Starting Five: Debating Cousins’ long-term fantasy potential
This week’s contributors are ESPN Fantasy analysts Jim McCormick, John Cregan, and yours truly, Tom Carpenter.
McCormick: Even if the standard deviation model the Player Rater employs doesn’t adore Cousins — which I assume is based largely on his modest 44-percent shooting clip — I find him to be a top-10 asset going forward given his awesome volume-driven statistical offerings. If we view Russell Westbrook‘s usage rate solely for games with Kevin Durant active, it’s then Cousins who leads the league in this estimate of offensive consumption. Clearly I am a Boogie apologist — but I can’t imagine there are 10 commodities with greater production profiles going forward.
Cregan: If he extrapolates the uptick in his January production? Then, yes, he has a chance to force himself back into the top 10. With a player like Cousins, you have to look for emotional indicators, signs that buy-in is occurring and DMC’s motor is fully engaged. For Cousins, follow the rebounds. Points are important. But when Cousins is boarding, his production rises across the board. And in January, Cousins is gathering 13.4 rebounds a night, up from 9.8 in December. That buoys everything else. His field goal percentage is up 10 percent (.489 versus .391). Almost the same for free throw percentage (.765 versus .678). The other key lies in Cousins’ ability to stay on the court. This month, Cousins’ fouls per game have dropped (from 4.1 to 3.8) even as his minutes have spiked (31.8 to 35.6)
Carpenter: The big issue for Cousins this season has been his shoddy shooting from both the field and the stripe, because he takes such a high volume of field goal and free throw attempts. In eight games this month, he is averaging 48.9 FG% and 76.5 FT%. If he can maintain that pace, he will easily finish in the top 10. If he simply meets his career averages of 46.0 FG% and 73.2 FT%, he will be on the borderline. Cousins has been balling so well lately that his buy-low window has closed, but I’m a believer in him as a beast for the second half of the season.
McCormick: Griffin is 14th in usage rate, just ahead of Carmelo Anthony and Durant. Usage rate heavily values players who directly impact the outcome of offensive possessions. The return of a player like Griffin — who consumes such a heavy share of touches for a top NBA offense — will naturally lower the ceiling for Paul and even guys like J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford. Paul just doesn’t have the ball in his hands as much when Griffin is active. Paul is still a special talent in this point-guard driven fantasy climate, but we can’t deny he’s averaged more points, assists and fantasy points with Griffin sidelined since the start of last season. There will be a bit of a dip in offensive output based on this fairly sizable sample.
Cregan: Drafting off of recent history? It’s going to make a dent. Paul has used Griffin’s latest absence to (again) assert his statistical dominance. Sans Griffin, Paul’s production has spiked by about 15 percent. For January, Paul is averaging 19.3 points, 11.7 assists, 2.0 steals, and 2.0 3s, while shooting .458 from the floor and .500 from deep.
Carpenter: CP3 has been carrying the Clippers on his shoulders the past few weeks, predictably taking a lot more shots and scoring more. The downside is that his field goal percentage has slipped from 45.9 FG% before Griffin went down to 41.6 FG% since. So, while his scoring should drop upon Griffin’s return, we should see his shooting rise. In fact, so long as he stays healthy, I think we should see him get back toward his usual 47-48 FG%.
McCormick: Taj Gibson has averaged 34.3 minutes without Noah in the lineup since the start of last season in a 20-game sample, compared to 24.2 minutes with Noah active. He’s my choice for the biggest boon in fantasy value going forward. Nikola Mirotic also stands to consume more meaningful minutes and touches, but it’s Gibson who I believe is the key beneficiary.
Cregan: The upside maven in me wants to type “Bobby Portis.” But the responsible rec is “Taj Gibson.” Gibson should be good for close to a double-double and a block per night. One word of warning; Gibson’s blocks rate is taking a troubling downward trajectory. For 2015-16, he’s only averaging 0.9 per game (down from a career 1.3 BPG rate), and he’s gone six games without a single rejection.
Carpenter: I think Pau Gasol, Gibson, Mirotic and Portis will each pick up a little bit of the minutes and production we’ve seen from Noah this season, but since he wasn’t scoring, his absence won’t open the door for a huge leap in production from any of them. To wit, per ESPN Stats & Info, here is what they did in 10 games without Noah this season:
McCormick: It would be Rubio, as Evans and Knight profile as richer usage assets. Rubio is still an elite option for steals and dimes, but a long injury history and usage overlap with Zach LaVine are greater concerns compared to these position peers.
Cregan: Um … all of them? In terms of production vs. probability of getting re-injured, I’ll stick with the classics and Evans. Even when relatively healthy, Evans is streaky. His propensity for injury just adds to his volatility.
Carpenter: For me it is Evans. He sports top-50 upside in fantasy, but he has battled knee injuries throughout his career. Making matters more concerning is that he just had his right knee drained; the same joint upon which he had surgery in October and May. It’s difficult to trust a high-volume player long term if he has been dealing with ongoing issues with the same knee for most of a year. I recommend trading him away as soon as he strings together a couple of good games.
McCormick: I like Trey Lyles of the Jazz to enjoy a nice second half. He’s widely available in ESPN leagues and is especially helpful at the moment with Trevor Booker and Derrick Favors ailing. Minutes might be an issue, but this talented stretch big has some real potential to shine with Booker proving uninspiring even when healthy, suggesting he could win the gig.
Cregan: I like the momentum D’Angelo Russell is building off the bench. His past-five game (11.9 PTS, 3.4 AST, 3.8 REB, 1.6 3PT, 1.2 STL) numbers all point towards an upswing. As the season progresses, Russell’s development will be prioritized, which only means more minutes. At some point, Byron Scott is going to need to put Russell back into the starting lineup, and his production will spike.
Carpenter: I will go with Devin Booker, who already is warming up, averaging 14.7 PPG, 1.0 3-PPG, 1.0 SPG in seven January games. He also has the perfect situation for a rookie to break out completely, as he plays for a terrible team, which means his usage rate could blow up later in the season – especially since Eric Bledsoe is done for the season and Brandon Knight is prone to injuries. He has plenty of upside as a scorer and 3-point contributor with terrific percentages.