year that is right in line with previous years, it tells me that player has most likely peaked.
In the case of Porter, Washington’s 23-year-old small forward, there’s no denying that this — his fourth NBA season — is his best. With his minutes bumped up from 30.3 MPG to 33.7 MPG compared to last season, he is currently putting up career highs in points, rebounds, steals, 3s and all of the shooting categories (52.8 FG%, 43 3-FG%, 81.3 FT%). While his current numbers (14.1 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 1.4 APG, 1.6 SPG, 1.7 3-PPG) may not rise much more than that this season, I think there’s a good chance that we see even more from Porter next season as a 24-year-old in his fifth season in the league.
Kevin Pelton: In terms of 3-point attempts, probably so, but he can and has done more in terms of rebounds and steals per game. The most interesting question to me is whether Porter could score more. In theory, an extended absence for Bradley Beal could open up more scoring opportunities for Porter to offset his inevitable decline in efficiency. In practice, however, Porter has averaged just 11.5 PPG in the four games Beal has missed this season — worse than his overall average of 14.1 a night.
Otto Porter Jr. ranks 34th (based on averages) on the ESPN Player Rater. Where will he finish the season?
35th or higher
36th or lower