Week 5 betting odds, picks, tips: Dolphins primed for another blowout victory?
Betting analysts Eric Moody, Tyler Fulghum and Seth Walder are here to provide their thoughts.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.
Fulghum: My favorite way to bet this game is for it to go OVER the total. I also don’t mind using the Rams (+10.5) as a teaser leg. This game, on the fast track of SoFi Stadium, features plenty of offensive firepower on both sides. Philly’s offense has ripped off three straight games of 400-plus yards of offense, averaging 439.0 per game and 31.0 points per contest. If you like trends, Overs are 10-4 in Hurts’ past 14 starts.
On the other side of the ball, Sean McVay’s offense is consistently creating explosive plays in the passing game. They rank sixth in the entire league in offensive EPA, one spot ahead of the Eagles. It may be tough to run on Philadelphia, but Matthew Stafford should be able to move the ball through the air if his offensive line can hold up against a ferocious Eagles pass rush. Oh, and it certainly doesn’t hurt that WR Cooper Kupp could make his season debut.
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Fulghum: This is a tough spot for the Giants. I can easily develop a game script where the Dolphins blow them out of Miami. New York is visiting South Florida on a short week off a Monday night loss and dealing with a sputtering offense because of significant injuries. LT Andrew Thomas (hamstring) appears likely to miss his fourth straight game and RB Saquon Barkley (ankle) is questionable at best.
The Giants’ defense ranks 30th in the league in points allowed per game (30.5). Meanwhile, Miami’s offense is fully healthy with WR Jaylen Waddle back, and now RB De’Von Achane” title=”De’Von Achane posters”>De’Von Achane has added even more explosive playmaking ability to the offense. I’m not comfortable at all backing the Giants in this spot. The Dolphins look poised to win this one running away.
Moody: The Texans taking on the Falcons. C.J. Stroud is the front-runner to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. With 1,212 yards through four starts, he’s second only to Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Andrew Luck for the most yards by a rookie through four starts. The Texans find themselves with a 2-2 record and have won consecutive games by 20 or more points. After scoring only 13 points in their past two games, the Falcons have struggled on offense with Desmond Ridder. An Atlanta offensive line that has surrendered 16 sacks could have trouble against the Texans’ defense, which ranks second in pass rush win rate. I’m taking Houston here to cover the spread.
Moody: I’m also excited about the Bengals traveling to Arizona. Nobody expected a Cardinals team with Joshua Dobbs and instead of Kyler Murray under center would be this competitive. Arizona is 5-2 against the spread in its past seven games and plays a Bengals team that has been one of the league’s biggest disappointments. Cincinnati is 0-4-1 against the spread in its past five games. Joe Burrow is still nursing a calf injury, while Tee Higgins injured his ribs last week. The Bengals’ offensive line also ranks 31st in pass block win rate. Also, Cincinnati lacks a running game. A Bengals offensive line that ranks 27th in run block win rate ranks 31st in rushing yards per game. It’s a game Arizona could win outright because of their strong running game and the fact that they’re playing at home. My recommendation is to back the underdog Cardinals to cover.
Fulghum: It definitely won’t be the most enjoyable game to watch, but that’s what makes betting so integral to the viewing experience. I like the UNDER in the Patriots-Saints matchup. It’s the lowest on the board, but for good reason. The Patriots’ offense is a mess and the Saints certainly won’t offer them any reprieve in this matchup. Despite a ton of injuries to his defense, I still trust Bill Belichick to make life difficult for a banged-up Derek Carr in Foxborough. I can easily see this being a 20-17 type of game, regardless of who wins.
Walder: I want to bet Ravens -4.5. The Steelers are so lucky to be 2-2. Kenny Pickett ranks 30th in QBR (29.3) and has actually been fortunate with three dropped interceptions against him (Desmond Ridder leads the league with four). Plus, one number that caught my eye this week: The Ravens are tied with the Jets for the best team defensive Open Score — the inverse of our Receiver Tracking Metrics. I might look at some alternate lines for a Ravens blowout, too.
Moody: De’Von Achane” title=”De’Von Achane posters”>De’Von Achane over 50.5 rushing yards. Kenneth Walker III rushed for 79 yards against the Giants on “Monday Night Football.” The Giants will now face Achane, who is the first rookie to have 100 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns in consecutive games since Bryce Brown in 2021. It’s important to note that the Dolphins’ offensive line ranks third in run block win rate. Achane will be too much for the Giants’ defense to handle.
Fulghum: Travis Kelce over 78.5 receiving yards. Here’s one for the Swifties out there. Kelce and the Chiefs are visiting the Vikings in Minnesota for a game that features a 52.5 total. Kirk Cousins and Patrick Mahomes should have no problem trading blows through the air of what is expected to be a shootout. In this type of game environment, I fully expect Kelce to have his most productive box score game of the season. He should see 10-plus targets and be very efficient.
Walder: Danielle Hunter 0.25 sacks (-120 at DraftKings). Here is an unreal stat: The league average sack rate for quarterbacks this season is 6.8%. Mahomes’ sack rate when he’s pressured is just 4.8%. He’s a magician at avoiding sacks, and that makes Hunter’s under a steal at this price. I make the fair line -198.
Moody: Lions -10.0. Normally, I don’t like large spreads, but I was captivated by this one. With a winning mentality instilled by head coach Dan Campbell, this Lions team dominated the Packers on the road and faces a Panthers team at Ford Field led by rookie quarterback Bryce Young, who is still adjusting to life in the NFL. So far this season, Carolina has also struggled on the road, losing by an average of 12 points per game. The Panthers are also 0-4 against the spread. And last but not least the Lions’ defense allow the fewest rushing yards per game which will likely force the Panthers to rely on Young and the passing. Since the Lions’ offense is so productive at home, they should win easily on Sunday.
Moody: Garrett Wilson over 59.5 receiving yards. Jets quarterback Zach Wilson showed flashes of brilliance on Sunday night against the Chiefs. He completed 28 of 39 passes for 245 passing yards and two passing touchdowns. Wilson was also extremely effective against the blitz and on play-action passes. It is now time for him to face a Broncos defense that allows the second-most passing yards per game in the league. It’s the perfect storm for Garrett Wilson to turn things around. Last week, the Broncos defense gave up 131 receiving yards to Bears wide receiver DJ Moore.
Fulghum: The best matchup on paper for Sunday is the prime time game with the 49ers hosting the Cowboys. I like the 49ers first half (-2.5). San Francisco, to me, is the best team in the NFL this season. They’ve been unbelievable on both sides of the ball, especially offense. I know Dallas has a great defense, but Kyle Shanahan’s team is too good right now.
The 49ers have outscored opponents 75-40 in the first half so far this season, an average margin of +8.75 points per game.
Walder: I’m eyeing an award futures bet: Will Anderson Jr. to win Defensive Rookie of the Year (+850). Jalen Carter is the favorite (+100) but whew, that is a steep price for someone who has played less than half his team’s defensive snaps thus far. Anderson Jr. plays more and plays at edge rusher, where sacks are more likely to come, and those catch the voters’ eye. I know he only has one sack thus far, but they are coming. Anderson Jr. literally ranks third among edge rushers in pass rush win rate (31%).