NHL Awards Watch: Calder, Norris trophy races in state of chaos
Here’s the NHL Awards Watch for February. Again, this is a prediction of how I expect the voters would consider the current candidates, as well as a look at their merits. Keep in mind that the PHWA votes for the Hart, Norris, Calder, Selke and Lady Byng trophies; broadcasters vote for the Jack Adams; and general managers handle the Vezina. Also keep in mind my “You Gotta Be In It To Win It” protocol for the Hart and the Jack Adams.
All stats from Hockey-Reference.com, Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.
Current leader: Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers (83 points)
Watch out for: Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers (79 points)
Dark horse: Artemi Panarin, New York Rangers (70 points)
Current leader: David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins (38 goals)
Watch out for: Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs (36 goals)
Dark horse: Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche (30 goals)
Leader: Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche
Finalists: David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins; Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers
McDavid topped the PHWA midseason poll, which shouldn’t come as a surprise. A hockey writer’s appetite to cast a caveat-free MVP vote for McDavid is eclipsed only by our appetite for free candy in the press box.
But McDavid is going to have a Leon Draisaitl problem.
Draisaitl has moved ahead of McDavid in points (where he currently leads the NHL) and points per game, and he’s done so playing on a different line than McDavid, which is going to deflate the “product of Connor” counterargument. As I’ve written here before, there are those around the Oilers who believe Draisaitl has had the better season, even before his stats climbed ahead of McDavid’s. So while the default setting in the voting might be McDavid — and again, understandably so — what if Draisaitl ends up leading Edmonton in scoring, or the entire NHL, for that matter?
MacKinnon was second on the PHWA Hart ballot and, for my money, continues to build the strongest case. Through 50 games, he has 72 points; that’s 35 more points than Cale Makar at No. 2 for the Avalanche. He was without Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog for 16 games this season, and yet the Avalanche remain snugly in a playoff seed in the competitive Central Division. He’s sixth in goals scored above average (17.4), better than McDavid, Draisaitl and Pastrnak. Again, leading your playoff-bound team in scoring by a country mile is a surefire way to stake claim to the Hart Trophy. Two years after MacKinnon was runner-up to a Taylor Hall, who did just that, I think he is a compelling Hart pick.
But sometimes the voters just go for the best offensive player on one of the most successful teams, something to which Nikita Kucherov can attest. Pastrnak’s 38 goals still led the NHL entering Monday’s games, and his 1.42 points per game still ranked him fifth overall. As we said last month: If you’re picking a Boston Bruins forward for the Hart Trophy, then Brad Marchand might have the stronger case analytically, at seventh in the NHL in goals scored above average (17.1). But Pastrnak, right now, has the glamour stats lead for a conference title contender. Hard to argue with that.
While Pasta is sticking to it now, that third Hart nomination is wide open. Auston Matthews of the Toronto Maple Leafs has a case, as he’s in position to potentially win the Rocket Richard goal-scoring title as a center, something only Sidney Crosby (twice), Steven Stamkos (twice) and Vincent Lecavalier have done since the award’s inception in 1998. Florida Panthers winger Jonathan Huberdeau (65 points in 50 games) is having a Hart-caliber season, but will have to overcome the general voting indifference to his franchise for major awards not named the Lady Byng.
Buffalo Sabres star Jack Eichel and New York Rangers star Artemi Panarin are as worthy of the award as any of the current leaders, but their teams need to be a heck of a lot closer to the playoff bubble for consideration.
The biggest dark horse for the Hart, however, has to be Patrick Kane of the Chicago Blackhawks. He has 65 points in 52 games, or 21 more than the next-leading scorer on his team. He doesn’t have a strong analytics case (he’s seventh on his own team in goals scored above average), but if the Blackhawks somehow creep into the wild card and Kane’s traditional numbers hold up, it’s not outlandish to think the 2016 Hart winner could end up a finalist.
Leader: John Carlson, Washington Capitals
Finalists: Roman Josi, Nashville Predators; Alex Pietrangelo, St. Louis Blues
Expect to see a lot of this sort of thing as the Norris Trophy race heats up: