Trick or trend: Breaking down the defenseman rankings
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Values will ebb and flow throughout the season. We know that much. But when does the ebbing and flowing start to trail off? When can we start expecting what we know now, to be true later?
This is a look at the fantasy rankings for defense and trying to identify when the tides start to slow down.
In games played through Tuesday’s Frozen Frenzy, there were 3,729 individual box scores already on the books. By way of comparison, let’s take a similar amount of data from last season. If we take all the games from the start of last season through to Oct. 24, 2022, we get 3,695 individual box scores. That’s close enough for what we want to look at.
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Looking at a snapshot of the top 25 defenders last season through Oct. 24, 2022, and comparing it to the final results, we can see that 11 of the top 25 ended up staying there through the end of the season. So 14 of the top 25 fantasy defense at this time last year ended up dropping out of the top 25 before the end of the season. When it comes to the top 10, only Rasmus Dahlin was in the top 10 by Oct. 24, 2022, and stayed there by the end of the season. And only Dahlin, Darnell Nurse and Alec Martinez were in the top 10 at this time last year and stayed in the top 25 by the end of the season.
Some of the dropouts from the early top 25 included injury-impacted seasons, like those of John Carlson and Zach Werenski. But a lot of the list is just made up of players that started hot; Ivan Provorov, Bowen Byram, Dmitry Orlov, Brayden McNabb, Tony DeAngelo, Carlson, Matt Roy, Werenski, Justin Holl, Jeff Petry, David Savard, Noah Dobson, Shayne Gostisbehere and Neal Pionk were all trending in the top 25 at this time last season, but faded.
So, this may be a bit early to decide how the fantasy D ranks are shaping up.
But when does the picture start to crystalize?
Let’s look at last season through the end of November with the same exercise.
Of the top 25 defenders through Nov. 30, 2022, a much more informative 16 of them stayed there through the end of the season. Furthermore, six of the top 10 stayed in the top 10 and nine of the top 10 stayed in the top 25.
That means that, about a month from now, we should have a good picture of the defense rankings. At the very least, we can say that a majority of them will stick around and keep contributing.
By the end of November last season, Moritz Seider, Justin Faulk, Jacob Trouba, Nurse, Martinez, Mikhail Sergachev, Roman Josi, Josh Morrissey, Dahlin, Brandon Montour, Dougie Hamilton, Rasmus Andersson, Alex Pietrangelo, Adam Fox, Cale Makar and Erik Karlsson were in the top 25 for fantasy points among defense; and they would all finish the season with that same status. Among them, Seider, Faulk, Josi, Morrissey, Montour, Hamilton and Rasmus Andersson were not among the top 25 on Oct. 24, 2022.
If we are looking at all this with an eye to identifying defenders likely to be in the top 25 at the end of the season, what factors should we be tracking?
This is actually pretty straightforward when it comes to the blue line. We want power-play time and blocked shots.
Of last season’s top 25 for fantasy points from the blue line, 21 of the players were either in the top 25 for power-play time or in the top 25 for blocked shots. Only four D managed to be in the top 25 for fantasy points and not make either of those lists: Charlie McAvoy, Justin Faulk, Devon Toews and Victor Hedman.
So, how is the top 25 shaping up at this stage?
Makar, Seider, Jaccob Slavin, Gostisbehere, Evan Bouchard, Dobson, Shea Theodore, Trouba, Dahlin, Hedman, Jake Sanderson, Alexandre Carrier, Provorov, Jakob Chychrun, McNabb, Mike Matheson, Hamilton, Jake Walman, MacKenzie Weegar, Carlson, Brady Skjei, Morrissey, Dylan DeMelo, Sergachev and Jake Middleton make up the early frontrunners for fantasy scoring from the blue line.
We know which factors we are looking at as the biggest influencers (power-play time and blocked shots), so let’s see if we can’t identify which players will comprise the top 25 by the end of the season.
The biggest risks to drop off this list of top 25 are the players that are not leading in power-play time or blocked shots. Not appearing in either top 25 for power-play time or blocked shots are Chychrun, Hamilton, Skjei, DeMelo, Slavin, and Jake Middleton. Of particular interest here are Chychrun and Hamilton, as both of them appear to be losing out on power-play time in a big way. Sanderson has taken over on the point for the Ottawa Senators when they are on the advantage, while the New Jersey Devils are giving Luke Hughes the majority of power-play minutes on the first unit with his brother Jack.
Skjei and Slavin are on a deep Carolina Hurricanes blue line with a lot of cooks all trying to claim their spot in the kitchen, so it wouldn’t be a shock to see them fade, too. Middleton is another candidate to fade. While he may still sit a respectable 29th in the league for blocked shots, Jared Spurgeon will suck up some of that air when he returns.
DeMelo’s role, although important on the ice, hasn’t changed since last season, so this fantasy relevance is likely just a burst of value and won’t last.
Of the remaining 19, we have enough of a book to at least expect Sergachev, Dahlin, Makar, Seider, Trouba, Carlson, Morrissey and Hedman to stay competitive among the top 25. But are the others for real?
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Ivan Provorov, D, Columbus Blue Jackets: He was among our hot starters last season that faded. This is new scenery and new opportunity though, so don’t write him off yet. That said, his power-play-point pace (three already) will drop if Werenski stays healthy.
Jake Walman, D, Detroit Red Wings: This is continuing a trend that started midway through last season when Walman and Seider were paired up. Don’t be shocked if Walman hangs around or just misses the top 25 by season’s end. The secondary power-play time is a nice little bonus thanks to the Red Wings opting for two blue-liners on the top unit.
Shea Theodore, D, Vegas Golden Knights: Will there be as much to go around when Alex Pietrangelo is back? The Knights top defender has missed all but the first two games of the season and Theodore has thrived in his absence. There is some risk here.
Shayne Gostisbehere, D, Detroit Red Wings: This might be for real, but mute the production by a few factors. Three goals and six power-play points in seven games is not a sustainable pace. But the opportunity Gostisbehere has alongside Seider on the first unit is for real and is something he can hold onto as a specialist on the advantage.
Jake Sanderson, D, Ottawa Senators: Is he leapfrogging both Thomas Chabot and Chychrun for the prime role? So far, absolutely. If you remove the first two games from the equation to account for Sanderson’s time to stake his claim, the power-play time per game looks like this: Sanderson, 4:17; Chabot, 2:46; and Chychrun, 2:30.
Alexandre Carrier, D, Nashville Predators: Derailed by two injuries last season, we could be witnessing a breakout in the blocked shots department by Carrier this season. With his ice time up over 20 minutes per game, he currently sits as the NHL leader in blocked shots (but not blocked shots per game, just for the record). Still, his rate of blocks per 60 minutes only trails Jacob Trouba and T.J. Brodie among defenders that average at least 20 minutes of ice time.
Evan Bouchard, D, Edmonton Oilers: We knew this breakout was coming following last year’s playoffs and it looks more than sustainable with Bouchard boasting five power-play points through six games and sitting among the top five defenders in power-play ice time per game.
Brayden McNabb, D, Vegas Golden Knights: McNabb usually flirts with the top 25 by virtue of his hits and blocked shots. So he may not end up in the top 25 at the end of the season, but he should be close.
MacKenzie Weegar, D, Calgary Flames: A rough debut season as a Flame was overshadowed by a rougher debut season from his trade fellow, Jonathan Huberdeau. But Weegar had a big 2021-22 for fantasy and still has that potential to build points through his shot blocking and shooting.
Mike Matheson, D, Montreal Canadiens: Matheson is among three D that are both top 25 for power-play time and top for blocked shots this season. Seider and Carlson are pretty good company.
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Noah Dobson, D, New York Islanders: Dobson always had the power play to his advantage in recent seasons, it’s just that the Islanders didn’t convert enough for him to really push up the rankings. But wait, there’s more! Could we be seeing a new element to Dobson’s game this season? He only blocked 104 shots all of last season. Through five games this season, he’s blocked 19. At that rate, he’ll surpass last season’s total by mid-December. He won’t maintain that pace, as it’s inflated by a small sample, but it’s a very encouraging start considering it wasn’t a part of his game before.
So of the top 25 fantasy D at this snapshot in time, here’s the final verdict on whether I think they can stay in the top 25 by the end of the season:
In: Makar, Seider, Gostisbehere, Bouchard, Dobson, Trouba, Dahlin, Hedman, Sanderson, Carrier, Matheson, Carlson, Morrissey and Sergachev.
Out: Slavin, Theodore, Provorov, Chychrun, McNabb, Hamilton, Walman, Weegar, Skjei, DeMelo, and Jake Middleton.
I didn’t get too deep into who is missing and I expect to make their way up the rankings in the short-term, but here’s a short list and you won’t find any surprises: Roman Josi, Erik Karlsson, Adam Fox, Pietrangelo, Charlie McAvoy, Miro Heiskanen, Quinn Hughes and Zach Werenski.
We will be sure to revisit this exercise at the end of November to see how things are shaping up.