What Kobe’s retirement means for Lakers’ young core
I swear I still have permanent hearing loss in my left ear, the result of sitting directly in front of a Kobe Bryant enthusiast having a two-hour conniption. And you know what? It was worth it. I’d do it all again.
When it comes to writing about our particularly geeky pastime, Kobe has always been there. He was only in his fourth season when I started writing on fantasy basketball.
Now, I’m being asked to contemplate life without him? How does a lineup evolve beyond losing its alpha dog of nearly 20 years?
Hopefully, last night’s season-high 31-point throwback line portends a rest-of-the-season upswing.
Before the Achilles injury, Kobe was putting up some of the best numbers — if not the best — of any (ahem) elder statesman in NBA history. That wasn’t too long ago. Kobe certainly has it in him to sustain bursts of semi-vintage effectiveness.
I’m not going to belabor Kobe’s current difficulties (15.8 PTS, .301 FG%, .208 3PT%, 9.5 PER).
Now that this season will be defined by Kobe’s retirement tour? It’s going to help all involved, in real-life terms and with fantasy production. It helps properly align expectations.
First, we know Kobe is going to play as much as possible.
This is his team. Expect Kobe to be on the court as much as possible. It means playing more like 30-34 minutes a night. It means being rested in certain back-to-backs. But I’d set the over/under at 63 games.
Second, we know Kobe will keep shooting and controlling possession.
Kobe’s field goal percentage may be down. But his usage rate is a still-elite 29.4. That’s good for 12th in the NBA. Unlike other elder statesmen like Tim Duncan and Dirk Nowitzki, Kobe hasn’t evidenced the same openness to deferring to younger teammates.
Third, it means the pressure is off.
Kobe and the Lakers will march through the Farewell Tour with the lowest of expectations. On a bad team, low expectations boost fantasy production. (Ask a Sixers fan.)
The warm haze of much-deserved appreciation will obfuscate the Lakers’ struggles. As they should. This is one of the all-time greats rounding the far turn. Hopefully, everyone can calm down about the 1-for-14 nights and value the arc of an amazing career.
The surety of a final campaign means Kobe is worth rostering in deeper leagues. He’s not someone I’d target in a trade, but he’s someone to hang onto.
Kobe’s legs could return for longer, more sustained periods of one to two weeks, perhaps even a month. At the least, Kobe’s fantasy prospects are trending up. I could see him averaging 18-20 points per game by All-Star Weekend.
But what does Kobe’s pending retirement mean for the rest of the Lakers?
Efficiency-Wise, it’s tough to state that the Lakers have been a better team with Kobe on the court. The Lakers’ most-used lineup of 2015-16 becomes a more efficient offensive unit when Kobe is swapped out for, say, Metta World Peace.
That’s not to bleat that in real-life terms the Lakers are better with Kobe off the court.
They’re slower. You might be surprised that the Lakers play at much higher pace when Kobe is on the floor.
A lot of it has to do with what Kobe’s legs can do at this stage. Instead of breaking down defenses with isolation-type possessions, Kobe is camping out behind the 3-point line. And taking a lot of 3s. As in 7.8 per game. Problem is, Kobe’s only hitting 22 percent of those 3s. All of those deep misses increases pace.
In fantasy, higher pace is a plus. A higher pace means more of everything. More volume. More points, 3s, rebounds, steals and blocks.
A high pace is not necessarily a harbinger of high efficiency (again, ask a Sixers fan). Look at the above differences across the two lineups in effective field goal percentage and offensive rating.
The Lakers effective field goal percentage (eFG%) jumps from 43.5 percent to 48.7 percent without Kobe. Their opponents’ eFG% drops from 50.9 percent to 44.2 percent. That means the Lakers are converting more of their attempts from the floor into points while making their opponents convert less.
Their offensive rating is almost 10 points better (102.0 to 92.7). Their defensive rating is over six points better (99.5 to 105.8)
It’s early in the season. These are taken from relatively small sample sizes. I’m betting the with-Kobe metrics improve. But this is a now a retirement tour. In fantasy and DFS, you need to circle Lakers games on your calendar. You want to target players going up against them.
The Lakers are giving up 105.7 points per game, fifth-worst in the NBA. When your players play the Lakers, expect a moderately paced, defensively casual matchup.
Fantasy-wise, the Lakers are Kobe, a narcoleptic Roy Hibbert, and some young upside (Jordan Clarkson, D’Angelo Russell, Julius Randle) that has a lot to learn.
The subtext of a retirement tour is that it’s time to secretly collect Ping-Pong balls. The Lakers’ first-round pick for 2016 goes to Phoenix (for Steve Nash, remember?). But it’s top-3 protected.
Don’t you see what’s happening here? It’s a lower-than-low-expectations dynamic, lovingly concealed by Kobe’s retirement.
That tends to produce fantasy production, even on a bad team like the Lakers (ask Robert Covington).
For DFS, the Kobe situation presents an interesting dynamic. Kobe’s boom-or-bust potential and overpriced brand name makes him a shaky play. But on the nights when we know Kobe will sit, it gooses the value of the Lakers young upside.
Look at the Lakers’ box score from Nov. 16. It was a Kobe-less game on the road at Phoenix. The Lakers still lost 120-101. But Los Angeles played at a slower pace (93.5) with higher offensive efficiency (Off Rtg 108.0).
And while none of the Lakers broke out in Kobe’s absence, the availability of extra minutes and touches trickled down through their lineup.
Jordan Clarkson scored 20 points on 12 shots. D’Angelo Russell attempted 13 shots. And to date, it was Roy Hibbert‘s last double-digit game in points (14 points, seven rebounds). Attesting to Russell’s still-embryonic floor generalship, Roy Hibbert actually led the team in assists with…three.
(The Lakers, with or without Kobe, are dreadful in the assist column. They are 28th in the NBA at 18.3 assists per game.)
Going forward, what does a looming Kobe-less existence mean for fantasy-worthy Lakers? Let’s focus on the three players that form the Lakers’ young core.
Jordan Clarkson, PG/SG
After Kobe went down last season, Clarkson became a feel-good rookie story. He took advantage of the increased minutes and touches and played his way onto the All-Rookie team. The question going into this season was how playing with Kobe would affect his development.
So far, it’s been mostly positive.
Clarkson’s field goal attempts have gone up (10.1 to 13.4) while his field goal percentage has improved (.448 to .473). Best of all, Clarkson’s 3-point production has doubled (0.6 3-pointers per game to 2.1). His 3-point percentage has jumped from .314 to .413.
Clarkson’s fantasy future is bright. He’s evidenced some expected inconsistency this year, but I expect his production to level out as the season progresses. His dual positional eligibility is a nice underrated bonus. Come 2016-17, he could be worthy of a mid-round pick.
D’Angelo Russell, PG/SG
No player is going to immediately benefit more from Kobe’s retirement announcement than Russell. Still only 19, Russell came into the season with the burden heavy expectations. Most of those expectations are tied to being chosen above Jahlil Okafor, Kristaps Porzingis and Emmanuel Mudiay.
Now the story has shifted. And Byron Scott is starting to give Russell more responsibility and playing time. Russell’s last-five averages; 11.4 points, 3.4 assists and 4.8 rebounds … and most importantly 30.8 minutes.
(At 6-foot-5, Russell’s rebounding is already a nice under-the-radar bonus.)
The keys for Russell’s improvement going forward? 3-point percentage, usage rate, and assist-to-turnover ratio.
Russell is only shooting 40.6 percent from the floor and 29.7 percent from deep. He’s a 19-year-old rookie. Bad percentages are expected.
But playing with Kobe means playing off the ball. And that means Russell will receive plenty of looks from behind the arc. Once Russell’s 3-point shot becomes more reliable, his percentages will climb.
An NBA point guard (even one playing alongside Kobe) needs to push his usage rate higher than 20.1 (35th among PGs). Why the low usage rate? Why the lack of early trust from Byron Scott?
Turnovers. For point guards, usage rate begets assists and turnovers. And Russell’s assist-to-turnover ratio is an anemic 1.67. That’s 43rd amongst point guards.
He’s going to play a ton of minutes. He benefits from the looser, low gravity environment. In fantasy, he’s a good buy-low opportunity.
Julius Randle, PF
Here’s another player who’s already showing signs of post-retirement announcement-improvement. Randle’s posted three straight double-doubles. Last night against Washington he came within a box out of a 20-board performance.
Randle is already turning into a reliable double-double player. But unless your league counts double-doubles, a fantasy power forward needs statistical diversification. Going forward, I’m hoping for improvement from the field and in the defensive categories.
Amongst power forwards, Randle is at or near the bottom in every shooting category. Randle is shooting 43.9 percent from the field. That’s good for 15th amongst power forwards. And unless you’re taking a ton of 3s, field goal percentage is a must for above-average fantasy power forward production. But Randle’s not hitting his 3s either (0-for-5 this season).
Again, low expectations will help. Randle should be building his box scores from the inside out. That means prioritizing rebounding.
And maybe, just maybe … he’ll block a shot.
Even more than the poor shooting, nothing is going to handcuff Randle’s fantasy potential back more than his lack of blocked shots. Randle is tied for 26th amongst power forwards with just 0.6 per game. He’s 41st in blocks per foul (0.19). And unless he’s canning 3s a la Kevin Love, an above-average fantasy power forward has to block shots.
Randle’s quickness has helped in one out-of-position category. Steals. Randle ranks ninth amongst power forwards in steals at 0.8 per game. But without blocks, or 3s or league-leading rebounding? Double-doubles aren’t going to lift a power forward much past eighth-round value.