NFL Week 15 betting nuggets: Favorites and overs trending up
Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are one of those big favorites against the New Orleans Saints. It is the first time in Sean Payton’s career that he has been a double-digit underdog. Brady has become the first odds-on favorite this season to win the NFL MVP.
The two hottest teams against the spread are the New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers. The Patriots have covered seven in a row, but are underdogs on the road against the Indianapolis Colts. The Packers are 11-2 ATS, tied for the best 13-game start in the Super Bowl era. They are road favorites against the Baltimore Ravens.
Home teams: 7-7 ATS last week (91-116-1 ATS this season)
Favorite: 11-3 ATS last week (96-109-1 ATS this season)
Overs: 10-3-1 last week (93-112-3 this season)
Best teams ATS: Green Bay (11-2), Dallas (10-3)
Worst teams ATS: New York Jets (3-10), Jacksonville (4-9), Chicago (4-9)
Best over teams: Indianapolis (8-5), Minnesota (8-5)
Best under teams: Jacksonville (11-2), Denver (10-3)
New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5), Saturday at 8:20 ET
New England has covered seven straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL.
New England is 3-1 ATS and 2-2 outright as an underdog this season. It has won its last two games outright as an underdog.
Home favorites of under a field goal are 6-14 outright and ATS this season.
New England is 5-1 ATS on the road this season.
New England is 12-9 ATS off a bye under Bill Belichick (5-2 ATS in last seven games – did not cover last season).
Indianapolis is 3-0 outright and 2-0-1 ATS after a bye under Frank Reich. Indianapolis is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 games off a bye week.
Bill Belichick is 51-25-1 ATS as an underdog.
Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills (-10.5), Sunday at 1 ET
Carolina is 0-3 outright and ATS in its last three games, all since Cam Newton became the starter. Carolina was favored in all three of those games.
This is the most points Carolina has been an underdog by this season. The previous high was in Week 10 when Carolina was a seven-point underdog at Arizona, a game Carolina won outright.
Cam Newton has been a double-digit underdog in the regular season once in his career, his second career start at Green Bay in 2011 (lost by seven).
Carolina is 8-2 ATS as a road underdog under Matt Rhule.
Carolina is 18-8 ATS all-time as a double-digit underdog.
This is the fifth time this season Buffalo has been a double-digit favorite, second-most in the NFL (Tampa Bay: seven, including this week). Buffalo is 2-1-1 ATS in that spot, including an outright loss as a 15.5-point favorite at Jacksonville, the largest upset loss in the NFL this season.
Buffalo is 15-1 to win the Super Bowl, the longest odds it has had at any point since odds opened in February at Caesars Sportsbook.
Favorites of at least 3.5 points were 9-0 ATS last week and are 17-2 ATS in the last two weeks.
In the last 10 seasons, teams .500 or below cover 55.1% of the time against teams below .500 in December/January games including going 48-32 ATS in the last three seasons (60%). Last week, they were 9-3 ATS.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-10), Sunday at 1 ET
Miami has covered seven straight meetings.
Miami has won and covered five straight games.
Miami has covered four straight home games.
Miami is 6-1 ATS as a home favorite under Brian Flores.
Miami has covered five straight games after a bye week.
Miami has been a double-digit favorite only one time since 2010 (2020 vs Cincinnati – won by 12).
New York is 3-10 ATS this season, worst in the NFL.
New York has lost nine straight division games (2-7 ATS) and has failed to cover six straight division games. Since 2018, New York is 5-17 ATS in division games.
Favorites of at least 3.5 points were 9-0 ATS last week and are 17-2 ATS in the last two weeks.
Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) at New York Giants, Sunday at 1 ET
Dallas is 10-3 ATS this season, the second-best mark in the NFL behind Green Bay (11-2 ATS), including 8-0 ATS in conference games and 7-1 ATS against teams with losing records.
Dallas is 6-1 ATS on the road this season and 3-0 ATS as a road favorite.
New York home games are 5-0-1 to the under this season.
The over is 17-8 in 25 meetings since 2009 including 4-1 in the last five meetings.
Dallas has not been a double-digit favorite at New York since 1980.
Favorites of at least 3.5 points were 9-0 ATS last week and are 17-2 ATS in the last two weeks.
In the last 10 seasons, teams .500 or below cover 55.1% of the time against teams below .500 in December/January games including going 48-32 ATS in the last three seasons (60%). Last week, they were 9-3 ATS.
Tennessee Titans (-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday at 1 ET
Since 2018, Pittsburgh is 17-6-1 ATS as an underdog and 5-0-1 ATS as a home underdog. Pittsburgh has won four straight games outright as a home underdog (2-0 this season).
Mike Tomlin is 41-23-1 ATS in his career as an underdog (34-32 SU). He is 12-4-1 ATS as a home underdog (10-6 outright).
Tennessee road games are 5-1 to the over this season. Ryan Tannehill games are 28-10-1 to the over with Tennessee.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5), Sunday at 1 ET
Jacksonville games are 11-2 to the under this season, the highest under percentage in the NFL. One of the two games that went over was Week 1 against Houston.
Jacksonville is 2-8 outright in its last 10 games as a favorite, including 0-2 in the last two seasons. The only other time this season Jacksonville was favored this season, it lost outright to Houston in Week 1.
Jacksonville is 4-9 ATS this season, tied for second-worst in the NFL. Houston is 5-8 ATS.
Houston is 0-7 outright and 2-5 ATS with Davis Mills starting at quarterback.
Arizona Cardinals (-13.5) at Detroit Lions, Sunday at 1 ET
Favorites of at least 3.5 points were 9-0 ATS last week and are 17-2 ATS in the last two weeks.
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Detroit is 8-5 ATS this season and 7-2 ATS when getting at least four points.
Arizona is 9-4 ATS this season.
The only time Arizona has laid at least 14 points on the road in the Super Bowl era was back in Week 9 of 1966 (-14.5 at New York Giants). Arizona is 2-9 ATS all-time as at least a nine-point road favorite (last game came in 2015). 13.5 points would tie their largest road spread since the 1970 merger.
In the last 10 seasons, teams .500 or below cover 55.1% of the time against teams below .500 in December/January games including going 48-32 ATS in the last three seasons (60%). Last week, they were 9-3 ATS.
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-9), Sunday at 4:05 ET
San Francisco is 1-9 outright and ATS as a home favorite since the start of last season. It did win and cover in its last instance (Week 12 vs Minnesota). Shanahan is 4-16-2 ATS as a home favorite (9-13 outright).
Kyle Shanahan is 1-6-1 ATS when laying at least 8 points (5-3 outright).
San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last five games.
Atlanta is 0-4 outright and ATS against teams with winning records this season.
Atlanta is 5-1 outright and ATS in its last six road games, including 3-1 outright and ATS as a road underdog.
In the last 10 seasons, teams .500 or below cover 55.1% of the time against teams below .500 in December/January games including going 48-32 ATS in the last 3 seasons (60%). Last week, they were 9-3 ATS.
Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-2.5), Sunday at 4:05 ET
Home favorites of under a field goal are 6-14 outright and ATS this season.
Denver games are 10-3 to the under this season, including 6-1 in games when Denver covers and 5-0 against teams with winning records.
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.
Teddy Bridgewater is 42-20 ATS in his career.
Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 4:25 ET
Green Bay is 11-2 ATS this season, the best mark in the NFL. That is tied with 2008 Tennessee, 1999 St. Louis, 1982 Washington and 1975 Houston for the best mark through 13 games since the 1970 merger. The only teams since the merger to start 12-2 ATS are 1999 St. Louis and 1975 Houston.
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Green Bay is 5-0 ATS against teams with winning records.
John Harbaugh is 10-6 ATS and 9-7 outright as a home underdog, including 9-3 ATS and 8-4 outright in his last 12 games. Baltimore is 1-0 outright as a home underdog this season.
Lamar Jackson is 9-1 ATS and 7-3 outright in his career as an underdog. Tyler Huntley is 1-0 ATS in his career as a starter.
Since drafting Lamar Jackson in 2018, Baltimore is 14-4 ATS in December/January regular season games.
Baltimore is 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11), Sunday at 8:20 ET
Sean Payton is 43-25-1 ATS as an underdog, though New Orleans has failed to cover in each of the past three instances.
New Orleans has never been a double-digit underdog under Sean Payton. The last time New Orleans was a double-digit underdog was Week 17 of 2015 against Tampa Bay (+13.5), the last game before hiring Payton.
Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season. Tampa Bay is also 5-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Tampa Bay has covered four straight games, all as a favorite.
New Orleans has covered the last six regular-season meetings including winning outright as a home underdog in Week 8.
This is the eighth time Tampa Bay is a double-digit betting favorite since acquiring Tom Brady last season. They had eight such games in franchise history before acquiring Brady.
Favorites of at least 3.5 points were 9-0 ATS last week and are 17-2 ATS in the last two weeks.
Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) at Cleveland Browns, Monday at 5 ET
This line opened with Cleveland as a 6.5-point favorite.
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Cleveland is 0-4 ATS in its last four games.
Cleveland is 0-3 ATS as a home underdog in the last three seasons (first time as home underdog this season).
Las Vegas is 1-5 ATS in its last six games.
Derek Carr is 5-9-1 ATS as a road favorite and 8-7 outright. (lost at New York Giants in Week 9). In the seven losses, the under is 7-0, and in the eight wins, the over is 6-2.
The over is 68-53-2 in Derek Carr‘s career, including 37-21 when he covers the spread.
The lowest total in any game this season is 39 (New England at Houston). The total in this game as of Wednesday evening is 38.5, which would be the lowest since last season’s New Orleans-Denver game when Denver did not have a quarterback available.
In the last 10 seasons, teams .500 or below cover 55.1% of the time against teams below .500 in December/January games including going 48-32 ATS in the last three seasons (60%). Last week, they were 9-3 ATS.
Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) at Chicago Bears, Monday at 8 ET on ESPN
Kirk Cousins is 1-9 outright and ATS on Monday Night Football. The lone win came last season in Week 10, also at Chicago (won by six as three-point favorite).
Chicago is 0-4 ATS as a home underdog this season and 2-8 ATS overall as an underdog.
Home underdogs on Monday Night Football are 5-0 ATS this season.
Chicago has failed to cover four straight games.
Favorites of at least 3.5 points were 9-0 ATS last week and are 17-2 ATS in the last two weeks.
In the last 10 seasons, teams .500 or below cover 55.1% of the time against teams below .500 in December/January games including going 48-32 ATS in the last three seasons (60%). Last week, they were 9-3 ATS.
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-4.5), Tuesday at 7 ET
Los Angeles opened as a seven-point favorite before moving to five on Tuesday.
Los Angeles has covered five of the last six meetings.
Los Angeles is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games.
Seattle is 9-4-1 ATS as a road underdog since 2018 including 2-1 ATS this season.
Seattle has gone over the total in back-to-back games after starting the season 9-1-1 to the under.
Underdogs in NFC West games are 7-2 ATS and outright this season.
Favorites of at least 3.5 points were 9-0 ATS last week and are 17-2 ATS in the last two weeks.
In the last 10 seasons, teams .500 or below cover 55.1% of the time against teams below .500 in December/January games including going 48-32 ATS in the last three seasons (60%). Last week, they were 9-3 ATS.
Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles (-7), Tuesday at 7 ET
This line opened with Philadelphia as a three-point favorite.
Philadelphia is 0-3 ATS in its last three games following a bye week.
Washington has gone under the total in seven of its last eight games.
Philadelphia is 5-12 ATS as a home favorite since 2018 (1-0 this season).
Washington is 8-18 ATS in division games in the last five seasons, including 0-2 ATS this season.
Favorites of at least 3.5 points were 9-0 ATS last week and are 17-2 ATS in the last 2 weeks.