What you need to know to draft a fantasy hockey league today
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Sidney Crosby and former NHL COO John Collins look back at the first Winter Classic 15 years later. (5:47)
While the NFL fantasy season approaches conclusion, and we remain months away from cobbling together our own MLB squads, why not scratch the fantasy sports-loving itch by launching a fresh NHL league? Whether it’s your first of the season, or a clean-slate do-over, come armed with the benefit of gauging individual performances to date.
ESPN’s Fantasy Analysts Sean Allen and Victoria Matiash chat about how they would – or wouldn’t – approach the fantasy draft differently if starting a league now.
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Launching an NHL fantasy league today, who am I now targeting first overall?
SA: For me it’s Auston Matthews and I’m not thinking about it for much longer than a second. He’s two steps above his closest competition for fantasy scoring this season. Fantasy points per 60? Matthews has 10.48 to Nikita Kucherov‘s 9.51. Fantasy points per game? Matthews is at 3.72 to Kucherov’s 3.43. Those are massive gaps on rate stats.
VM: If you could guarantee me that Matthews – who plays the game hard – will compete in every match between now and April, I would fight you for him. But nobody can make that promise. So I’ll go with Kucherov and his 58 points and counting. The Lightning forward has never looked a more dynamic and dangerous and loose.
Who am I most disappointed in today – and avoiding – based on last season’s stats?
VM: I’m most disenchanted with Tage Thompson (recently out for personal reasons), who projected as a top-tier fantasy performer after last year’s explosive output. His average of 1.8 fantasy points/game since returning from an upper-body injury in early December hardly aligns with that prognostication. Something’s off. While we all know the Sabres center can still turn matters around, he doesn’t merit targeting early in a fantasy draft at present.
SA: Thompson certainly hasn’t lived up to expectations after registering 207 fantasy points last season. Two other players finished even higher, tied for eighth among skaters in fantasy scoring with 222 points. And they’ve both been hexed for the current campaign.
I have Matthew Tkachuk currently projected for 137.9 fantasy points this season and Jason Robertson for 167.9. Both have been healthy.
While Tkachuk’s totals have been much lower, I feel more disappointed in backing Robertson because he seemed like such a sure thing: Two seasons of track record with 40-plus goals, a natural scoring progression coming into his prime seasons and a Dallas Stars team that can keep up with anyone in the league.
The goalie situation around the whole league seems lousy. Who do you trust?
SA: Trust no one. It’s a good catchphrase and will certainly protect you from harm, but eventually you have to trust someone. The goaltender situation is lousier than last season, but only by a little bit. Through the Christmas break this season there have been 1,054 starts by goaltenders to the tune of 1.84 fantasy points per 60 minutes (a 2.96 goals-against average for those who like traditional stats). Last year at the break with 1,082 starts by goaltenders, they managed a collective 1.98 FPP60 (2.95 GAA).
But the question is specifically about who to trust. If we infer the meaning as to who are the current set-and-forget goaltenders in the NHL for fantasy hockey, I can trim my answer down to four goalies: Cam Talbot, Connor Hellebuyck, Jeremy Swayman and Jake Oettinger. They are the only four goaltenders that have allowed fewer goals than their opponent has averaged in at least two-thirds of their starts and earned more fantasy points than their opponent has allowed on average in at least two-thirds of their starts. Frederik Andersen was on this list too, but only had six starts before the blood-clotting issue surfaced.
VM: The top answer is Hellebuyck. Oettinger remains out hurt, Talbot is starting to look his more ordinary self, and Swayman shares the net with Linus Ullmark on a Bruins’ team that’s starting to perceptibly miss Patrice Bergeron. While the Jets’ No. 1 is averaging 4.5 fantasy points/contest for a strong Winnipeg club this past month.
My faith in Filip Gustavsson is also warming back up after a wrought start to this year’s fantasy relationship with Minnesota’s No. 1. It helps that the Wild appear in much better shape as a unit under John Hines as coach.
Which prolific players, based on name recognition, will I be tempted to draft but absolutely should not?
VM: Since Alex Ovechkin is the most obvious answer, I’ll offer up Erik Karlsson. With only four assists in more than a month, he hasn’t scored a goal since Nov. 25. Nary a point for the offensive-defenseman when the Penguins beat up the Islanders 7-0 the other night. How? Unless Karlsson starts blocking a lot more shots than he has in recent years – won’t happen – I’m not the least bit interested in selecting the reigning Norris winner as fantasy asset in earlier rounds.
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SA: This question certainly feels like a dig at Ovi. I mean, he’s currently projecting at 128th among skaters for the remainder of the season and the Capitals power play hasn’t given us strong signs of suddenly becoming a beast, so… maybe it’s fair play.
Maybe he is the answer because there is no world in which Ovechkin makes it to the fourth round of your draft, let alone the 10th or 11th, which is the value he’s earned this season. Don’t take him early.
Which player is trying to fool me the most with how many fantasy points they have right now?
VM: I adore and appreciate what Frank Vatrano has accomplished on the fantasy front with the Ducks this season. Inarguably impressive. There’s also no chance – zero/nil/zilch – he continues to march on with that outlying average of 2.4 fantasy points/game. In fact, we’re already seeing a relapse from the 29-year-old, now on Anaheim’s second scoring line and power play, who drifted through nine games without a point this month. Still, full respect for blowing us all away for a bit.
SA: MacKenzie Weegar sits 14th among all skaters as of Thursday, fourth among all defenders, with 90.6 fantasy points. That’s a little too lofty an end-game goal for someone mirroring the production that Jacob Trouba gives us every season — physical and minimal points. Mid-to-late 30s overall and outside the top 10 D is about the highest of hopes I have for Weegar to end up. It’s tough to keep getting enough fantasy points without scoring many actual points.
Which disappointing star will bounce back in the second half?
SA: Ilya Sorokin has to channel Wednesday’s embarrassment at the hands of the Penguins and make it the turning point of what’s been a disappointing season for arguably the top-projected goaltender coming into the season.
The Islanders defense is solid when healthy, so let’s get Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock, and Scott Mayfield back into the lineup and get Sorokin back on track. At least, that’s my hope.
VM: Agreed, Sorokin is due an upswing in fantasy performance, especially once those key defenders rejoin the fold. I also expect better from Matthew Tkachuk – who you have projected for only 137.9 fantasy points by season’s end – through the winter into spring. It’s not like Tkachuk is going to float that dismal 4.1 shooting percentage all year long. Impossible. Plus, the aggressive forward is still hitting and shooting a-plenty, while seeing valuable minutes on a Florida scoring line and top power play. I smell a comeback – vaulting him significantly past 137.9 points – on the fantasy horizon.
Knowing what we know now, which mid-round players should I target?
VM: Give me Andrei Svechnikov all day long as a mid-round pick. The Carolina sniper finally looks his usual self – alongside Sebastian Aho – after a weird, injury-riddled start to 2023-24.
SA: I think the Blues coaching change has had a positive impact on the club’s offense and I think it will resonate through Justin Faulk for the remainder of the campaign.
I also feel like Sean Couturier is still the heart and catalyst of this upstart Flyers team, and seems to just be getting his sea legs back after missing all of last season. He could be a nice surprise down the stretch if the offense ticks up even a little bit.
Which injured star will have the biggest impact in 2024?
SA: Frederik Andersen has the best situation to return to that would yield the best fantasy production for the remainder of the season, I’m just not sure how confident I am in an imminent return. But because of the stability he would offer the Carolina Hurricanes crease and the upside they would have with steady goaltending, he’s still my choice here.
Pyotr Kochetkov just hasn’t quite nailed down the fort with Andersen out, so the crease is very much reclaimable.
VM: While we’re all rooting hard for Freddy’s healthy return, there’s extra comfort in knowing Kyle Connor should be ready to rock by the All-Star break at the latest. At which point he can be counted on to continue filling the net, and piling up fantasy scoring, with regularity.