Week 1 college football betting tips: Can Florida State cover vs. LSU?
More Teams. More Games.
Heather Dinich dives into some of the under-the-radar teams that could make a splash in the College Football Playoff this season. (1:36)
Week 1 of the 2023 college football season is finally here, featuring five consecutive days of action from across the nation and plenty of intriguing nonconference matchups. The slate begins on Thursday with a marquee matchup between No. 14 Utah and Florida on ESPN.
On Saturday, Colorado begins a new era under coach Deion Sanders as nearly 21-point underdogs to TCU. Meanwhile, in the Saturday night prime-time game, Drake Maye and North Carolina take on Spencer Rattler and South Carolina. Sunday’s marquee matchup features a rematch of last season’s Week 1 thriller as LSU battles the Florida State.
Our experts have got you covered in this week’s betting roundtable.
All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Florida at No. 14 Utah
Thursday 7 p.m. ET on ESPN, Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, Utah
Line: Utah (-6.5)
Money line: Utah (-267), Florida (+215)
Total: 44.5 points
FPI prediction:
Utah: 73.7% chance to win.
Projected margin of victory: +10.2 points
Betting trends
Utah is 8-2 ATS in last 10 as home favorite
Florida is 10-4-1 ATS in last 15 as an underdog
Florida is 4-1 ATS in last 5 as road underdog
Best bet: Under 45.5 points. One of two things can happen here: Either Cameron Rising doesn’t play or he plays and is nowhere near 100 percent. Either situation will be a big blow for a Utah offense that ranked in the top 15 in scoring last season. On the plus side, the Utes boast the best defense in the Pac-12 with a defensive line as loaded as any of the previous iterations Kyle Whittingham has trotted out — and that’s saying something. Florida’s offense will be a work in progress with former Wisconsin signal-caller Graham Mertz under center. This game feels like a total grind to me. — Joe Fortenbaugh
Best bet: Utah (-6.5). Even with Rising’s availability in question (and to Joe’s point level of readiness) I still like the Utes -6.5. Kyle Whittingham and Utah are perennially overlooked and have won the Pac-12 in back-to-back years. This game is at home, a huge opportunity on a national stage with a big-time chip on their shoulder. I’m not convinced Graham Mertz will be the answer to a Florida offense in flux. I can see this game being a slog, but I’m still on the home team winning by a TD. — Dalen Cuff
Colorado at No. 17 TCU
Saturday 12 p.m. ET, Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas
Line: TCU (-20.5)
Money line: TCU (-1200), Colorado (+750)
Total: 57.5 points
FPI prediction:
TCU: 91.8% chance to win.
Projected margin of victory: +23.6 points
Betting trends
Colorado 0-6 ATS on the road in 2022.
TCU was 7-2-1 ATS as a favorite in 2022.
Best bet: TCU (-20.5) Find me four wins on Colorado’s schedule. Go ahead, I’ll wait. You can give the Buffaloes a victory over Stanford and Colorado State, but where else do you feel confident, especially for a program that saw 35-plus players exit after the spring game this year. That type of roster turnover creates difficulties in building chemistry and culture. I like coach Deion Sanders in the long term, but in the short term, this is a fade. — Fortenbaugh
No. 21 North Carolina at South Carolina
Saturday 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC” title=”ABC posters”>ABC, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
Line: North Carolina (-2.5)
Money line: North Carolina (-140), South Carolina (+118)
Total: 64.5 points
FPI prediction:
North Carolina: 57.4% chance to win.
Projected margin of victory: +3.0 points
Betting trends
South Carolina is 11-4 ATS in last 15 season openers.
North Carolina is 2-7-1 ATS in last 10 as a favorite.
North Carolina was 7-2 to the over last season in games with a total of 60 or more.
The under has hit in four of the past five meetings.
Best bets: North Carolina (-2.5); Over 64.5 points. South Carolina finished hot last year and Rattler was a huge reason for that, but let us not forget the Gamecocks lost three top-tier starters on defense in Cam Smith, Zacch Pickens and Darius Rush. Drake Maye and the Tar Heels did lose four straight games to close out the season last year, but the more talented roster is in Chapel Hill — especially with Myles Murphy, Cedric Gray and Amari Gainer on defense. I do think it will be close but give me the Tar Heels to cover in this one. And because it’s Week 1, always take the over. — Matt Miller
Best bet: Over 64.5 points. Maye will become a household name this year before hearing his name called within the top three picks of the 2024 NFL draft next April. He is the headliner. While he lost his top two receivers, the Tar Heels offense will be still be electric. The issue is their defense. North Carolina will have a lot of players back but from a defense that was bottom 30 in nation in points allowed. Rattler and South Carolina finished last season strong and have high hopes. This is a huge game for both teams but with both teams dealing with changes on defense, I see the over in play. — Cuff
No. 5 LSU at No. 8 Florida State
Sunday 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC” title=”ABC posters”>ABC, Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida
Line: LSU (-2.5)
Money line: LSU (-140), Florida State (+118)
Total: 56.0 points
FPI prediction:
LSU: 64.9% chance to win.
Projected margin of victory: +6.1 points
Betting trends
Florida State is 3-7 ATS in last 10 AP top-10 matchups.
Florida State is 1-4 ATS in last five season openers.
LSU head coach Brian Kelly is 0-5 ATS in last five games favored by three or fewer.
Best bet: LSU (-2.5). LSU lost this matchup by one point last year. One point. And that came in a game which Florida State held the ball for an additional eight minutes in time of possession, converted 65% of its third-down opportunities and finished with a plus-1 turnover differential. Do we see this happening again this season? My thought process is simple: Which of these two programs took a bigger leap this offseason? FSU was a 10-win team last year and will be solid in 2023. But LSU is entering Year 2 of the Brian Kelly era and I think the Tigers are poised for a much bigger jump. Anything short of -3 and I’m on the Tigers. — Fortenbaugh
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Best bet: Florida State (+2.5) Joe is right. This game was exceptionally close last year, and we should expect much of the same in the marquee Sunday night matchup. The FSU offensive line is incredibly talented and experienced, which will come in handy against an LSU defensive line that is missing star tackle Maason Smith due to a suspension. Yes, the Tigers do have standout sophomore pass-rusher Harold Perkins, but he alone likely doesn’t close the gap defensively against a Seminole offense that will run downhill early and often with running back Trey Benson. This should be the Jordan Travis show — if the senior quarterback has time to find targets Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson in the passing game, the Seminoles should take care of business and leave with the win. I’m comfortable enough with Florida State to say they cover and hit the over. — Miller
Best bet: Florida State ML (+118) This should be a great and entertaining game. Travis and Jayden Daniels are being talked about in the Heisman Trophy race. This is a massive stage on Sunday night but I think FSU has more support on both sides of the ball for its Heisman candidate. The Noles can win the battle up front and control the line of scrimmage, which will be huge in this game. They did pull out that win in a de facto road game in Caesars Superdome last year. This year’s game being in Orlando is definitely helpful. Give me the Noles ML. — Cuff