Super Bowl LVIII betting roundtable: Which rushing and receiving props should you bet on?
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Tyler Fulghum explains how he’s handling prop bet lines for George Kittle and Deebo Samuel in the Super Bowl. (0:41)
What are the best rushing and receiving prop bets to make before you watch the Kansas City Chiefs take on the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII?
NFL betting experts Eric Moody, Liz Loza, Daniel Dopp, Tyler Fulghum, Anita Marks and Aaron Schatz explain the ones they like most, and Mackenzie Kraemer provides his top rushing and receiving betting nuggets.
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Schatz: Running from the backfield hasn’t been as big a part of Deebo Samuel‘s game this year. With Christian McCaffrey around, there’s less reason to give Samuel carries. Including the playoffs, Samuel only topped 12 rushing yards in five games this season. I know that run defense is the Chiefs’ weakness, but I expect McCaffrey to attack that more than Samuel. Give me Deebo Samuel UNDER 14.5 rushing yards.
Dopp: Brock Purdy OVER 12.5 rushing yards. Shout out to Liz Loza, because she wrote about this line in Props that Pop this week and I absolutely love it. Purdy isn’t known has a big rusher, but if you saw him last week against the Detroit Lions, you know he can use his legs. In fact, with the 49ers playing from behind in each of the past two games, Moody had 48 rushing yards against the Lions and 14 rushing yards against the Packers. Meanwhile, the Chiefs haven’t been able to stop QBs from running the ball this postseason. They’ve given up 72 rushing yards to Josh Allen, 54 yards to Lamar Jackson and 25 yards to Tua Tagovailoa. That last one is what really got me here. We know Lamar and Josh Allen can run, but since the Chiefs let a statue like Tua run for 25 yards, I can definitely see Purdy being able to squeeze out 13 or more rushing yards.
Moody: Isiah Pacheco OVER 16.5 rushing attempts. He has dominated to close out the season. In fact, Pacheco has surpassed 16.5 attempts in three of his past five games. The Chiefs ran 47 plays in their divisional round game against the Bills, and Pacheco had 15 rushing attempts. Kansas City’s offensive line has also been phenomenal this postseason, and the same can be said of Pacheco. Considering how Aaron Jones (108), David Montgomery (93), and Jahmyr Gibbs (45) performed against the 49ers’ defense during the playoffs, Pacheco is a lock to be provided ample rushing attempts by Andy Reid in the Super Bowl.
Loza: Pacheco OVER 66.5 rushing yards. Pacheco’s running style is more “extra” than “economical,” but that hasn’t stopped Andy Reid from feeding him the ball, particularly since the Chiefs’ bye (Week 10). Pacheco has answered the call, averaging 83 rushing yards per game over his past eight contests. He has additionally cleared the above number in each of his postseason outings. Meanwhile, the 49ers’ run defense has struggled down the stretch, allowing Jones and Montgomery to clear the above line in back-to-back games.
Fulghum: Clyde Edwards-Helaire UNDER 6.5 rushing yards (-125). The 2020 first-round draft pick has been pretty ineffective when used in the run game this year. Isiah Pacheco has been vastly superior and should take most of the opportunities on the ground. Now Edwards-Helaire might see his overall snap participation drop with Jerick McKinnon designated to return from IR, giving him a chance to take opportunities in the KC backfield. McKinnon has long been a favorite of Andy Reid’s in big games.
Schatz: I’m expecting a big game from George Kittle despite the toe injury that has kept him out of some pre-Super Bowl practices. The Chiefs’ linebackers and safeties simply aren’t as strong in coverage as their cornerbacks, and Kittle is an important part of the 49ers’ offense. Kittle didn’t beat his prop total in the NFC Championship Game, but he has gone over 50 yards in nine of his past 12 games. I’ll take George Kittle OVER 47.5 receiving yards.
Loza: Kittle OVER 3.5 receptions. Like Schatz, I’m buying the dip on Kittle. The last time these two teams met (Week 7 of 2022), Kittle converted 6 of 9 looks for 98 yards and a score. He has also averaged over four catches per game during the regular season. With L’Jarius Sneed likely to shadow Brandon Aiyuk and Chris Jones (as well as George Karlaftis) breathing down Purdy’s neck, Kittle figures to emerge as a safety value for No. 13 over the middle.
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Moody: Rashee Rice UNDER 66.5 receiving yards. He has seen a significant increase in targets since Week 10. Rice has nine or more targets in seven of the past nine games. He’s heavily reliant on yards after the catch, finishing third in the league this season. When it comes to yards after the catch allowed per reception, the 49ers rank among the top 10 in the league. Rice has gone under this line in three of his past five games. In 13 of 19 games this season, he has gone under 66.5 receiving yards.
Dopp: Travis Kelce OVER 6.5 receptions. Nobody knows Mahomes better than Kelce and we’ve seen that old chemistry flourish over the past couple of weeks. In the AFC Championship Game against Baltimore, Kelce had 11 catches on 11 targets. It was clear the Ravens had no answer for him. Against the Bills, he caught five for 75 and two TDs. I know that’s not over the receiving mark we were looking for, but again, big-time involvement. And in the wild-card round, he had seven for 71 yards against the Dolphins. This is as much of a heart play as it is a head play — I believe this is when we see the best out of both Mahomes and Kelce. Two guys who have done it better than anyone else over the past 10 years, in a season where everyone doubted them from the jump. By the way … Sam LaPorta just torched these 49ers for nine catches on 13 targets and 97 yards. If LaPorta and Goff can make it happen, I’m all in on Mahomes finding Kelce for over 6.5 receptions.
Fulghum: Samuel OVER 56.5 receiving yards (-120). It has been abundantly clear this postseason that when Kyle Shanahan has all of his offensive talent available for use, he is prioritizing Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel. Samuel looked in line for a massive game against Green Bay before getting hurt, then followed that up with eight catches for 89 yards on nine targets in the NFC Championship Game win over Detroit. He has had a full two weeks now to heal that shoulder even further. I expect Samuel to be a primary read often in this matchup with KC.
Marks: Noah Gray OVER 1.5 total receptions and OVER 12.5 total receiving yards. Gray dropped just one pass all season, and he is a player Mahomes can trust. He has gone over this number 12 times this season. KC has been using two-TE sets more often in the playoffs, and Gray will get some looks.
Christian McCaffrey has gone over his rushing yards prop in nine of his last 10 games and 13 of 18 games this season. His rushing yards prop is 90.5, the highest number McCaffrey has had all season.
Brandon Aiyuk‘s receiving yards prop of 62.5 is his lowest since Week 6. It’s the fifth-highest receiving yards prop against the 49ers this season. His prop was a season-high 76.5 yards last week (had 68 yards). He has gone under his receptions and receiving yards props in both playoff games.
Travis Kelce has gone under his receptions prop in 10 of his last 12 games. However, he has gone over in two of three playoff games. His prop is back to 6.5 after it was 5.5 in the previous five games.
Isiah Pacheco has gone over his rushing prop in four straight games and seven of his last nine. His prop of 67.5 yards is the second-highest prop against the Chiefs this season (Aaron Jones: 69.5 in Divisional Round, went over).
Rashee Rice has gone over his receptions prop in 13 of 19 games, the highest percentage in the NFL (no prop posted in Week 1). However, he has gone under his prop in three of his last five games. 6.5 receptions ties his highest prop this season.