Starting Five: Is Gordon Hayward a future fantasy superstar?
This week’s contributors are ESPN NBA Insider Bradford Doolittle and ESPN Fantasy analysts Joe Kaiser and yours truly, Tom Carpenter.
Kaiser: I love Hayward’s fantasy value because he contributes in so many ways, but I don’t see him ever rising too far above these post All-Star break numbers. And that’s OK. As long as this is his ceiling, he’s a player you can expect to be available somewhere in the 30s in next year’s fantasy draft. That’s not a bad place to land Hayward as the third or fourth best player on your fantasy team.
Doolittle: I’d say that’s more like the baseline for his numbers going forward. Hayward is a really good player just hitting his prime, and the Jazz will eventually figure out that they are at their best when Hayward has the ball in his hands. Eventually the Jazz will have a point guard (Dante Exum) that allows them to push the pace a little more often, which will also boost Hayward’s numbers.
Carpenter: If he were on a fast-paced team willing to feed him the rock heavily, he could have top-10 upside. The issue is that the Jazz remain one of the slower-paced teams in the Association and don’t force-feed him the ball. Appropriately, his usage rate over the past month is nearly identical to that of LaMarcus Aldridge, who is in the same boat with the Spurs. When assessing fantasy futures, it’s a waste of time to wish a higher pace and usage for a player when there are no signs of it actually coming his way. Until something changes, I think this is his ceiling with the Jazz into next season.
Kaiser: While both of the double-doubles came against inferior teams — the Philadelphia 76ers (11 points, 10 assists) and the Phoenix Suns (19 points, 11 assists) — Payton plays four games this week, and at least two of them serve as another golden opportunity to post great numbers (Los Angeles Lakers on Tuesday and Sacramento Kings on Friday). Payton also plays four games next week. With eight games in the next two weeks, he is definitely worth adding if he’s available in your league.
Doolittle: I think he’ll continue to be up and down. Two of those games were against Philadelphia and Phoenix, and the other one was against a depleted Chicago squad. Also, this last performance came with Victor Oladipo out, which always seems to boost Payton’s numbers. His assist numbers seem real though, as he’s been up in that category for a pretty good stretch at this point.
Carpenter: The real key for Payton is that he is getting a consistent 30 minutes per game. I didn’t think that Brandon Jennings would impact Payton too much, and I don’t think that will change down the stretch. With those consistent minutes as a starting point guard, I don’t think it is out of line to expect him to churn out eight-plus dimes per game the rest of the way. His bigger issue will be as a scorer, where he lacks consistency at this stage of his career. He may have trouble topping the 10 PPG-mark the rest of the way.
Kaiser: Mirotic was having a rough go of it this season, shooting right around 38 percent, before missing 40 days due to injury. Given the emergence of Doug McDermott and the return of Mike Dunleavy Jr. while Mirotic was out, I have low expectations for Mirotic over the final weeks of the fantasy season.
Doolittle: He’s a rhythm shooter and as such, I suspect he’ll be rusty as a shooter. Also, given the nature of a malady like appendicitis, not to mention the subsequent complications, it’s going to take time for him to return to a full minutes load. The Bulls are desperate right now and in desperate times, coaches turn to veterans who defend. I think we’ll see a lot of Pau Gasol and Taj Gibson playing together and with Mike Dunleavy back, Mirotic will have fewer opportunities to pick up minutes at 3.
Carpenter: We should keep our expectations very limited for him, even once he gets his stamina and game legs back under him. His explosive March last year came with Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler sidelined. Both of those players currently are healthy, so the Bulls aren’t desperate for a scorer. Things may have been different if he were healthy when Butler was out, but it’s going to be difficult for Mirotic to see a large enough role down the stretch to make much fantasy noise.
Kaiser: Not all injuries are predictable, and sometimes injury-prone players find a way to stay on the court for the majority of the season. That being said, there are a number of players in the NBA who consistently miss big chunks of the season due to injuries. You mentioned a number of them in Gordon, Beal and Gallinari, and another one I’d throw in there is Tyreke Evans. If you draft these players, you have to realize what you’re getting, and the best approach is to either avoid them altogether or to look to trade them if they end up on your roster. Having a team full of injured players this time of the fantasy season is an absolute crusher that leaves little hope for winning the league championship.
Doolittle: I would never pick a lesser player based on injury uncertainty. The “obviousness” of even the most injury-prone players only becomes clear after the fact. If I have two relatively equal options, I’ll use health “certainty” as a tiebreaker, but beyond that I go with the better player. If it works, it helps keep you in the running for first place. If it doesn’t, maybe you drop to the bottom. But just like in the real NBA, who wants to be in the middle?
Carpenter: Some players simply can’t stay healthy. That’s just the way it is for some guys. Whether I choose to draft, add or acquire them depends largely on the makeup of my roster and the relevant value they may give me. If I can add off waivers or acquire via trade an injured or injury-prone player at a discount, I will do it. The same goes for a player who sinks in a draft — value is value. The key is to not have too many injury-prone players on your roster at one time, because you’ll be playing with fire and get burned.
Kaiser: Inconsistently. That’s the best answer I can give. The thing about Mudiay is he’s a poor shooter at this early stage in his NBA career. Just in the last week, we saw him have a 10-20 shooting night and a 9-16 shooting night, but he followed that up by a 6-21 performance on Sunday against Dallas. As a 34.6 percent shooter this season, you can expect him to have games where the ball just doesn’t go in the basket, and as along as that’s the case you can’t be surprised when he comes up with a dud performance from time to time. On the flip side, Mudiay is a distributor who has at least seven assists in four straight games, so when he finds his shooting touch he is capable of putting up some strong numbers.
Doolittle: He should put up some pretty good raw numbers. The Nuggets seem focused on development at this point, as they should, and Gallinari’s injury puts the ball in Mudiay’s hands that much more often. He’ll still have some horrific shooting performances, but he’s starting to get it. That’s been evidenced not just by better shot selection, but in improving turnover totals. Mudiay has a long way to go, but this is the time of the year for sparking performances in meaningless games.
Carpenter: As a rookie, he has a nice setup for the stretch run. He is on a bad team that is unlikely to be in a serious playoff push over the final month and is missing its best player in Danilo Gallinari. That means he should play big minutes and rack up stats with the ball in his hand a lot. He is available in 36.7 percent of ESPN leagues and I would add him in any format where you can handle what will continue to be atrocious percentages, because the rest of his stats could make a difference for your run to a title.