NBA betting: Five picks for Monday’s slate
Teams headed for the lottery, on the other hand, tend to be more motivated by looking to the offseason and the future. Young players are getting more run to see if they can use this time to develop; players in contract years are trying out for their next employer; and players with even the slightest injury are more incentivized to rest of and get healthy as opposed to pushing through.
One outcome is a slate like Monday night’s, featuring 11 games where nine of them have spreads of at least 8.5 points. The games featuring a postseason-bound squad against a lottery-bound squad have huge spreads, and for good reason. Blowouts are usually bad for player props since fewer players play full minutes, but Monday’s column is dominated by team-level predictions. As always, let’s dig deeper into the matchups to identify some good candidates to outperform expectation.
New York Knicks (-16.5) vs. Detroit Pistons (-110).
The Knicks and Pistons are two teams headed in opposite directions, with the New York revving up for the playoffs and Detroit playing out the string on its way to the draft lottery. The Knicks have won five of their past six games, with their only loss in that stretch on the road against the defending champion Denver Nuggets. Four of their past six wins were by at least 12 points while the Pistons have lost six straight, with five of those six losses coming by at least 13 points. I’m expecting the same energy, from both teams, on Monday in what shapes up to be a blowout.
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Chicago Bulls and Washington Wizards over 225.5 points (-110).
According to ESPN Stats and Info, Bulls games have the highest rate of overs in the NBA this season (40 overs in 71 games). Chicago has gone over the total in six straight games and is facing a Wizards team that allows an NBA-high 123.7 PPG. The Wizards will be without Kyle Kuzma (shoulder) and Tyus Jones (back), and Jordan Poole is listed as a game-time decision with an ankle injury, so Washington’s offense might be weakened. Even so, the Wizards will be playing at home (where role players and reserves tend to play better) against a Bulls defense that has allowed 124 or more points in five of their past seven games. BPI projects the total in this game to be over 228 points.
Houston Rockets (-12.5) vs. Portland Trail Blazers (-105).
The Rockets are the hottest team in the Western Conference. Houston has won eight straight games, with each of their past five wins coming by double digits (an average of 18.2 PPG). The start of that eight-game win streak was a 16-point win over the Trail Blazers in Portland a couple weeks ago. The Blazers have lost six straight games themselves, and also may be without leading scorers Anfernee Simons (knee), Jerami Grant (hamstring) and Deandre Ayton (elbow) on Monday.
Philadelphia 76ers (+9.5) vs. Sacramento Kings (-110).
The 76ers are playing scrappy right now as they fight for playoff positioning. Philadelphia sits in the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference, but are only a half-game behind the Indiana Pacers for sixth and a guaranteed spot in the playoffs instead of the play-in tournament. Oh, and MVP Joel Embiid is reportedly getting closer to returning, giving the team more hope and motivation. The 76ers are in the midst of a brutal stretch,the fourth game of a Western Conference road trip with five of their past six games coming against postseason contenders. They have played well over that stretch with only one loss by more than 9.5 points. However, the Kings are a tough team to beat, particularly at home. I think the 76ers can at least keep the game within single digits and BPI has the Sacramento favored by a 6.6-points, well within the spread.
Indiana Pacers (+5.5) vs. LA Clippers (-105).
The Clippers have been in a surprising free-fall of late, having lost five of their past eight games with two of their three wins coming against the lottery-bound Trail Blazers. The Clippers lost their last game by 14 points, playing at home against a Joel Embiid-less 76ers squad. Indiana is playing for the second straight day in the same arena, having lost a 295-point track meet to the Los Angeles Lakers Sunday, and have won five of their [ast eight games including road wins over the Oklahoma City Thunder, Orlando Magic and Golden State Warriors. I expect this to be a competitive game and so does BPI which projects the Clippers 3.1-point favorites.
Odds provided by ESPN BET. Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com.
Charlotte Hornets at Cleveland Cavaliers
7 p.m. Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland
Records (Against the Spread)
Hornets: 17-53 (27-43-0)
Cavaliers: 43-28 (33-37-1)
Line: Cavaliers (-11.5) Total: 206.5
Money Line: Hornets (+450), Cavaliers (-650)
BPI Projection: Cavaliers by 14, straight up 90%, 219.4 total points.
Injury Report:
Hornets: JT Thor, (GTD – Shoulder); Bryce McGowens, (OUT – Knee); LaMelo Ball, (OUT – Ankle); Mark Williams, (OUT – Back); Cody Martin, (OUT – Ankle); Seth Curry, (OUT – Ankle); Kai Jones, (GTD – Hamstring)
Cavaliers: Dean Wade, (GTD – Knee); Max Strus, (GTD – Knee); Donovan Mitchell, (OUT – Nose); Ty Jerome, (OUT – Ankle)
Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks
7:30 p.m. State Farm Arena, Atlanta
Records (Against the Spread)
Celtics: 57-14 (39-29-3)
Hawks: 31-39 (24-46-0)
Line: Celtics (-10.5) Total: 224.5
Money Line: Celtics (-520), Hawks (+400)
BPI Projection: Celtics by 14.6, straight up 90%, 240.9 total points.
Injury Report:
Celtics: Derrick White, (GTD – Hand); Xavier Tillman, (GTD – Knee); Jrue Holiday, (OUT – Shoulder)
Hawks: Mouhamed Gueye, (OUT – Elbow); Onyeka Okongwu, (OUT – Toe); Seth Lundy, (OUT – Back); Jalen Johnson, (OUT – Ankle); AJ Griffin, (OUT – Ankle); Kobe Bufkin, (OUT – Toe); Trae Young, (OUT – Finger); Saddiq Bey, (OUT – Knee)
Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks
7:30 p.m. Madison Square Garden, New York
Records (Against the Spread)
Pistons: 12-59 (35-35-1)
Knicks: 42-28 (37-32-1)
Line: Knicks (-16.5) Total: 211.5
Money Line: Pistons (+1000), Knicks (-2000)
BPI Projection: Knicks by 13.2, straight up 88%, 227.7 total points.
Injury Report:
Pistons: Cade Cunningham, (GTD – Knee); Jalen Duren, (GTD – Back); Quentin Grimes, (GTD – Knee); Simone Fontecchio, (GTD – Toe); Taj Gibson, (GTD – Hamstring); Ausar Thompson, (OUT – Illness); Isaiah Stewart, (OUT – Hamstring); Stanley Umude, (OUT – Ankle)
Knicks: Julius Randle, (OUT – Shoulder); Mitchell Robinson, (OUT – Ankle); OG Anunoby, (OUT – Elbow)
Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors
7:30 p.m. Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Records (Against the Spread)
Nets: 26-45 (30-38-3)
Raptors: 23-48 (32-39-0)
Line: Nets (-6.5) Total: 219.5
Money Line: Nets (-250), Raptors (+210)
BPI Projection: Nets by 3.8, straight up 64%, 221.7 total points.
Injury Report:
Nets: Keon Johnson, (GTD – Illness); Cameron Johnson, (OUT – Toe); Dennis Smith Jr., (OUT – Hip); Keita Bates-Diop, (OUT – Lower Leg); Ben Simmons, (OUT – Back); Dariq Whitehead, (OUT – Lower Leg)
Raptors: D.J. Carton, (OUT – Ankle); Immanuel Quickley, (OUT – Personal); Jontay Porter, (OUT – Personal); Chris Boucher, (OUT – Knee); Jakob Poeltl, (OUT – Finger); RJ Barrett, (OUT – Personal); Scottie Barnes, (OUT – Hand)
Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls
8 p.m. United Center, Chicago
Records (Against the Spread)
Wizards: 13-58 (31-39-1)
Bulls: 34-37 (35-35-1)
Line: Bulls (-12.5) Total: 225.5
Money Line: Wizards (+550), Bulls (-900)
BPI Projection: Bulls by 11.6, straight up 85%, 228.9 total points.
Injury Report:
Wizards: Jordan Poole, (GTD – Ankle); Eugene Omoruyi, (OUT – Ankle); Kyle Kuzma, (OUT – Shoulder); Landry Shamet, (OUT – Calf); Tyus Jones, (OUT – Back); Bilal Coulibaly, (OUT – Wrist); Isaiah Livers, (OUT – Hip)
Bulls: Alex Caruso, (GTD – Ankle); Coby White, (GTD – Hip); Dalen Terry, (GTD – Calf); Julian Phillips, (OUT – Foot); Lonzo Ball, (OUT – Knee); Patrick Williams, (OUT – Foot); Zach LaVine, (OUT – Foot)
Portland Trail Blazers at Houston Rockets
8 p.m. Toyota Center, Houston
Records (Against the Spread)
Blazers: 19-52 (35-36-0)
Rockets: 35-35 (39-29-2)
Line: Rockets (-12.5) Total: 224.5
Money Line: Blazers (+500), Rockets (-800)
BPI Projection: Rockets by 10.9, straight up 84%, 228.3 total points.
Injury Report:
Blazers: Anfernee Simons, (GTD – Knee); Deandre Ayton, (GTD – Elbow); Jerami Grant, (GTD – Hamstring); Matisse Thybulle, (GTD – Ankle); Malcolm Brogdon, (OUT – Elbow); Shaedon Sharpe, (OUT – Abdomen); Robert Williams III, (OUT – Knee)
Rockets: Jabari Smith Jr., (OUT – Suspension); Cam Whitmore, (OUT – Knee); Alperen Sengun, (OUT – Ankle); Steven Adams, (OUT – Knee); Tari Eason, (OUT – Lower Leg)
Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs
8 p.m. Frost Bank Center, San Antonio
Records (Against the Spread)
Suns: 42-29 (31-39-1)
Spurs: 15-56 (34-36-1)
Line: Suns (-12.5) Total: 234.5
Money Line: Suns (-900), Spurs (+550)
BPI Projection: Suns by 8.8, straight up 78%, 237.9 total points.
Injury Report:
Suns: Damion Lee, (OUT – Knee)
Spurs: Victor Wembanyama, (GTD – Ankle); Charles Bassey, (OUT – Knee)
Memphis Grizzlies at Denver Nuggets
9 p.m. Ball Arena, Denver
Records (Against the Spread)
Grizzlies: 24-47 (34-37-0)
Nuggets: 50-21 (32-37-2)
Line: Nuggets (-15.5) Total: 212.5
Money Line: Grizzlies (+1000), Nuggets (-2000)
BPI Projection: Nuggets by 12.9, straight up 88%, 220.8 total points.
Injury Report:
Grizzlies: Brandon Clarke, (GTD – Achilles); Desmond Bane, (GTD – Back); Jake LaRavia, (GTD – Illness); John Konchar, (GTD – Heel); Lamar Stevens, (GTD – Thigh); Vince Williams Jr., (GTD – Knee); Luke Kennard, (OUT – Personal); Marcus Smart, (OUT – Finger); Yuta Watanabe, (OUT – Personal); Derrick Rose, (OUT – Groin)
Nuggets: Jamal Murray, (GTD – Ankle); Nikola Jokic, (GTD – Hip); Zeke Nnaji, (OUT – Thigh); Vlatko Cancar, (OUT – Knee)
Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz
9 p.m. Delta Center, Salt Lake City
Records (Against the Spread)
Mavericks: 41-29 (40-30-0)
Jazz: 29-42 (37-34-0)
Line: Mavericks (-8.5) Total: 237.5
Money Line: Mavericks (-375), Jazz (+290)
BPI Projection: Mavericks by 5.3, straight up 68%, 238.2 total points.
Injury Report:
Mavericks: Maxi Kleber, (GTD – Knee); Brandon Williams, (OUT – Wrist); Josh Green, (OUT – Ankle)
Jazz: Jordan Clarkson, (GTD – Groin); Lauri Markkanen, (GTD – Quadriceps); Omer Yurtseven, (GTD – Ankle); Kris Dunn, (OUT – Suspension)
Philadelphia 76ers at Sacramento Kings
10 p.m. Golden 1 Center, Sacramento
Records (Against the Spread)
76ers: 39-32 (38-33-0)
Kings: 41-29 (36-33-1)
Line: Kings (-9.5) Total: 221.5
Money Line: 76ers (+300), Kings (-400)
BPI Projection: Kings by 6.6, straight up 72%, 231.5 total points.
Injury Report:
76ers: De’Anthony Melton, (GTD – Back); Kyle Lowry, (GTD – Rest); Robert Covington, (GTD – Knee); Joel Embiid, (OUT – Knee)
Kings: Sasha Vezenkov, (GTD – Ankle); Kevin Huerter, (OUT – Shoulder); Trey Lyles, (OUT – Knee)
Indiana Pacers at LA Clippers
10:30 p.m. Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Records (Against the Spread)
Pacers: 40-32 (38-32-2)
Clippers: 44-26 (34-36-0)
Line: Clippers (-5.5) Total: 233.5
Money Line: Pacers (+180), Clippers (-210)
BPI Projection: Clippers by 3.1, straight up 61%, 245.7 total points.
Injury Report:
Pacers: Isaiah Wong, (OUT – Ankle); Bennedict Mathurin, (OUT – Shoulder)
Clippers: Jordan Miller, (GTD – Thumb); Moussa Diabate, (GTD – Hand); P.J. Tucker, (GTD – Calf); Russell Westbrook, (GTD – Hand)