Worth going national?
“There are certain states that just by quality and quantity you go [recruit in],” Meyer said, “the Texas, the Georgia, the Florida, the [New] Jersey, those are, off the top of my head, that we’re going to saturate a little bit, but then we go cherry-pick the best players at certain positions. … I think you see that when you see a breakdown of the class, you’d like to have 50 percent or more from the state of Ohio or within the footprint, and then you’re going to go cherry-pick.”
It stands to reason, doesn’t it? The hot coach at the hot school goes after the best players at each position, regardless of zip code. A national championship only solidifies a program’s standing and the coach can build on the publicity of being No. 1.
It’s not a philosophy unique to Meyer. Recruiting nationally has been done by other coaches who, having won national championships and besotted with becoming a “national brand,” have expanded beyond their traditional recruiting areas.
And there are plenty of reasons its allure should make sense. Because of how travel, technology and media have changed the speed with which we can interact, the nation feels like a smaller place. Certainly, the college football nation is a smaller place. Games are nationally televised. Oregon running backs coach Gary Campbell marveled at walking into an Alabama high school and seeing students wearing Ducks gear.
Recruiting nationally is easier. Prospects upload their highlight videos to easily accessible sites and recruits have shown their willingness to travel to team camps and scouting events to gain exposure. Meyer could watch film of tailback Ezekiel Elliott, from Burroughs High in St. Louis, or see linebacker Raekwon McMillan, a Georgia product, take part in the Buckeyes’ Friday Night Lights camp as easily as he could see tight end Nick Vannett at Westerville (Ohio) Central High.
It all makes sense, but what’s significant is that recruiting nationally hasn’t resulted in more championships. If it did, a team that won it all would do so again four or five years down the road once those picked cherries have morphed into veteran players. In fact, there are plenty of examples of programs that began to recruit nationally and not only failed to win another national championship, but failed to maintain their status as national contender.
And yes, the evidence is anecdotal, and there’s a lot besides where a coach recruits that determines whether a team stays at the top. There is staff continuity, and there’s fighting the self-satisfaction that settles into the gut of coach and player alike who wins a ring and there’s getting the best shot of every team every Saturday.
But take a look at USC a decade ago. The Trojans won their second consecutive AP national championship in 2004 with a roster of 82 Californians, 18 of whom started. One of the four out-of-state starters, linebacker Lofa Tatupu of Massachusetts, might as well have been a SoCal guy. He was a legacy; his father Mosi played for USC before a 13-year career with the New England Patriots.
Then USC’s coach, Pete Carroll, once at the top, decided that he wanted to — as Meyer put it — cherry-pick the nation’s best recruits. One of his USC assistants, Rocky Seto, told author Steve Bisheff for his 2009 book, “Always Compete,” that Carroll “tells us he only wants [out-of-state] kids who are capable of being first-round NFL draft picks.” The 14 freshmen signed by USC in February 2005 included five out-of-state players, four of whom made the USA Today Top 100.
But Carroll never won another national title. By 2009, the fifth year after he had shifted to his cherry-picking philosophy, USC had virtually the same number (81) of Californians on its roster as it had five years earlier. But the Trojans’ starting lineup included only 12 in-state players and 10 from out of state.
USC went 9-4 that season, got blown out by Oregon and Stanford and Carroll left for the Seattle Seahawks.
Alabama won the national championship that year. The 2009 Crimson Tide had a roster that included 59 Alabamians and players from a total of 13 states. Five years later, head coach Nick Saban’s team included 43 Alabamians and players from a total of 24 states. While Alabama remains a national contender and had the No. 1 recruiting class for three straight years, the Tide finished 12-2, and the team has stepped back from the heights it reached when it won three national titles in four years.
Alabama fans will tell you it’s not that simple. According to ESPN’s database, Alabama just isn’t producing as many players in recent years. Since 2006, Alabama has produced the ninth-most Power 5 recruits, behind states such as Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Not only does the state produce less top recruits, but the Tide contend with another Power 5 team in Auburn, plus other teams doing their own cherry-picking.
There’s also the theory that kids who don’t grow up understanding Alabama football and wanting more than anything to play for Alabama — or fill in your state university here — don’t make the same emotional commitment, that three-star players with heart supply the guts of a team with a smattering of five-star starters.
That’s impossible to measure and doesn’t take into account a success story like Stanford, which must recruit nationally because of its academic standards. The Cardinal team that won its second consecutive Pac-12 championship in 2013 included players from 30 states and three countries.
It’s probably smarter to stick to what can be quantified. To get an idea of the ebb and flow of national recruiting, take a look at Tennessee.
In 1969, when teams rarely appeared on television more than once or twice a year, the Volunteers won the SEC with 45 in-state players and a roster that included 12 states.
In 1998, when Tennessee won the first BCS championship, the Vols’ roster included 40 Tennesseans and players from 19 states. Coach Phillip Fulmer seized on the — what would you call it, national brand? — and expanded his recruiting footprint. By 2003, five years out, Tennessee included 34 Tennesseans and players from 22 states. The Vols went 10-3 and had begun their complete descent from national contention.
In 2014, Butch Jones took Tennessee to its first bowl in four years. The roster included 40 Tennesseans and players from only 13 states. That brings to light a corollary of expanding a program’s national brand. If you’re not winning, you don’t have one, which only adds to why national recruiting is so intoxicating.
Maybe, as legendary Texas coach Darrell Royal said, it’s better to dance with who brung ya.
Let’s watch Ohio State and see if half a roster of Ohioans is enough.