Starting Five: Should Bradley Beal fantasy owners be worried?
Don’t worry; I have the answers for you.
Each Monday this season, I’ll tip the week off by positing and seeking answers to five key questions, thus the “Starting Five.”
This week’s contributors are ESPN Fantasy analyst John Cregan, ESPN NBA insider Bradford Doolittle and yours truly.
Cregan: By not drafting him. I’m a Wizards fan, but I can’t recommend Beal until he proves he can flourish in a 72- to 80-game campaign. His boffo playoff performance the past two years hasn’t translated into a permanent upward trend. That being said, Beal could make for an interesting roll of the dice in a buy-low situation. Beal has all the upside in the world. More importantly, he is in a contract year. That tends to keep you out on the court with a bit more frequency.
Doolittle: I’m pretty concerned. It’s a bad sign when a guy has trouble with the same part of his body over and over. He wasn’t exactly tearing it up even before this happened. The Wizards don’t have the depth chart to withstand Beal’s absence and things could get ugly there. Beal is playing for a new contract, so if this is just a temporary blip, he could be poised to put up big numbers after he returns. However, there are already reports that his minutes will be restricted. There are enough red flags here that I’m certainly fielding trade offers if he’s on my fantasy team.
Carpenter: Based on the issues he had in previous seasons, I entered this campaign generally concerned about his health. Now I am very concerned. You have to hope that since he is just 22 years old, his body will eventually overcome these issues — a la Stephen Curry and his ankles — but repeated issues with the durability of a bone isn’t something he can just shake off and tough out. Obviously, his value is rock bottom right now, which makes him a desperation trade target if you are low in the rankings and have a talent-starved team. But if you own Beal, I would trade him off in a month or whenever he seems to hit his stride — before he inevitably goes down again.
Cregan: Only in the deepest of leagues. You have to assume Irving will be on a minutes limit for the immediate future. And while there’s no reason to believe Irving can’t manufacture medium-league production in 20-25 minutes, his first game or two back could be more cameo than leading role.
Doolittle: Only if your roster is depleted and you really need a warm body for your lineup. Irving hasn’t played in a game of any kind in over six months. I’d wait two or three of games at least for a couple of reasons. First, we don’t know that he’ll play full starter’s minutes at the outset. The Cavs have been exceedingly (and understandably) cautious with him, and it’s possible those kid gloves could still be on when it comes to doling out his minutes. Efficiency is the other concern. A lot of players are coming off a long absence struggle with their shot as they re-acclimate to the speed of game play. Personally, I’d want to get some eyeballs on Irving just to make sure everything is copacetic before I yank him out of an IR slot. You’ve been patient this long, so what’s a couple of more games?
Carpenter: Considering that the Cavs’ sole goal this season is to win a title, I expect them to baby Irving as much as possible. Presumably, that means he should see limited minutes once he is cleared to play. My guess is that he will be capped at 20-25 minutes for the first few weeks, and we should expect a shoddy field goal percentage as he shakes off the rust from not playing for six-plus months. I’ll pop him right into head-to-head lineups. In roto games, I may wait to use him until he plays 30 minutes per game if my team is in good shape. If my team has been scuffling, I would probably use him right away and hope for the best.
Cregan: I believe in Santa Claus more than the fabled “rookie wall.” The notion that rookies smack into some mythical mojo-killing barrier, crumple, and disappear until Year 2 simply isn’t true. I believe more in “rookie divots.” Small-to-medium sized slumps that will occur less frequently as said rookie learns to adjust to adjustments made by opposing teams. Porzingis has logged a lot of international minutes, but I wouldn’t be concerned. And if I didn’t roster him, I’d be thinking buy low.
Doolittle: Concepts like the “rookie wall” almost never hold up to scrutiny. Every player is different. That’s not to say that Porzingis isn’t struggling or dragging his tail a bit right now. The Knicks have been on their long annual western slog and those trips are tough no matter how long you’ve been in the league. If you have another option to Porzingis, then maybe it’s time to give him a rest, and the Knicks may need to ease up on him for a couple of games. But the guy we’ve seen the last couple of games isn’t the guy we’re going to see for the rest of the season. He’s been too good this season and he’s done it against all kinds of opponents. I do wonder if New York needs to start using him more as a center in order to save him some wear-and-tear on the defensive end. It sounds counter intuitive because opposing centers can beat on him, but it’s a lot to ask for a player of his body type and age to chase around forwards for 82 games. But in any event, offensive slumps happen. He’s contributed in so many different areas that it’s almost impossible for him to not help you in at least a couple of categories even on his off nights.
Carpenter: He is a rookie, so swoons like this are inevitable. I’m far more concerned with the physical durability of a 20-year-old who is 7-foot-3 and 240 pounds playing 82 games for the first time. Nonetheless, December is the best time to invest in slumping players who should excel from February through the end of the season — and that’s exactly what I expect Porzingis to do. Trade for him now, while his value is low or his owner may be concerned, and he will pay off in scoring, boards, blocks, 3s and percentages when you need it most in the stretch run of the fantasy hoops season.
Cregan: Because so much of Wroten’s past production has been dictated by explosiveness and athleticism, he’s hard to recommend. If you have room at the end of your bench, he might be worth a stash. But even at full health, we’re talking about one of the least efficient high-minute players in the NBA. I’d peg his eventual ceiling around last season’s averages (16.9 points, 5.2 assists, 1.2 3-pointers, 1.6 steals, 14.9 PER).
Doolittle: I don’t see Wroten as being anything more than a wild-scoring sixth man-type who has no dimmer switch. That is to say, he’s either on or he’s off. The Sixers seem to have realized that their lack of point guard play has been undermining the development of their young bigs, which is by far the most important on-court facet of their season. Now that Kendall Marshall is back to get teammates the ball in the right positions, I see Wroten as nothing more than an ancillary, instant offense guy with questionable efficiency.
Carpenter: Let’s assume that in four-to-six weeks he manages to get cleared for full game action and back-to-backs. The main concerns to his fantasy value are two-fold. First, the Sixers have a slew of guards, so he has competition for minutes. Second, it’s tough to swallow the shoddy shooting we saw from him last season (40.3 FG%/14.5 FGA and 66.7 FT%/6.0 FTA), at least in roto leagues. I think his ceiling during the stretch run probably won’t be as high as last season, and I’m not going to add him in standard leagues until his role begins to stabilize.
Cregan: Headed into draft season, I was high (in muted tones) on Bogdanovic. Given minutes, he can deliver double-digit scoring, decent rebounding, plus two 3s and a steal. Until Hollis-Jefferson returns, that’s my expectation.
Doolittle: He offers a much different set of skills than Hollis-Jefferson and the Nets will miss the latter’s defense. Still, Bogdanovic should continue to get opportunities in his new role. He didn’t shoot the ball well as a reserve and I think playing with Brook Lopez helps him a lot in terms of getting better looks. The Brooklyn second unit doesn’t have a player like to contract the defense. As a starter, Bogdanovic has hit 46 percent from deep with Lopez on the court, per NBA.com/stats. With Lionel Hollins as his coach, you do worry that his minutes could fluctuate because of defense. But at the bottom line, the Nets have been very competitive with Bogdanovic as a starter in the past four games. I don’t see any reason why he can’t keep up what he’s been doing.
Carpenter: Entering the season, I liked Bogdanovic, because I thought he would play a significant role for the Nets and make an impact in fantasy. Per StatMuse, he averaged 15.9 PPG, 2.1 3-PPG, 3.6 RPG, 51.0 FG% and 91.7 FT% in the 24 games in which he took double-digit field goal attempts last season. Unfortunately, he shot just 40 percent in November, RHJ performed pretty well, and he took a backseat. The rookie’s surgery will keep him out until at least the All-Star break, so Bogdanovic has a good chance to take 10 shots per game and contribute as a quality scorer and 3-point shooter for the foreseeable future. If you need that sort of production, pick him up to see if he can hit his stride now.