Starting Five: Debating Beal, Frazier, Westbrook and more
If you dominated the first week, that does not mean you have the championship locked up. If your team has been a complete disaster, do not panic.
We always warn against using small sample sizes, and six days out of a 25-week campaign is just that.
Still, questions arise and need to be cleared up. Just how good can Russell Westbrook and James Harden be? What about Bradley Beal and Kris Dunn? Will Tim Frazier maintain value once Jrue Holiday returns? How should you handle adding and dropping players early on?
Don’t worry; we have the answers for you.
At the start of each week this season, I’ll tip things off by posing and seeking answers to five key questions, thus The Starting Five.
This week’s contributors are ESPN Fantasy’s Joe Kaiser and Kyle Soppe and DFS expert Renee Miller.
Kaiser: Beal is someone I ranked lower than most heading into the season, in part due to his lengthy injury history since joining the NBA. That isn’t the only reason, however. Known as a good shooter, Beal has a career shooting percentage of just 42.6 and has never averaged more than 1.9 3-PPG in any of his first four seasons. Given that he’s also not a big rebounder, distributor or steals guy from the guard position, I see his ceiling no higher than 50th, even when healthy for a full 82 games.
Soppe: Statistically speaking, I don’t see why he couldn’t finish 2017 as a slightly poorer version of 2016 Kemba Walker. The Wizards lack other options, something that I believe can result in a major usage uptick should Beal find a way to avoid the injury bug. The relationship, or lack thereof, with John Wall is a narrative to watch, but until we see it translate to on-the-court issues, I’m overlooking it. Don’t forget that Beal is only 23 years of age and has almost 250 games of NBA experience under his belt.
Miller: Beal is a true shooting guard. He’s a career 42 percent shooter from the field and shoots 39.6 percent from 3-point range. With little in the way of peripherals to offer you, Beal’s ceiling is limited. That said, he’s a very good complement to a ball handler like Wall. In my mind, when healthy Beal is a solid, matchup-proof 20/3/3 kind of player with the occasional 40-point game.
Kaiser: If you look back to last season, when the Pelicans ended the campaign with Holiday on the shelf due to a fractured orbital bone and Tyreke Evans also shut down, Frazier came off the bench behind veteran Toney Douglas and averaged 29.3 minutes in 16 games, averaging 13.1 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 7.5 APG and 1.4 SPG. However, Holiday is a much better player than Douglas, and Evans is expected back in December as well. With Holiday in the lineup, I expect Frazier to see a steep decline in minutes and production. Once Evans returns as well, Frazier will likely be able to be dropped in most leagues, especially when you consider the other guards on this roster (Buddy Hield, Lance Stephenson and Langston Galloway) who deserve minutes.
Soppe: Not much. But the second part of this question is the real interest: When does Holiday return? That is an unknown at this moment and why Frazier needs to be universally owned. Holiday is dealing with some very serious family matters that are far bigger than basketball and is no sure bet to return at all this season. The scoring may dip a bit, but the former Nittany Lion Frazier is an assist asset at the very minimum with the potential for much more, given the 30-plus minute role that he is currently fulfilling.
Miller: Very little is the short answer. Holiday is a very capable guard when he’s healthy and will get the lion’s share of minutes/guard usage when he returns. It’s also a team that runs through Anthony Davis. The good news for Frazier is that he is getting crucial experience right now that will come in handy if Holiday should miss more time during the season. I’m only interested in Frazier if he starts.
Kaiser: If you look at the first three games, the thing that jumps out is the amount of shots Westbrook has taken (28.7 per game) compared to Harden (20). It’s just a few games, but that leads me to believe Westbrook will be a bigger scorer than Harden this season. I think the assist numbers will both hover around the 10-11 range for both players, with Westbrook having a smaller advantage there than he has in previous seasons due to Harden’s bigger role as a point guard under coach MIke D’Antoni.
Soppe: Give me Harden. Westbrook should hold the assist edge, but I’m banking on Harden’s ease of scoring giving him the win here. Westbrook gets to the line, but Harden is on a different level, and not only do those points add up in a hurry, they create a higher scoring floor. Add in Harden’s advantage from distance, and I think he nears 40 points-plus-assists per night while Westbrook finishes in the mid-30s.
Miller: Whomever you’re fortunate enough to own is starting every single chance you get, so this is really more of a fun exercise than any advice. Westbrook should enjoy the league’s highest usage all year long. If forced to pick, I go with Westbrook to lead in points and assists and possibly every other statistical category as well. The man is a beautiful basketball machine.
Kaiser: Dunn struggled mightily with his shot in the preseason and didn’t attempt many 3-pointers. His greatest attributes as a rookie will likely be generating steals and assists, especially since there are so many other options on the young Timberwolves who can score (Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine). Even in extended minutes, I expect him to put up so-so numbers in his rookie season, but he’s certainly worth a flyer in deeper leagues, where he might still be available. He has the talent to exceed my expectations.
Soppe: Better than Rubio. Listen, I love Rubio as much as anyone, but Dunn is the superior athlete and comes with a much more versatile skill set. He won’t offer the assist numbers of Rubio, but he walks into the NBA as a better scorer and should add strong defensive numbers as well. In this scenario , I would prefer Dunn over players like Darren Collison and LaVine, both of whom finished as top-20 point guards last season.
Miller: Backup point guards are typically more reliable for fantasy, including DFS, than replacement big men. Dunn is a rookie who struggles on offense, which is a concern to me. Many point guards don’t develop a good defensive game until much later in their careers, but Dunn seems to prioritize that aspect of the game. He needs to improve his shooting, but as a low-priced backup guard, Dunn could post lines of 4 points, 6 dimes, 3 boards and 4 steals and be a nice matchup-based play if Rubio misses time.
Kaiser: You have to consider a player’s upside and his history when it comes to determining how long you’re willing to wait for him to bust out of an early-season slump. Someone like Kenneth Faried, for example, is a proven rebounder and scorer who doesn’t contribute in a lot of other ways. If he starts the season slowly in his new role off the bench, he’s someone worth cutting, because even when he’s right, he’s not a major contributor in category leagues due to his lack of versatility in fantasy. Someone like Alex Len is a different story. He often starts the season slowly but heats up when given more of an opportunity, and he’s a player at a thinner position (center) who is capable of not only contributing as a scorer and rebounder, but also as a shot-blocker. That upside requires a bit more patience before you decide to cut him.
Soppe: I’m patient. Some may call it stubborn, but I trust the work I did in the preseason, so I’m not adjusting my thoughts on a player before Thanksgiving, regardless of how wrong (for better or worse) I may have been. Like baseball, basketball is a long season, so you have the luxury of time. I see many reactive owners make moves early on, likely overcompensating for a mistake they dealt with during the fantasy football season. You drafted these players for a reason: #TrustTheProcess
Miller: As a rule, I give good players a chance to be good. If your second- or third-round pick isn’t producing in the first week of the season, wait it out. It doesn’t mean you can’t be aggressive on the wire; that depends on the structure of the league and how competitive your league mates are. Being aggressive early could afford you some nice trade bait when your slow starter finally comes around.