Starting Five: Is Carmelo’s health a concern?
This week’s contributors are ESPN NBA Insider Kevin Pelton, ESPN Fantasy analyst Jim McCormick and yours truly, Tom Carpenter.
Pelton: I don’t know that anyone who’s not a doctor can really tell you how Anthony’s knee is going to hold up the rest of the season. The procedure he underwent was a serious one that can be difficult to come back from — Danny Granger was never the same after having a patella debridement. The one factor I think fantasy owners can predict is how the Knicks’ playoff hopes affect Anthony’s availability. If they fall out of the race, there’s less reason to push Anthony if he’s not feeling well. And sitting tied for 11th, three games out of eighth, New York is teetering on the edge.
McCormick: By all accounts, Melo is on a maintenance program. So we’re going to see him sit back-to-backs and challenging stretches of the schedule. That said, his rich PER and career-high assist rate is helping to offset less offensive volume in the shooting department. Anthony’s investors might be best served keeping an eye on Derrick Williams as a handcuff of sorts, as he helps approximate lost numbers in Melo’s place.
Carpenter: Melo is nearly 32 years old, has 874 games under his belt, averaged 36.4 minutes per game for his career, so I already would be concerned about his health going forward this season. The fact that he still is dealing with soreness in a knee that underwent major surgery nearly a year ago should have all of his owners in panic mode, particularly since this Knicks squad should have nothing for which to play down the stretch. He has posted a couple of solid stat lines since his recent two-game absence, so it is a good time to trade him away before it’s too late.
Pelton: I’m dubious it will change things much. I don’t see any major stylistic changes because what style exactly would work better with their current roster? The only question here is whether Phoenix is openly tanking the rest of the season or still trying to win games, which could affect the availability of veterans like Brandon Knight and Tyson Chandler and in turn the playing time for younger players like Archie Goodwin and Alex Len. That’s the thing fantasy owners should be watching, not who’s on the sidelines.
McCormick: The team’s inscrutable frontcourt rotation might finally gain some stability. Alex Len has already earned a meaningful role, but his continued growth with heavy minutes could make him a truly relevant fantasy starter going forward. We can imagine even more clarity could enter the rotation if Markieff Morris is dealt. The rest of the season appears to be a showcase for the team’s young talent, so the real fantasy takeaway would be to chase shares of Len and Devin Booker.
Carpenter: This change isn’t going to offer a philosophical change in coaching style like the Cleveland Cavaliers are experiencing under Tyronn Lue. The key takeaway really is that fantasy owners who have veterans like Knight, Chandler and even P.J. Tucker should be nervous going forward, as it appears clear the Suns are going to focus on developing their youth down the stretch. If Knight can get back on the hardwood for a few games, you should aim to trade him immediately. On the flip side, the door is wide open for the likes of Goodwin, Devin Booker, Len and T.J. Warren to shine.
Pelton: When Kevin Love underwent shoulder surgery last year, I did some research on how it had affected player performance and found no consistent change coming back from the surgery. Kidd-Gilchrist should be more or less the same player he was last season. His role may be slightly different because of the addition of Nicolas Batum. When the Hornets are at full strength, he might be more in the 28-29 minute per game range than last year’s 30.9, but he’ll still be a consistent producer of rebounds without much of anything else in his stat line.
McCormick: That easing him thing really went quickly, as MKG is already a 30-minute cog for Charlotte. For the immediate future, he’s an amazing bargain in DFS given the gap in pricing and production. In season-long competition, strong board and steal rates could drive value past what should be somewhat modest offensive numbers.
Carpenter: When he entered the league, the hope was that he would turn into a Gerald Wallace-type player capable of double-doubling while chipping in strong steals and blocks totals. To date, we haven’t seen any real signs of that happening, though, so I see him better suited for points leagues. Also, considering that he currently is benefiting from the absence of Al Jefferson, Cody Zeller and Nicolas Batum, it would be wise to toss him into a trade while he is hot. Once those other players are back on the hardwood, MKG’s usage and production should scale back to some degree.
Pelton: I wouldn’t necessarily drop him because of the month of January, but if you were hanging on to Matthews in the hopes he would look healthier over the course of the season, that doesn’t seem to be the case. He just doesn’t have the lift he had before rupturing his Achilles, which is consistent with the major impact Achilles injuries have had in the past. I wouldn’t expect him to play much better than his overall season line the rest of the year.
McCormick: I think he’s in that streaming tier — so sure. This is likely a case where Matthews can return value next season, but is going to deal with inefficient results in this recovery campaign. The eye test suggests he just doesn’t have much lift on his jumper, this after he was one of the best shooters in the league last season. I’m confident in the player, but think this could be a lost season. If I’m wrong, adding a shooter like Booker from the Suns is always an option.
Carpenter: The issues for Matthews are two-fold. First, recovery from a ruptured Achilles takes time. Second, teammate Chandler Parsons is getting healthy and hitting his stride, which puts Matthews in a secondary role as a 3-point scorer on the wing. Neither of those factors is likely to change in the coming weeks, so I’m fine with moving on from Matthews if there is a better option available. Surely, I’d prefer the likes of Booker, Rodney Hood, Robert Covington and maybe even Evan Fournier as 3-point contributors in fantasy over Matthews, since they are younger.
Pelton: Jokic’s performance is always going to be somewhat matchup-dependent because he struggles to defend quicker big men. It’s notable that all three of those games came against teams that start two traditional bigs rather than using smaller lineups. So while Jokic appears to have held off Jusuf Nurkic‘s challenge to his starting spot because Nurkic is struggling with his conditioning after his patella surgery, I wouldn’t count on the kind of consistent minutes needed for Jokic to put up double-doubles routinely.
McCormick: The minutes won’t be there to support steady double-double production, but this is a high-usage talent who can regularly produce efficient results. I find Jokic more intriguing in DFS, given his ability to thrive in limited minutes, but the overall slash could be compromised with several frontcourt peers still in the mix. I do think he’s the team’s building block at the position, but just isn’t a full-time contributor yet.
Carpenter: Double-doubles may not be a regularity going forward, but what has made him particularly intriguing from a fantasy perspective is the other numbers he has been producing: 53.9 FG percentage, 81.3 FT percentage, 0.3 3-PPG, 2.9 APG, 1.5 SPG in January. I’m still a believer in Jusuf Nurkic and think he will get his chance after the All-Star break — he averaged just 13.0 minutes per game in January, yet sported the 12th-best usage rate in the NBA among players who took part in at least 10 games — so I think he and Jokic could end up capping each other statistically. But when a player is as hot as Jokic, you should pick him up and ride him until he cools off.