Women’s Final Four picks and bold predictions for 2023-24
More Teams. More Games.
Elle Duncan details some of the big storylines in women’s college basketball this season after a thrilling 2022-23 campaign. (3:01)
Just 19 days after the WNBA season ended, the 2023-24 women’s college basketball season begins Monday. The Las Vegas Aces won back-to-back championships in the WNBA; will the LSU Tigers repeat their NCAA title?
The South Carolina Gamecocks carried the No. 1 ranking throughout last season until their only loss: against the Iowa Hawkeyes in the national semifinals. The UConn Huskies were the last undefeated women’s champion, winning the program’s 11th NCAA title in 2016.
This season, we can expect LSU, UConn and South Carolina to be in the championship mix again, along with several other teams — some of which are still seeking their first Final Four.
Over the past few weeks, we have taken a look at the top 25 teams in the country, the top transfers, the top freshmen, the best nonconference games and schedules, the best of the Power 5, the projected players of the year in each conference and some of the biggest questions heading into the season.
Now, it’s time for some final preseason picks and predictions, from ESPN’s Charlie Creme, Alexa Philippou and Michael Voepel.
Voepel: It’s hard not to say LSU, because the defending champion was the story of the offseason by adding top transfers Aneesah Morrow and Hailey Van Lith. But as much as the Tigers seem to have developed their version of a “superteam,” coach Kim Mulkey said there are questions about how well and how quickly the players adjust in different roles.
LSU was criticized last season for its weak nonconference schedule, although the Tigers got the last laugh. Their schedule this season still isn’t that challenging, but they face Sweet 16 team Colorado (in the season opener Monday) and have a Final Four rematch with Virginia Tech on Nov. 30.
Can the Tigers handle the pressure of being favored? It won’t matter much to Mulkey if they have a couple of stumbles along the way, as long as LSU is ready for March.
Creme: What will Dawn Staley do with her blank canvas? South Carolina still has Final Four-level talent, but of all the top-10 teams, the Gamecocks have the most unknowns.
A handful of players return from a team that lost only one game a season ago, but every one of them will have a different role. Raven Johnson is now the point guard without the security of Kierra Fletcher or Zia Cooke. Kamilla Cardoso has averaged 16 minutes per game in her two seasons. How will she hold up having to play nearly double that with no Aliyah Boston? Te-Hina Paopao gives Staley a veteran in the backcourt, but the Oregon transfer must adapt to an entirely new system. Will Sania Feagin or Bree Hall, two highly recruited players three years ago, emerge as stars? Or will freshmen MiLaysia Fulwiley and Chloe Kitts make an immediate impact?
Philippou: UConn’s health. After two years of bad injury luck, particularly among stars Paige Bueckers and Azzi Fudd, we haven’t seen the full force (for an extended period of time) of what that dynamo duo can be. They’ve played only 15 (!) games together across two seasons in Storrs. If both of them, as well as other key players like Aaliyah Edwards, stay healthy, it’s hard not to consider UConn a title favorite.
Bueckers and Fudd seem to be in a good place physically and mentally heading into the season, and Geno Auriemma has said this might be his deepest team since 2016 — although it would have been even deeper if Jana El Alfy hadn’t gone down with an Achilles tear this summer. UConn fans have their fingers, toes, arms and knees crossed that no more Huskies join El Alfy on the bench this season with serious injuries.
Creme: Cameron Brink has two qualities other player of the year candidates don’t possess. She’s the only one who is dominant defensively. She was third nationally in blocks per game last season and has ranked in the top 15 all three years of her career. The 6-foot-4 senior is also the clear No. 1 scoring option at Stanford, giving her an opportunity to put up big numbers; she will likely have to for Stanford to be a championship contender.
The other two presumed top candidates after Clark — LSU’s Angel Reese and Bueckers — have All-American-caliber teammates. Indiana’s Mackenzie Holmes and Rickea Jackson of Tennessee also fall in the category of being the undisputed go-to players on their teams, but they aren’t the two-way player that Brink is. If Brink can maneuver through the invariable double-teams that are headed her way, she will turn into Clark’s top competition.
Voepel: It seems unlikely Clark’s prodigious stats — 27.8 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 8.6 APG — will decrease, or that the Hawkeyes will fall so far out of contention as to greatly reduce her odds of repeating. If she doesn’t, it won’t be because she lost the honor, but because someone else stepped up to grab it.
A healthy Bueckers seems the best bet, since she’s a previous national player of the year. Reese is the reigning Final Four Most Outstanding Player and top player for the preseason No. 1. But Bueckers and Reese are surrounded by a lot of proven talent that could reduce their individual stats. Brink has a lot of weight to carry, and if she can elevate Stanford into a top-10 team, she could be a strong NPOY candidate. Then again, will she take Pac-12 Player of the Year from last season’s winner, Utah’s Alissa Pili?
Philippou: It’d be either Bueckers or Reese. If LSU picks up where it left off, Reese will get more consideration for player of the year awards than last year, when the Tigers’ weak nonconference schedule overshadowed her impressive stats. Meanwhile, Auriemma has said Bueckers is an even better basketball player now than when she won player of the year.
That said, neither of those two will likely be leaned on as much as Iowa will lean on Clark. We’ve yet to see what Reese’s role looks like alongside so many new teammates, although she has spoken of the idea of everyone needing to sacrifice for the Tigers to repeat. And the Huskies’ depth means they also might not need to rely as heavily on Bueckers as they did her freshman year. Team success will factor in at some point, but it might not hurt a player as stellar as Clark.
Philippou: After appearing in its first Elite Eight since the Katie Smith era, Ohio State has to navigate the loss of Taylor Mikesell. But the Buckeyes could be a force in the Big Ten with all the players they have coming together: a healthy Jacy Sheldon, big-time transfer Celeste Taylor and Cotie McMahon, who is going to be in for a big year. The Buckeyes have their flaws, but those weaknesses are often nullified because of their effective press. That said, can they get through Iowa in conference play, which they failed to do last season in two meetings?
And as the only top-10 team with the same starting five as last season, Utah could be a force. The nonconference slate isn’t particularly exciting, but a Dec. 10 matchup versus South Carolina is one of the most intriguing matchups in the season’s first five weeks.
Creme: Even as she was carrying UConn at times last season, Aaliyah Edwards seemed to exist in the background of the Huskies’ injury issues. Edwards was one of only two Huskies to play in all 37 games, and averaged 16.6 points and 9.0 rebounds. She was one of the 10 or 15 best players in the country. It just didn’t seem that all Edwards did to keep the Huskies afloat was fully recognized on a national level. That has continued into this preseason, with so much discussion surrounding the return of Bueckers and what the health of players like Azzi Fudd and Caroline Ducharme will be. It will be interesting to see if Edwards can be even better with more talent around her.
Voepel: Last season was disappointing for the Big 12, which didn’t have a team in the Sweet 16 for the first time since the league began in 1996-97. This season, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF join the league as Texas and Oklahoma are getting ready to exit. Next season, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah come in while the Longhorns and Sooners head to the SEC.
Will preseason favorite Texas make the most of its last Big 12 season? The Longhorns shared the regular-season title last season with Oklahoma, then Iowa State beat both in the Big 12 tournament. Texas scored just 51 points in both its league tournament final loss to the Cyclones and in its NCAA second-round loss to Louisville.
The Longhorns, behind Big 12 Preseason Player of the Year Rori Harmon, hope they can leave the league as champions.
Creme: There’s no question the race to the Final Four is more wide-open this season. At this time last season, South Carolina was a given and a heavy favorite to win it all. Even with the influx of talent at LSU, the Tigers shouldn’t be considered an automatic to reach Cleveland. As many as 10 teams might be good enough to be crowned a national champion, but I’m not sure there is a true Cinderella. If I am picking a team outside the top 10, it’s Texas. A few things would have to come together for the Longhorns — good health, individual offensive improvement, favorable NCAA tournament matchups — but the Longhorns have veterans, play high-level defense all the time and have an All-American leading the way in Harmon.
Voepel: Truly wide-open suggests a team outside the top four seeds reaches the Final Four. That has happened just four times since 2000, and it’s not likely this season. Early-round victories by lower seeds aren’t uncommon, but monumental upsets in the regional rounds are rarer.
Virginia Tech and Iowa reaching Dallas last season was noteworthy, despite their being Nos. 1 and 2 seeds. It was the Hokies’ first trip to the Final Four, and the Hawkeyes’ first in 30 years. This season, the likes of Indiana, Ohio State, Utah or UCLA making it to Cleveland would be a big deal: the first Final Four during the NCAA era for the Hoosiers, Bruins and Utes, and the second for the Buckeyes (first was 1993).
Creighton could be more of a true Cinderella. The Bluejays made the 2022 Elite Eight, and six players from that team are still with Creighton.
Philippou: Unlike previous seasons where one could confidently pick one or two teams to make the Final Four, that’s not the case this season for various reasons (more transfer movement means more uncertainty, key injury questions, roster turnover, etc.). LSU and UConn were the “easiest” Final Four picks for me, but I agonized over the other two.
Neither is a Cinderella, but I can see a world in which Tennessee or South Carolina makes it to Cleveland. Obviously the Gamecocks wouldn’t be coming out of nowhere, having been to the past three Final Fours, but making it back there would be quite impressive considering their roster turnover. As for Tennessee, Lady Vols fans have been waiting on Kellie Harper’s squad to break through, and perhaps the tandem of returners Rickea Jackson and Tamari Key alongside transfers Jewel Spear and Destinee Wells can finally make that happen.
Creme: As many as five teams will hold the No. 1 ranking at some point. South Carolina went wire-to-wire as the top-ranked team in the country last season. That won’t happen in 2023-24. LSU, UConn, Iowa, Utah, UCLA and maybe even Virginia Tech, Ohio State and South Carolina will take a turn atop the rankings.
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We are about to embark on the most balanced season in recent memory, and there will be no clear-cut favorite heading into March. A few conference races will look like that too. Expect the ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 races to come down to the final week of league play, with multiple teams still in the mix for a title.
Philippou: This might not be likely, but it’s possible: For the first time since the turn of the century, the Final Four will have completely different teams playing in it in consecutive years. After Stanford and Indiana bowed out of the NCAA tournament in the first weekend last season, UConn fell in the Sweet 16, South Carolina lost its first game of the entire season in the national semifinal and LSU managed to win its first championship in Mulkey’s second year. I’m going all-in with expecting the unexpected.
Voepel: After the early-round wipeout last season, the Big 12 will get at least three teams into the Sweet 16 this season.
Which teams will reach the Final Four?
Creme: LSU, UConn, UCLA, Virginia Tech
Philippou: LSU, UConn, Ohio State, Utah
Voepel: LSU, UConn, UCLA, South Carolina
Which team will win the NCAA title?
Creme: UConn over LSU
Philippou: UConn over LSU
Voepel: LSU over UConn
Who will be the national player of the year?
Creme: Caitlin Clark, Iowa
Philippou: Caitlin Clark, Iowa
Voepel: Caitlin Clark, Iowa
Who will win coach of the year?
Creme: Cori Close, UCLA
Philippou: Lynne Roberts, Utah
Voepel: Kenny Brooks, Virginia Tech
Who is the preseason freshman of the year?
Creme: JuJu Watkins, USC
Philippou: JuJu Watkins, USC
Voepel: JuJu Watkins, USC
Which players will make the All-America first team?
Creme: Caitlin Clark, Iowa; Paige Bueckers, UConn; Angel Reese, LSU; Cameron Brink, Stanford; Mackenzie Holmes, Indiana
Philippou: Paige Bueckers, UConn; Caitlin Clark, Iowa; Angel Reese, LSU; Cotie McMahon, Ohio State; Alissa Pili, Utah
Voepel: Caitlin Clark, Iowa; Paige Bueckers, UConn; Angel Reese, LSU; Cameron Brink, Stanford; Mackenzie Holmes, Indiana
Team listed first/alone is the consensus pick in each conference; teams listed in parentheses received at least one vote. * Denotes a unanimous pick from our panel to win the conference race.
ACC: Virginia Tech Hokies*
America East: Vermont Catamounts*
American: South Florida Bulls*
Atlantic 10: Rhode Island Rams (Saint Louis Billikens)
ASUN: Florida Gulf Coast Eagles*
Big 12: Baylor Bears (Texas Longhorns)
Big East: UConn Huskies*
Big Sky: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (Eastern Washington Eagles)
Big South: High Point Panthers*
Big Ten: Ohio State Buckeyes (Indiana Hoosiers)
Big West: Hawai’i Rainbow Wahine (UC Irvine Anteaters)
Colonial: Towson Tigers*
CUSA: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders*
Horizon: Green Bay Phoenix (Cleveland State Vikings)
Ivy: Princeton Tigers*
MAAC: Niagara Purple Eagles (Siena Saints)
MAC: Toledo Rockets*
MEAC: Norfolk State Spartans (Howard Bison)
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa Panthers (Drake Bulldogs)
Mountain West: UNLV Lady Rebels*
NEC: Sacred Heart Pioneers*
Ohio Valley: Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles (UT Martin Skyhawks)
Pac-12: Utah Utes (UCLA Bruins)
Patriot: Holy Cross Crusaders*
SEC: LSU Tigers*
Southern: No consensus (Wofford Terriers, East Tennessee State Bucs, Chattanooga Mocs)
Southland: SE Louisiana Lady Lions*
SWAC: Jackson State Lady Tigers (Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions)
Summit: South Dakota State Jackrabbits*
Sun Belt: James Madison Dukes (Southern Miss Lady Eagles)
West Coast: Gonzaga Bulldogs*
WAC: Southern Utah Thunderbirds (Grand Canyon Lopes)