Women’s March Madness underdogs deliver for sportsbooks
While previous years of the women’s tournament have seen the chalky favorites with big names dominate inferior opponents, the first week of the 2024 tournament saw double-digit favorites go 24-0 straight up but 8-16 against the spread — their worst record over the past four tournaments, per ESPN Stats & Information. It’s worth noting that in each of the previous three tournaments, at least one of those huge favorites lost straight up.
Top-four seeds were 12-20 ATS through the first two rounds in 2024, also the worst ATS record over the past four tournaments and a steep drop-off from 2023, when top-four seeds went 18-14 against the spread. Most notably, Iowa, Stanford and UConn all failed to cover large spreads as favorites in both of their games and no double-digit favorites covered in both the first and second round.
In fact, the only favorite to cover twice at all was Oregon State, who covered a 18.5-point spread against Washington State and a 7.5-point spread against Nebraska, per ESPN BET. The underdog mania was largely a boon for the sportsbooks.
“South Carolina and Iowa both failed to cover in their opening games, good for the book,” a BetMGM representative told ESPN. “Either or both of those teams winning and not covering are the best results for the sportsbook.”
Create up to 25 new women’s brackets beginning at the Sweet 16 and compete for $50K in total prizes! Tournament Challenge Second Chance
As expected, Caitlin Clark‘s Hawkeyes were a huge public side, attracting the most bets through the first two rounds at DraftKings. At Fanatics Sportsbook, Iowa attracted a book-leading 7.25% of all spread and moneyline tickets across the long weekend.
Iowa was the second-most bet team by tickets at BetMGM on Saturday, and the most-bet by bets and handle on Monday. ESPN BET reports that West Virginia covering against the Hawkeyes on Monday was its biggest win of the first two rounds, while Caesars says West Virginia-Iowa did 50% more handle than any other contest in the tournament thus far.
However, it wasn’t all positive for the sportsbooks when it came to Iowa. At DraftKings, the Hawkeyes were the first round’s second-most-backed team by handle behind only Holy Cross — who covered as a 38.5-point underdog.
Clark also delivered big time for bettors who backed her prop bets Monday. At BetMGM, Clark over 4.5 3-pointers made was the most-bet prop of the day and attracted a whopping 99% of bets and handle; Clark made five 3-pointers in the game. Additionally, Clark hit the over on her points prop (31.5) after being fouled and shooting free throws in the closing seconds. She finished with 32 points.
South Carolina’s second game was not hugely beneficial for the books either: At BetMGM, the Gamecocks were Sunday’s third-most-bet team as they routed North Carolina — a bad result for book — though the Tar Heels were one of the most-backed teams by tickets. The Gamecocks also came very close to covering as an astounding 55.5-point favorite in their opening game against Presbyterian.
But one other underwhelming favorite hugely benefited the sportsbooks: Ohio State, which was the only top-two seed to go down before the Sweet 16 after being upset by Duke on Sunday.
At BetMGM, OSU (-7.5) was the day’s most-bet wager by tickets and handle. The Buckeyes had also attracted 5.5% of the tickets to win the National Championship — fifth behind Iowa (34.3%), South Carolina (13.5%), LSU (8.5%) and UConn (7.3%), but ahead of USC (4.7%), Stanford (3.8%) and Texas (2.2%).
1. West Virginia vs. Iowa
2. Tennessee vs. NC State
3. Ole Miss vs. Notre Dame
4. Utah vs. Gonzaga
5. Kansas vs. USC
via ESPN BET (as of Tuesday)
Friday
Oregon State vs. Notre Dame (-2.5, 133.5)
Indiana vs. South Carolina (-15.5, 144.5)
NC State vs. Stanford (-5.5, 135.5)
Gonzaga vs. Texas (-5.5, 142.5)
Saturday
UCLA vs. LSU (-3.5, 146.5)
Colorado vs. Iowa (-8.5, 163.5)
Baylor vs. USC (-4.5, 134.5)
Duke vs. UConn (-8.5, 127.5)
via ESPN BET (as of Tuesday)
South Carolina Gamecocks (-155)
Iowa Hawkeyes (+500)
LSU Tigers (+900)
Stanford Cardinal (+1500)
UConn Huskies (+1600)
Texas Longhorns (+2000)
USC Trojans (+2000)
NC State Wolfpack (+3000)
UCLA Bruins (+3500)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+3500)
Oregon State Beavers (+6000)
Indiana Hoosiers (+10000)
Gonzaga Bulldogs (+10000)
Colorado Buffaloes (+10000)
Baylor Bears (+10000)
Duke Blue Devils (+15000)
ESPN staff writer David Purdum contributed to this column.