Starting Five: Debating C.J. McCollum vs. Reggie Jackson
It takes time to answer questions like whether Reggie Jackson or C.J. McCollum is a better rotisserie play, what you should expect from Brandon Jennings and Marcus Smart as they return from injury, whether Terrence Jones is worth a roster spot or, whether the #FreeBobbyPortis campaign is actually coming to fruition.
Don’t worry; I have the answers for you.
Each Monday this season, I’ll tip the week off by posting and seeking answers to five key questions, thus “The Starting Five.”
This week’s contributors are ESPN Fantasy analysts Joe Kaiser, Jim McCormick and yours truly.
Kaiser: It’s very close, but I’d lean McCollum in most cases. There is a lot less talent at shooting guard than at point guard this season, which makes McCollum a more valuable commodity if everything else is equal, but there are other reasons to side with McCollum. For one, he is playing around three and a half more minutes a game than Jackson, and that differential could grow as soon as Brandon Jennings returns for the Pistons. Secondly, any ground McCollum loses to Jackson in terms of assists (3.9 vs. 6.5 APG) and rebounds (3.3 vs. 4.2 RPG) he makes up for in 3-pointers (2.5 vs. 1.5 3PG) and turnovers (2.2 vs. 3.1 TPG).
McCormick: Usage rate isn’t everything, but it does help identify the offensive share a particular player claims. Jackson is seventh in the league in usage rate, an estimate of the number of team plays a player directly influences. McCollum is 27th and is having an awesome breakout campaign thanks to rich shooting freedom on the Blazers, but I find shooting to be easier to source in this space-and-pace era, with ball-dominant point guard play still more rare and providing a more diverse set of stats. But really, both have rich, high-minute roles and can be considered top-10 options at their respective positions.
Carpenter: As combo guards with heavy workloads for their teams, these are very similar players. I give the slight edge to Jackson for two reasons. First, as a point guard working pick-and-rolls with Andre Drummond, Jackson is going to get extra assists to buoy his fantasy value when his shot isn’t falling. McCollum doesn’t have that fallback option with the Portland Trail Blazers. Second, I’m a sucker for players who shoot a lot of free throws. Jackson is shooting 85.7 percent FG on 5.0 FGA per game this season and has taken at least eight attempts seven times this season. McCollum shoots them well (86.4 percent FG), too, but has averaged just 2.8 FTA this season and has taken more than five free throws in a game just once this season.
Kaiser: Unless you’re in a big 14-team league, Smart isn’t someone you need to feel the need to rush out and add to your roster. He just hasn’t shown the consistency in his one-plus seasons to warrant that, plus this is a Celtics team that relies heavily on Isaiah Thomas to carry it offensively, so it’s difficult to envision Thomas losing minutes at this point. In nine games prior to the leg injury this season, Smart averaged 9.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 1.8 steals while shooting a chilly 33.3 percent from the field. But I expect his minutes to be down until he shows more efficiency on the court.
McCormick: Smart is entrenched in a frustrating committee with shared roles and minutes among the Celtics’ rotation. Isaiah Thomas will clearly get his high-usage share of the offense, but it’s really quite variant and game-specific for who steps up beyond him in the box score for Boston each game. Smart is a really nice option for steals and flashed strong assist rates early in the season, but Avery Bradley and Evan Turner just have so much overlap with Smart, that a trade or injury would need to occur to facilitate 10-team league interest.
Carpenter: Smart’s production isn’t ideal for either points or roto leagues. His usage is too light to make a big impact in points systems and his scoring and percentages (36.2 percent FG, 65.4 percent FT) arguably outweigh his steal and 3-point production in roto games. In deeper roto leagues, he will be worth adding now to see if he can stay healthy and chip in enough 3s, steals and dimes to make a mark. Otherwise, I would take a wait-and-see approach.
Kaiser: It was great to see Portis jump out with the big game, but as long as the Bulls have so many players in the frontcourt, it’s difficult to envision a scenario where the rookie plays more than 10-15 minutes a night. Remember, his breakout game came on a night when the Bulls were resting Pau Gasol following the four-overtime loss to Detroit. On most nights, Gasol is going to be in the lineup as will Taj Gibson, Nikola Mirotic and Joakim Noah.
McCormick: As Nick Friedell shares in his piece for ESPN, Portis is working his way into the rotation, but is behind Pau Gasol, Nikola Mirotic, Taj Gibson and Joakim Noah, all who have more established roles and production patterns. I get the Twitter hashtag campaign for Portis, but at the team’s deepest depth chart, it’s just not viable for steady minutes, with only injuries above him as the answer for more enduring exposure.
Carpenter: When there is an unproven player who has shown this type of statistical upside but is blocked by veterans in the rotation, any time we see him blow up a box score, you should sprint to add him as a free agent. He is exactly the kind of player who can change the landscape of fantasy this season. This is especially the case when his coach was dropping hints before the impact outing that he wants to find minutes for him. What to expect going forward is unclear, because Pau Gasol, Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson and Nikola Mirotic aren’t going to be booted out of the rotation. For now, we should add him and cross our fingers that Fred Hoiberg pushes him into a larger role going forward.
Kaiser: Jones is only valuable if he is able to carve out a consistent role where he averages more than 25 minutes a night in that confusing Rockets frontcourt. Until then, you should let him be someone else’s problem. The concern isn’t just the return of Donatas Motiejunas, who has already started ahead of Jones at power forward, but also emerging big man Clint Capela, who, quite frankly, has shown more on both ends of the court in the first seven to eight weeks of the season. Additionally, lingering rumors have the Rockets interested in Markieff Morris of the Suns, and if Jones isn’t a part of such a deal then the potential is there for Jones to get lost in Houston’s muddled power forward depth chart.
McCormick: The Rockets’ rotation figures to be frustrating all season past James Harden and Dwight Howard and arguably the steady low-end role Patrick Beverley serves. Jones is like Marcus Smart to me, a guy I can stream and add and drop throughout the season a few times, but wouldn’t want to trust the fluctuations in usage as each competes for meaningful minutes.
Carpenter: I had high hopes for Jones this season and thought he would break out as a double-double and blocks-threat with Josh Smith out of the picture. However, injuries and an inconsistent role have limited his output. With Dwight Howard playing surprisingly well, and Motiejunas and Capela chipping in quality minutes, it’s going to be tough for Jones to carve out the 30-plus minutes he really needs to bust loose. I’m willing to hold him in deeper leagues in the hope that he or D12 are dealt away and minutes open up, but I’m ready to move on in 10-teamers. In fact, I cut him over the weekend to add Portis, even though he has his own depth-chart issues.
Kaiser: Achilles injuries are big ones in the NBA. We saw what it did to Kobe. We are seeing Wesley Matthews struggle to get back to his former self, even while playing big minutes. With Reggie Jackson playing in Detroit, I expect the Pistons to be careful with Jennings and bring him back slowly in a reserve capacity. I expect him to play between 20-25 minutes and average around 10-12 points and 3-5 assists per game, which makes him more of a streaming option in 12-team leagues than someone to keep on your roster.
McCormick: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is second in the league in minutes with 37.9 per game and rotational guard Steve Blake is regularly in the high teens in minutes, so Jennings will likely consume some minutes from both profiles going forward. Jennings is likely to be the off-the-bench microwave in a Jamal Crawford-esque role, but he’s largely been an inefficient option who demands the ball in order to produce. Think Tony Wroten with fewer minutes. I’m clearly not too enthused but do find some value for those in deeper formats with barren benches.
Carpenter: I can’t get overly excited about the statistical prospects of a shoot-first point guard, especially when he has shot 39.1 percent FG for his career, is coming off a ruptured Achilles and is destined for a bench role. Since this is a contract season and I don’t think he really fit into the Pistons’ long-term plans, I think he should be eased in slowly during the next month, then have his minutes ramp up in February to showcase him for a deadline trade. If he gets dealt to a team with a starting gig available, then he would be a viable fantasy option. I see that as a best-case scenario that has a lot of “ifs” and won’t pay off until late February, so I can’t recommend adding him now, outside of deeper leagues.