Week 15 NFL betting trends to know: Fade the Saints?
Moving ahead to Week 15, three of the best teams in the NFL — the New England Patriots, Seattle Seahawks and New Orleans Saints — are all coming off losses. Recently, those teams have tended to bounce back. Over the past three seasons, teams with winning percentages of at least .700 are 23-11-1 ATS after a loss, including 16-5-1 ATS as favorites of at least four points.
As for the entire Week 15 slate, here are some of the top notes and trends from each matchup.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m. ET
• Tampa Bay has won three straight games outright for the first time in a season since 2016. It went 2-0-1 ATS in those games.
• Ten of Tampa Bay’s past 11 games have gone over the total.
• This is the most points Tampa Bay has been favored by on the road since Week 1 of 2013 against the New York Jets (the Bucs lost by one as 3.5-point favorites).
• Detroit has lost six straight games and has failed to cover in seven of its past eight games.
Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) at Washington Redskins, 1 p.m. ET
• Philadelphia has won five straight meetings, all by at least five points. It’s 4-1 ATS in those games, with the only non-cover coming in Week 1 this season (Philadelphia won by five as a 10-point favorite after falling behind 17-0).
• Philadelphia has failed to cover in four straight games, while Washington has covered three straight games, all as an underdog, including two outright wins.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-4.5), 1 p.m. ET
• Chicago is 8-2 ATS in divisional games under coach Matt Nagy (2-1 ATS vs. Green Bay).
• Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is 14-6 ATS as a favorite against Chicago. Over the past five seasons, Green Bay is 13-4 ATS as a home favorite of fewer than seven points.
New England Patriots (-9.5) at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m. ET
• New England has lost back-to-back games entering this week. Tom Brady is 41-19 ATS in his career after a loss, and he is 8-4 ATS in his career when entering on a multigame losing streak.
• Over the past five seasons, New England is 9-2 ATS against teams with winning percentages of .250 or worse.
• New England is 34-46 ATS when favored by at least nine points under coach Bill Belichick, but it is 5-2 ATS this season (3-0 on the road). Since Brady returned from injury in 2009, the under is 14-2 when New England is a road favorite of at least nine points.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3), 1 p.m. ET
• The home team has won and covered in each of the past six meetings.
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• Quarterback Deshaun Watson is 12-4 ATS and 8-8 outright as an underdog.
• Coach Bill O’Brien is 5-15 ATS in his career on the road against teams with winning records.
• Tennessee is 6-1 (5-1-1 ATS) since quarterback Ryan Tannehill took over as the starter, including four straight wins and covers. All seven games have gone over the total.
Seattle Seahawks (-6) at Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m. ET
• Russell Wilson is 23-12-2 ATS in his career after a loss (30-7 outright).
• Seattle is 5-2 ATS on the road this season and 10-3 ATS in its past 13 road games dating to last season (including playoffs).
• Carolina has lost 10 straight games (1-9 ATS) when the total has been 48 or higher dating to last season.
• The over is 9-4 this season in Carolina games, the second-best over mark in the NFL.
• Carolina has lost five straight games (1-4 ATS).
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5), 1 p.m. ET
• This is the most points Kansas City has been favored by vs. Denver since 1971.
• Kansas City has won eight straight meetings, going 7-1 ATS.
• Broncos quarterback Drew Lock is 2-0 as a starter, winning as a 7.5-point underdog against Houston and as a 4.5-point underdog against the Los Angeles Chargers. In the Super Bowl era, the only quarterbacks to begin their careers 3-0 all as an underdog are Patrick Mahomes and Kyle Allen. Lock would be the first rookie in that span to do it.
• Denver has covered five of its past six games overall, all as an underdog, including three outright wins.
Miami Dolphins at New York Giants (-3.5), 1 p.m. ET
• Miami has covered seven of its last nine games and is 3-0 ATS as an underdog of six or fewer points, all in that span.
• New York has lost nine straight games, tied for the longest losing streak in franchise history (3-6 ATS in that span).
• New York is the eighth team in the past 30 seasons to be a favorite despite entering on a losing streak of at least nine games. The previous nine are 1-6 outright and ATS. The last time it happened was in Weeks 13 and 14 of 2016 when San Francisco lost twice as a favorite. The current 3.5-point spread would be the largest in the Super Bowl era in favor of a team on a losing streak of at least nine games.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders (-6.5), 4:05 p.m. ET
• Jacksonville has lost five straight games, all by at least 17 points (0-5 ATS). It was never more than a 4.5-point underdog in any of those games.
• Oakland has lost three straight games, all by at least 21 points, and it has failed to cover in four straight games.
Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals, 4:05 p.m. ET
• This is the seventh straight game Cleveland has been favored in, its longest streak since 1994. It was a road favorite twice in that stretch and lost both games outright.
• Arizona is 4-0 ATS this season as an underdog against teams that entered with losing records, including going 3-1 outright. Overall, the over is 4-1 this season when Arizona faces a team with a losing record.
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05 p.m. ET
• Since acquiring quarterback Kirk Cousins, Minnesota is 1-6-1 outright and 1-7 ATS when the spread is between +3 and -3.
• Since moving to Los Angeles in 2017, the Chargers are 7-14-1 ATS at home.
• Los Angeles is 6-1-2 ATS as an underdog of three points or fewer under Anthony Lynn.
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-11), 4:25 p.m. ET
• Over the past three seasons, Atlanta is 8-20 ATS in non-division games (2-6 ATS this season).
• San Francisco has not been more than a 10-point favorite since 2014. Jimmy Garoppolo is 1-5-1 ATS with San Francisco as a favorite of at least six points and 11-2-1 ATS in all other games.
• This is the second time this season Atlanta has been a double-digit underdog. It won the other game outright (+13.5 at New Orleans).
Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) at Dallas Cowboys, 4:25 p.m. ET
• Los Angeles is 5-2 outright and ATS since acquiring cornerback Jalen Ramsey. Six of the seven games went under. Overall, seven of Los Angeles’ past eight games went under.
• Los Angeles is 9-4 ATS this season, the best record in the NFL.
• Dallas is 0-6 this season against teams that currently have records over .500 (1-5 ATS).
• Rams coach Sean McVay is 2-0 ATS and outright against Dallas, including the playoffs, with both games going over the total.
Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2), 8:20 p.m. ET
• Since the NFL expanded to 32 teams in 2002, Buffalo’s 3-17 record in prime-time games is the worst in the NFL over that span (lost past five games). It’s 7-12-1 ATS in those games, including 0-2 under coach Sean McDermott.
• Pittsburgh is 8-2 in its past 10 games following an 0-3 start. It is 7-2-2 ATS since quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s injury, including 3-0 outright and ATS with Devlin Hodges.
• Pittsburgh is 10-1 ATS and outright in the previous 11 meetings.
• The current over/under of 36.5 is the lowest in any game this season. The lowest total entering this week is 37. Both teams have been 10-3 to the under this season, tied for the best under records in the NFL.
Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints (-9), Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
• Colts coach Frank Reich is 9-1 ATS and 8-2 outright in the regular season against teams with winning records, but the only ATS loss came in Week 13 against Tennessee. He is 6-0 ATS against teams that entered at least two games over .500.
• Indianapolis is 1-4-1 ATS this season when T.Y. Hilton does not play (6-1-1 ATS with Hilton).
• Over the past five seasons, New Orleans is 1-5 ATS on Monday Night Football. Five of the six games went over the total.
• In the past 10 seasons, New Orleans is 15-4-1 ATS in prime-time games at home.