Worst gambling ‘bad beats’ of the weekend
Rob Nelson of ESPN Stats & Information revisits the worst bad beats from the weekend’s gambling action.
Note: Closing lines are courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and pick percentages are via Wunderdog sports.
Closing line: Packers -2.5, over/under 46.5
With zeros on the clock, the scoreboard read: Lions 23, Packers 21. But in what was one of the worst beats of the year, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers were given one last play. And as everyone has seen by now, Green Bay’s two-time league MVP found Richard Rodgers on a Hail Mary to give the Packers a four-point win. That play not only covered the spread for Green Bay, but sent the total over as well.
While this game will always be remembered by that final play, let’s not forget that the Lions led 20-0. At that point with less than six minutes to go in the third quarter, bettors who took Detroit and/or the under were looking great.
After the game, Detroit coach Jim Caldwell might as well been speaking for the folks who took Detroit and/or the under, “Tough one to lose, those are the ones that eat at you.”
Final score: Packers 27, Lions 23 (Packers cover and game goes over)
Closing line: O/U: 59
A wild second half along with a historic performance by Christian McCaffrey — who passed Barry Sanders for the most single-season all-purpose yards in FBS history — led to a few too many points for those on the under. At halftime, Stanford led 13-3 and the over/under of 59 wasn’t even in sight.
The third quarter featured four touchdowns, but Stanford led 27-16, and bettors on the under needed less than 16 points in the final quarter. A couple of more touchdowns made the score, 34-22. With three minutes to go, Stanford faced a fourth-and-3 from the USC 30-yard line and decided to go for it. The Cardinal converted and were a touchdown away from pushing the total over as the clock ran under two minutes. Stanford gave it to McCaffrey, and he ran it in from 10 yards out to put USC away. It also crushed those on the under, who lost after a 47-point second half made that 13-3 halftime score a distant memory.
Final score: Stanford 41, USC 22 (game goes over)
Closing line: Over/under 43.5
The Bears were favored for the first time in their past 17 games but showed why Vegas had been consistently pegging them as an underdog. The 53 percent of bettors who took the under will remember this game for three plays — all of which came in the final minutes.
With less than two minutes to go, the Bears led 20-13 and had pretty much shut down San Francisco’s offense throughout the game. On third-and-3, Blaine Gabbert scrambled up the middle for a 44-yard touchdown that, along with Phil Dawson‘s extra point, tied the game at 20. Before that touchdown, Gabbert never had a rush longer than 12 yards in his career.
Chicago’s Deonte Thompson returned the following kickoff all the way down to San Francisco’s 28-yard line. Six plays later, the Bears sent Robbie Gould out for a chip-shot 36-yard field goal to win it and most importantly for those on the under, have the total finish below 43.5. Gould, who had made 140 of his 146 (95.9 percent) career field goals that were 36 yards or less, pulled it wide left and the game headed to overtime.
After both teams went three-and-out on their first possessions, the 49ers won it when Gabbert found a wide open Torrey Smith for a 71-yard touchdown. It was the last of three game-defining plays that cost folks on the under a winning bet.
Final score: 49ers 26, Bears 20 in OT (game goes over)