Week 11 NFL betting trends to know: Back Deshaun Watson as a ‘dog?
Moving forward to Week 11, six divisional games highlight the slate. This season, taking the road teams in divisional games has been very profitable. Even including Pittsburgh failing to cover on Thursday, road teams are 27-16-1 ATS in divisional games (63%). For a larger sample size, under the current divisional format (since 2002), road teams cover just under 53% of the time.
Here are the other Week 11 NFL betting trends to know:
Dallas Cowboys (NL) at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m. ET
• Detroit has failed to cover four straight games (had covered each of previous four games).
• Over the past two seasons, Dallas is 2-3 outright as a road favorite.
• Dallas is one of two teams to be favored in every game this season (New England).
New Orleans Saints (-5.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m. ET
• New Orleans is 9-3 ATS on the road over the past two seasons, the best mark in the NFL.
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• Since 2016, New Orleans is 7-1 ATS on the road after a loss.
• Tampa Bay has failed to cover five straight games.
• Seven straight Tampa Bay games have gone over the total.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-4.5), 1 p.m. ET
• Atlanta is 5-16 ATS on the road over the past three seasons, including 2-8 ATS as a road underdog.
• Atlanta is 2-8 ATS in its past 10 games following a win.
• Over the past two seasons, Atlanta is 4-3 ATS in divisional games and 4-14 ATS in all other games.
• Atlanta has covered back-to-back games after starting 1-6 ATS.
• Kyle Allen is 6-2 ATS as a starter including 3-0 ATS as a favorite. All three times Allen has been a favorite, the game finished at least seven points over the total.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-3), 1 p.m. ET
• Over the past four seasons, Jacksonville is 7-0-1 ATS against Indianapolis and the Colts have been shut out in two of the past four meetings.
• Jacksonville is 7-1-1 ATS after a bye since 2011 (1-0-1 under Doug Marrone).
• Since 2017 (including the playoffs), Nick Foles is 7-2 ATS and 6-3 SU as an underdog. However, he is 0-1 with Jacksonville.
• Indianapolis has won and covered in five straight games against divisional opponents, including last year’s wild-card win. Overall, Frank Reich is 6-2-1 ATS against AFC South opponents.
• If Brian Hoyer starts, this will be the 12th time in his career he is a favorite. The under is 10-1 in those games, including 10-0 since the start of 2014. He has lost 10 straight starts (4-6 ATS), including last week as an 11-point favorite against Miami.
Denver Broncos at Minnesota Vikings (-10), 1 p.m. ET
• Denver has covered four of its past five games.
• The under is 14-3 in Denver’s past 17 games, including 19-5-1 since the start of last season.
• Quarterbacks making their first career start this season are 7-2 ATS, including Brandon Allen‘s win two weeks ago. This week, he is expected to make his second career start. Quarterbacks making their second career start are 5-1 ATS this season.
• This is the first time Denver has been a double-digit underdog since the 2011 divisional playoffs when Tim Tebow and the Broncos were 13.5-point underdogs in New England.
• Minnesota is 32-13-1 ATS at home under Mike Zimmer, the best mark by any coach in the Super Bowl era, minimum 25 games.
• Mike Zimmer is 18-9-1 ATS against teams that entered the game with a losing record, including 4-2 with Kirk Cousins. The under is 17-10-1 in those games, including 10-0 in the games Minnesota did not cover.
New York Jets at Washington Redskins (-2.5), 1 p.m. ET
• New York is 2-1 this season against NFC East opponents (all as an underdog) including 2-0 in Sam Darnold starts. The Jets are 0-6 against AFC opponents.
• Washington has lost eight straight home games (2-6 ATS in span).
• Six straight Washington games have gone under the total.
• Since 2014, favorites that have won one or zero games in Week 8 or later are 1-9 ATS and 2-8 SU, with six straight outright losses.
Buffalo Bills (-6.5) at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m. ET
• Buffalo is 3-0-1 ATS on the road this season, with all four games going under the total. Ten of Buffalo’s past 11 road games have gone under.
• The under is 7-2 in Buffalo games this season, though one of the two losses came in Week 7 against Miami when the game finished with 52 points, 9.5 points over the total.
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• Miami has covered five straight games, all as an underdog, including back-to-back outright wins. It’s the longest active cover streak in the league.
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-4), 1 p.m. ET
• Deshaun Watson is 11-3 ATS in his career as an underdog.
• Bill O’Brien is 4-1 ATS in his career off a bye week. The only non-cover came last season when Houston won by two as a three-point favorite.
• Lamar Jackson is 2-7 ATS at home in his career including playoffs. He is 0-5 ATS as a single-digit home favorite.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-10), 4:05 p.m. ET
• Arizona is 7-3 ATS this season, tied with Green Bay for the best mark in the league. Arizona has covered five of its past six games.
• San Francisco is the ninth team since 2013 to start 6-0 or better. The previous eight teams were 3-5 ATS after their first loss, though all eight games went over the total.
• Since 2011, teams playing on Sunday coming off a Monday night loss are 53-81-2 ATS, including 20-36 ATS since 2016.
New England Patriots (-3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles, 4:25 p.m. ET
• Tom Brady is 40-18 ATS in his career following a loss.
• New England has covered four of its past five games after a bye week.
• Doug Pederson is 17-11 ATS and 15-13 SU as an underdog in his career including playoffs, including going 7-2 ATS and SU as a home underdog.
Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders (-11), 4:25 p.m. ET
• Cincinnati is 9-4 ATS on the road over the past two seasons (3-2 ATS this season).
• Oakland is 5-1 ATS in its past six games. Cincinnati is 1-5 ATS in its past six games.
• This is the second time in the past 15 seasons that Oakland has been a double-digit favorite. The other came in 2017 when it was a 14-point favorite over the New York Jets. a game Oakland won by 25 points.
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5), 8:20 p.m. ET
• The under is 11-3 in Chicago’s past 14 games.
• Matt Nagy is 5-1 ATS in prime-time games.
• Sean McVay is 12-7-1 ATS as a favorite of at least six points.
• The current total of 40.5 is tied for the lowest in Sean McVay’s career. The over is 4-0 in McVay games when the total is below 43 (all in 2017).
Kansas City Chiefs (-4) vs. Los Angeles Chargers, Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Mexico City)
• Kansas City has covered four of the past five meetings and eight of the past 11.
• Patrick Mahomes is only 3-5 outright in prime-time games, though he is 4-3-1 ATS.
• Philip Rivers is 15-5-1 ATS (12-9 SU) in prime-time games as an underdog.