Ravens-Bengals Thursday night: NFL betting odds, picks, tips
More Teams. More Games.
Tyler Fulghum states that while Tee Higgins is out for the matchup, Mark Andrews will be a player to watch during this primetime showdown. (0:38)
Week 11 gets started as the Cincinnati Bengals head on the road to face the Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 45.5) on “Thursday Night Football.”
So what can we expect from a betting standpoint?
Betting analysts Tyler Fulghum, Eric Moody, Seth Walder and Aaron Schatz are here to provide their thoughts.
Note: Odds by ESPN BET.
Fulghum: It factors into my confidence in the Ravens -3.5. Had Baltimore not completely blown its Week 10 game at home to Cleveland, I think there would be an increased chance of that kind of letdown. The fact so many of their mistakes allowed the Browns back into that game will yield a sharper focus for this matchup. They stay home, while the Bengals have to travel on short rest. Cincinnati’s offense will still be missing WR Tee Higgins. I expect this to be a difficult spot for the visitors.
Moody: It does factor into how I’m betting this game (Bengals +3.5). With a loss to the Ravens, the Bengals aren’t out of playoff contention, but things get difficult. Cincinnati is a team desperate for a win, and more importantly, desperate for a win against an AFC opponent. We should see that desperation on full display. Including the playoffs, the Bengals are 15-5 against the spread in their past 20 games as underdogs. Burrow & Co. should keep this game close.
Schatz: I’m not really factoring in last week’s crushing losses into how I handicap this game. Some players will have a hangover from such losses. Some players will overcome that and play even better to try to make up for the losses. I think those of us who evaluate the NFL from the outside have no idea which players are which and shouldn’t be trying to psychoanalyze the players to figure that out. So what matters to me is that the Ravens have been the best team in the NFL on a play-by-play basis according to DVOA and there’s no evidence that their offensive struggles in the fourth quarter have any predictive value as opposed to their offensive success overall. I think missing LT Ronnie Stanley balances out the Bengals missing Higgins, but despite that fact and even after adjusting our ratings for the fact that Burrow is healthy, I still favor Ravens -3.5.
Fulghum: The Ravens do have a great defense, but I don’t think it’s historical by any measure. The Bengals still have enough talent … and Joe Burrow. They’ll make a few plays.
Moody: The Ravens lead the league with 39 sacks, have notched 15 takeaways and rank second in total opponent yards per game. I agree with Tyler that this defense isn’t the 1985 Bears, I have confidence that Burrow and the Bengals’ offense will find a weakness to exploit. This game has too much at stake for Cincinnati not to find a way to move the football just like the Cleveland Browns last week.
Walder: They currently rank fourth in EPA per play since 2013, so I suppose the answer is yes: they are on pace to be one of the best defenses in a long time. No matter the designation, this is a legitimately great unit and a ton of credit goes to defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald for using simulated pressures to get the most out of this defense. On the back end they’ve been excellent too: they rank second-best behind only the Jets in defensive open score.
Schatz: Whether the Ravens have one of the best defenses in a long time depends on how many defenses you are counting among “the best defenses.” Their current defensive DVOA of -25.9% is good enough to lead the league in an average year if there wasn’t a team doing what the Browns are doing right now. (I’ll point out here that the Ravens do better in DVOA than EPA per play because of opponent adjustments.) That being said, the Browns game did show holes in the armor. They are down to just ninth against rushing, for example. They rank only 18th in DVOA against opposing No. 1 receivers, so Ja’Marr Chase might be able to get his yards. The Bengals will move the ball some, but I doubt they’ll score a ton of points. In fact, with the Bengals’ defense also improving in recent weeks, I like under 45.5 in this game.
Fulghum: This is another issue with the Bengals. Their pass rush is a little banged up. DE Sam Hubbard (ankle) is already OUT for the game and DE Trey Hendrickson (knee) is QUESTIONABLE at best. That’s an issue. Especially after the letdown last week against Cleveland, I fully expect Lamar to make amends.
Schatz: I don’t know if the Bengals really have one of the top pass rushes in the NFL. They rank 11th in adjusted sack rate and 20th in Pass Rush Win Rate. They have injuries, as Trevor points out. Then again, the Ravens have injuries on the offensive line, with Ronnie Stanley declared out. I’m sure the Bengals will get their share of pressure against Jackson but he’s handled that fine this season so far.
Fulghum: Mark Andrews Anytime TD (+155). The Bengals have struggled defending the TE this season. They’re 31st in fantasy points allowed to the position. Andrews hit them for 5/45/1 on eight targets in their Week 2 matchup. Coming off a disappointing performance in the loss to the Browns, don’t be surprised to see Andrews targeted early and often.
Moody: Mark Andrews over 55.5 receiving yards. All season long, the Bengals’ defense has been a favorable matchup for tight ends. Over the past three games, Cincinnati has faced Dalton Schultz, Dalton Kincaid and George Kittle. This group has averaged 100.3 receiving yards per game against the Bengals. Andrews has averaged 6.5 targets this season. Since 2021, he has averaged 76.8 receiving yards per game against the Bengals.
Walder: Patrick Queen over 7.5 tackles + assists (-114). Queen has gone over this line in seven of 10 games this season, and my model forecasts him for 8.5 tackles + assists on Thursday. Though it would be better for Queen’s tackle total if the Ravens don’t get out to a lead, he actually records a similar tackle share on pass plays to run plays, so he can still record tackles when Joe Burrow drops back.
Moody: Joe Burrow over 24.5 completions. The Bengals will heavily rely on Burrow, and with the Ravens allowing an average of 22.2 completions, he has a high floor. This season, Burrow boasts a 67% completion rate, averaging 38.6 pass attempts and 26.0 completions per game. Defensively, the Ravens aim to maintain two deep safeties to neutralize the Bengals’ vertical passing game while employing varied coverages. It’s unlikely that Baltimore will heavily blitz, opting instead to pressure Burrow into leveraging the short to intermediate passing game. So, I believe he’s going to have a lot of completions in this game, which leads to another betting recommendation.
Moody: Joe Mixon over 20.5 receiving yards. Mixon had five targets and four receptions for 36 receiving yards against the Ravens in Week 2. He’s well-positioned to deliver a similar performance. Since 2021, Mixon has averaged 41.5 receiving yards when targeted five or more times since 2021.
Walder: Lamar Jackson over 17.5 completions (-134). I’m sort of shocked because my completions model usually ends up very close to the line, but I’m all the way at 21.8 completions for Jackson on Thursday. One factor driving that: Jackson’s completion percentage is up to 70%, way up from 62% last season. In a new offense and playing with better receivers, I’m inclined to trust that this is a real change we should be buying.