Will Josh Allen be back with the Jaguars in 2024?
“I’m a legacy guy,” Allen said. “I have a great opportunity to continue to leave a legacy here and I’m going to continue that as much as I can and stand on that.
“At the end of the day, I play the game because I love it. Some people don’t play the game. They make decisions and so the decisions being made, they’re final. So, I let God be God and let it sort out. I did as much as I can. I did what I can to do on my part and my agent guy is going to [do his part].”
After a career season in which he broke the Jaguars’ franchise record for sacks in a single season (17.5), Allen is regarded as one of the top looming free agents this offseason. How important is it that the Jaguars bring him back? And does the way they do it — by franchise tag or extension — matter?
Every NFL executive talks about the importance of building through the draft. Constructing a roster by relying on free agency can produce pockets of success — that’s what propelled Jaguars to the AFC Championship Game in 2017 — but it isn’t sustainable. Consistent success in the NFL depends on drafting and developing players.
That’s the way good franchises operate. Those teams have a core of players they drafted and developed, including key players on their second or third contracts with the team. Kansas City’s core of Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Chris Jones has been complemented with young draftees like Creed Humphrey, Trent McDuffie and Isiah Pacheco, for example.
But the Jaguars? In 2023, they had just four drafted players on their second contract: offensive tackle Cam Robinson, defensive end Dawuane Smoot, defensive tackle DaVon Hamilton and punter Logan Cooke.
That’s an indictment of the franchise’s struggles in the draft, especially in the first round from 2008-2020. Of the 14 first-round draft picks in that span, only defensive tackle Tyson Alualu (2010) and quarterback Blake Bortles (2014) signed extensions. The rest were either traded, cut or suspended before either their rookie contracts expired or they were not re-signed.
Considering that 12 of those 14 players were drafted in the top 10 — including six in the top five — it’s not hard to figure out why the Jaguars have had just three winning seasons and two playoff appearances in that span. Here’s a breakdown of how poor the Jaguars have drafted:
Three players — offensive tackle Luke Joeckel (2013), defensive tackle Taven Bryan (2018) and linebacker K’Lavon Chaisson (2020) — did not have their fifth-year option picked up and played out their four-year rookie contract.
Five players — offensive tackle Eugene Monroe (2009), quarterback Blaine Gabbert (2011), defensive end Dante Fowler Jr. (2015), cornerback Jalen Ramsey (2016), and cornerback CJ Henderson (2020) — were traded before their rookie contracts expired. Henderson was traded before his second season.
Receiver Justin Blackmon (2012) was suspended for multiple violations of the NFL’s drug policy.
Defensive end Derrick Harvey (2008) was cut before training camp began in 2011 and running back Leonard Fournette (2017) was cut during training camp in 2020.
First-round picks — especially those in the top 10 — are supposed to be foundation players in a franchise. If not All-Pros and/or Pro Bowlers, they’re at least supposed to develop into very good players who make impact plays and help win games.
That pretty much sums up Allen’s career. He finished second in the NFL in sacks in 2023, breaking Calais Campbell‘s single-season record of 14.5 set in 2017, and is second on the franchise’s all-time sack list (45). Allen needs 10 more to tie Tony Brackens.
He also made one of the biggest plays in Jaguars history when he scooped up a fumble forced by safety Rayshawn Jenkins and returned it 37 yards for a touchdown and the winning score in the Jaguars’ 20-16 Week 18 victory over Tennessee in 2022. That gave the Jaguars the AFC South title for just the second time in franchise history.
So, where do things stand with Allen and the Jaguars right now?
In short, still in limbo. The franchise tag window opens in one week on Feb. 20 and lasts until March 5. General manager Trent Baalke wouldn’t say whether his plan is to use the tag on Allen — which would pay the edge rusher an estimated $22.8 million fully guaranteed — to buy extra time to negotiate an extension or only use it if the sides can’t come to an agreement on a long-term deal.
All Baalke would say is, “Josh Allen is going to be a Jaguar next year.”
The Jaguars had a chance to sign Allen to an extension last offseason but instead had him play on his fifth-year option. It’s a decision that may end up costing the Jaguars significantly after Allen’s massive season.
The Chicago Bears gave a four-year extension worth $98 million ($72.9 million guaranteed) to defensive end Montez Sweat in November. That deal has $24.5 million in average annual salary, which ranks fifth among edge rushers. And that might now be a starting point for Allen and the Jaguars.
“I think every situation is different,” Baalke said at his season recap news conference when asked about signing draft picks to second contracts. “When I look at a player, does he deserve to be paid or doesn’t he? Whether he’s a draft pick of ours or a free agent that’s come in or a free agent from some other team. Do they deserve to get paid? You hope to not pay a premium on a guy that you’ve drafted, simply because you get to do it a year earlier. The market hasn’t had a chance to weigh in on it. You also want to pay guys fairly.”
The Jaguars lack young, cornerstone players who were drafted and developed on the current roster. Allen has become one of the NFL’s best pass-rushers. And it has been a while since one of the Jaguars’ first-round draft picks has been so emphatic about remaining in Jacksonville.
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Considering all that, would it be irresponsible to not extend Allen? Would making him play on a franchise tag be insulting to Allen? And if the team did want Allen to play on the franchise tag in another prove-it move, would it be willing to risk the chance that Allen would consider not signing the franchise tag by the July 15 deadline?
They are all questions that Allen understandably didn’t want to get into as Jacksonville heads into the offseason.
“I don’t really know about timing or what at the end of the day,” he said. “… I want to be a Jag, man. The right way. I’m going to do it the right way. And that’s all I have to say about that.”