NFL Week 6 betting nuggets: Notable road favorites
Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs have fallen to 3-13 ATS in their past 16 games, and for the first time since the 2019 postseason, they are no longer Super Bowl favorites. They have fallen behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills. Buffalo hopes to cover its seventh straight road game when it visits the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football.
Favorites: 9-7 ATS last week (35-45 ATS this season)
Home teams: 7-9 ATS last week (35-45 ATS this season)
Overs: 9-7 last week (37-43 this season)
Best team ATS: Dallas (5-0)
Worst teams ATS: Kansas City, Washington, San Francisco, Jacksonville, New York Jets (all 1-4)
Highest over percentage: Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Los Angeles Rams, Washington, Dallas (all 4-1)
Lowest over percentage: Pittsburgh, Chicago, Seattle, Denver, New England, Los Angeles Chargers, Cincinnati, Carolina (all 1-4)
Miami Dolphins (-3.5) vs Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 9:30 a.m. ET (London)
Favorites are 18-11 ATS in London games.
Miami has the worst cover margin in the NFL this season (-11.2). Miami lost outright the only time it was favored this season (lost by 10 as 2.5-point favorite vs. Indianapolis).
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ESPN Chalk home
The past three teams with 0-5 records or worse to be underdogs of four points or fewer all won outright (all since 2019).
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS this season (0-3 ATS at home).
Jacksonville has lost 20 straight games outright, going 7-13 ATS in that span.
Over the past two seasons, Jacksonville is 0-5 ATS when it is not at least a six-point underdog. It is 1-10 ATS in its past 11 such games dating to Week 9 of 2019.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-10), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
Double-digit favorites are 5-2 ATS this season.
Since Peyton Manning left, Indianapolis has been a double-digit favorite six times, and the game went under the total each time.
Indianapolis is 1-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite under Frank Reich with one outright loss.
Indianapolis is 12-4-1 ATS vs. Houston since 2013.
Green Bay Packers (-4.5) at Chicago Bears, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
Aaron Rodgers is 10-3 ATS and outright in his career on the road against Chicago.
Green Bay has covered the past four meetings.
Green Bay has covered four straight games after losing its season opener 38-3 as a favorite to New Orleans.
All three Justin Fields starts have gone under the total. He is 2-1 outright and ATS.
Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) at Washington Football Team, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
Kansas City is no longer favored to win the Super Bowl or the AFC West title. It’s the first time since entering the 2018 season that the Chiefs have not been division favorites, and it’s the first time since entering the 2019 divisional round that the Chiefs have not been Super Bowl favorites.
Kansas City is 3-13 ATS in its past 16 games, including the playoffs (1-4 ATS this season).
Washington is 0-3 ATS at home this season.
Andy Reid is 43-22-1 ATS on the road with Kansas City (17-9-1 ATS with Patrick Mahomes).
Kansas City is 9-1 outright and ATS all time against Washington with seven straight covers.
Minnesota Vikings (-1) at Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
Minnesota is 2-9 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season and has failed to cover in seven straight games.
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If Carolina closes as favorite, it is 1-4 ATS as a home favorite under coach Matt Rhule. Carolina is 9-5 ATS as an underdog under Rhule (9-3 ATS past 12 games).
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its past five games when the line is between +3 and -3. Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its past five games in that spot.
Carolina has lost and failed to cover back-to-back games after starting 3-0 outright and ATS.
Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens (-3), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS this season.
Los Angeles is 49-22-5 ATS as road underdog since 2004 (69%). Justin Herbert is 5-2 ATS as a road underdog.
Lamar Jackson is 24-16-2 ATS in his career. Herbert is 12-8 ATS in his career.
Los Angeles is 8-1 ATS in its past nine games.
Baltimore is 8-3 ATS in its past 11 games (both dating to last season).
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Detroit Lions, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
Detroit is 0-5 outright but 3-2 ATS. It is the fourth team in the past 20 seasons to start 0-5 outright but have a winning record ATS in that span (2020 Giants, 2017 49ers, 2014 Raiders).
Cincinnati has not been a road favorite of at least a field goal since 2017.
Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS as a favorite under Zac Taylor (since 2019).
The past four Cincinnati games have gone under the total.
Los Angeles Rams (-9.5) at New York Giants, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
Double-digit favorites are 5-2 ATS this season.
New York is 3-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog under coach Joe Judge and 5-2 ATS when getting at least seven points.
In the past 30 seasons, New York is 5-0 ATS as a double-digit home underdog with two outright wins.
Last season, New York lost by two as a 12.5-point home underdog against Tampa Bay on Monday Night Football.
This is the third time Rams coach Sean McVay has been a double-digit road favorite. He was a 14-point road favorite at Arizona in 2018 (covered) and a 10-point favorite against Matthew Stafford and Detroit (covered).
The last time Los Angeles was a double-digit favorite, it lost outright as a 17-point favorite against the New York Jets last season.
Since 2001, New York is 9-1 ATS against Los Angeles, including covering a 13.5-point spread last season (lost 17-9).
Over the past five seasons, New York is 9-24-1 ATS at home and 7-18 ATS as a home underdog.
Daniel Jones is 4-11 ATS at home and 3-8 ATS as a home underdog.
Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns (-3), Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET
Since 1985, teams that are 5-0 or better and betting underdogs are 15-7 ATS (11-11 outright) with five straight covers. Four of the past five instances (since 2015), the underdog undefeated team won outright.
Arizona is 3-0 ATS on the road this season and 4-1 ATS overall.
Cleveland is 6-0 ATS in nonconference games since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, Cleveland is 6-0 outright after a loss but only 1-5 ATS.
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3), Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET
Las Vegas is 0-3 ATS in its past three games after winning its first two games outright as an underdog.
Denver has lost back-to-back games outright as a favorite after starting 3-0 outright and ATS.
Las Vegas is 5-1 ATS against Denver since 2018 (Jon Gruden’s first season). The under also is 5-1 in those matchups.
Ten of the past 12 meetings have gone under the total.
Last season, all three teams to change coaches midseason covered the spread in their first game with the new coach (Houston, Atlanta, Detroit).
Teddy Bridgewater is 38-16 ATS in his career, but he has failed to cover back-to-back starts for the second time in his career (Weeks 1-2 of last season). He has never failed to cover in three straight games.
Denver is 13-7 ATS after a loss under Vic Fangio (since 2019).
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at New England Patriots, Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET
Dallas is the only team in the NFL that is undefeated against the spread this season (5-0 ATS).
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Last season, Dallas started 0-8 ATS. It’s the first team to start 5-0 ATS since 2018 Kansas City (7-0 ATS).
New England is 15-4 ATS and 12-7 outright as a home underdog under coach Bill Belichick (6-1 AT, 5-2 straight up since 2006). He is 6-3 ATS as a home underdog with quarterbacks other than Tom Brady (4-5 SU).
New England is 49-24-1 ATS as an underdog under Belichick (25-10 ATS since 2006).
Belichick is 16-11 ATS with New England as an underdog without Brady.
Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5), Sunday at 8:20 p.m. ET
Pittsburgh has lost five straight games outright as a favorite, including the playoffs, the longest drought the franchise has had in the Super Bowl era (since 1966).
Geno Smith is 5-0 ATS in his past five starts (final four with Jets, only start with Giants).
Seattle is 39-24-2 ATS as an underdog under coach Pete Carroll (15-12 ATS without Russell Wilson).
Seattle is 16-8 ATS as an underdog of at least four points under Carroll.
Buffalo Bills (-5.5) at Tennessee Titans, Monday at 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC)
Buffalo has the best cover margin in the NFL (+15.3). That’s the fourth-best mark by any team through five games in the past 20 seasons. Buffalo has covered four straight games, all by at least 15 points.
Buffalo has covered six straight road games.
Josh Allen is 16-6-1 ATS on the road in his career.
Tennessee has gone 15-5-1 to the over since the start of last season. The over is 24-6-1 in the regular season in Ryan Tannehill starts since he joined the team.
Home teams are 4-1 ATS in Monday games.