NFL Week 12 picks, schedule, odds, injuries, fantasy tips
Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, and our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Analytics writer Seth Walder picks out each matchup’s biggest X factor, and fantasy analyst Eric Moody hands out helpful fantasy football intel. Finally, Walder and Moody give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into the full post-Thanksgiving Week 12 slate, including a Dolphins-Jets matchup on Friday, Trevor Lawrence vs. C.J. Stroud, a Bills road trip to Philadelphia and a big AFC matchup between the Ravens and Chargers on Sunday night. It all culminates with a “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Bears and the Vikings on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)
Friday, 3 p.m. ET | Prime Video | Spread: MIA -7.5 (41.5)
Storyline to watch: The first Friday after Thanksgiving game in NFL history features the league’s most explosive offense … and its most helpless offense. The Dolphins are averaging a league-high 30.5 points per game; they have scored more touchdowns in one game (10) than the Jets’ offense has produced for the entire season (nine). The Jets are hoping that journeyman quarterback Tim Boyle, who replaces the benched Zach Wilson, can provide a spark. — Rich Cimini
Bold prediction: The Jets have not allowed a 300-yard passer all season — but that will end Friday in Tua Tagovailoa‘s first game against the division rival since the 2021 season. Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill will also eclipse 100 receiving yards after failing to do so in either contest against New York last season. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Stat to know: The Jets’ 22.9% third-down conversion rate this season is on pace to be the worst by a team since the 1970 merger (1970 Patriots were at 23.1%). And their 26.1% red zone TD percentage is on pace to be the second-worst rate in the past 45 seasons behind the 1997 Chargers (25.0%).
Matchup X factor: Boyle. He’s taking over as the Jets’ QB1 and has a career 29 QBR. The Jets need to win some games to stay in the playoff race long enough for Aaron Rodgers to potentially come back, and on Friday that will probably require the game of Boyle’s life. — Walder
Injuries: Dolphins | Jets
What to know for fantasy: The Jets’ defense gives up the ninth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. It’s a great opportunity for the Dolphins’ running game, which ranks second with 143.0 rushing yards per game, to shine. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Jets are 0-4 against the spread (ATS) in games on short rest under coach Robert Saleh. And they are 0-7 ATS in their past seven games in that role. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Dolphins 28, Jets 13
Walder’s pick: Dolphins 30, Jets 9
FPI prediction: MIA, 76.4% (by an average of 9.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: How the Dolphins’ Mike McDaniel keeps things authentic … Greatest gadget play ever? Dan Marino’s fake spike turns 29 … Dolphins hold RB Achane out after early hit to knee … Jets bench Wilson, to start Boyle at QB vs. Dolphins
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: JAX -1 (46.5)
Storyline to watch: If the Texans win this game, they would tie the Jaguars atop the AFC South and would have the tie-breaker. One key element to this showdown is how Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence will perform. Lawrence has struggled against the Texans, going 1-4 in his career with seven interceptions to four touchdown passes. The Jaguars’ struggles against the Texans go beyond Lawrence, though, as Houston has dominated Jacksonville, winning 16 out of their past 19 games. — DJ Bien-Aime
Bold prediction: The Texans and Jaguars will combine for more than 800 yards of offense. The Texans have averaged 486.3 yards per game in their past three games, and while the Jaguars haven’t been that explosive, they did put up a 404 yards in the first meeting. Houston rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud hasn’t thrown for fewer than 336 yards in the team’s three-game winning streak, while Lawrence is coming off his best game of the season (262 passing yards, 2 passing TDs, 2 rushing TDs against the Titans). — Mike DiRocco
Stat to know: We have a big strength-on-strength matchup here with Stroud against the Jaguars’ zone coverage. Jacksonville plays zone at the fifth-highest rate (67%) and has allowed the fourth-lowest QBR in those looks. But Stroud has the best QBR in the league against zone coverage this season.
Matchup X factor: Texans wide receiver Tank Dell. He has emerged as a real difference-maker, and his early-season open score — he ranked sixth best in the metric entering Week 11 — has paid off in production. Dell has 22 catches for 319 yards over his past three games. — Walder
Injuries: Jaguars | Texans
What to know for fantasy: Stroud and Dell have connected for 659 yards this season. This is the most by any rookie quarterback-rookie receiver tandem in the first 10 games of a season in league history. The Jaguars’ defense gives up the ninth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Texans have covered four of the past five meetings. Since 2018, the Texans are 10-1 outright and 8-3 ATS against the Jaguars. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Texans 28, Jaguars 25
Walder’s pick: Jaguars 23, Texans 22
FPI prediction: JAX, 57.2% (by an average of 2.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Jaguars ‘in a great spot’ after Lawrence leads victory … RB Singletary has been game-changer for Texans
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: ATL -1 (42.5)
Storyline to watch: The records are ugly, but first place in the NFC South entering December will be on the line Sunday afternoon. There’s still a lot of football to go — the teams will meet again in New Orleans in the regular-season finale — but this game could be a turning point with the Falcons going back to Desmond Ridder at quarterback after losing three straight games and New Orleans winning two of its past three. That’s just life in the NFL’s most unpredictable division the past two seasons, where it’s entirely possible the division winner will end up with an under-.500 record for the second straight year. Last season, Tampa Bay won the division at 8-9. — Michael Rothstein
Bold prediction: The Saints’ defense will force at least two turnovers from Ridder. The Saints broke their streak of forcing a turnover in every game in their loss to the Vikings prior to the bye, but they’ll start a new streak with the Falcons switching back to Ridder this week. Ridder has fumbled seven times this season and has had two multi-interception games. With Marshon Lattimore out, Alontae Taylor will get his first career interception as one of those turnovers. — Katherine Terrell
Stat to know: Saints running back Alvin Kamara is the only running back with 50 receptions this season. He has four seasons with 60-plus receptions, tied with Christian McCaffrey for the most among active RBs. And he would become the fourth back with five 60-reception seasons since 1990.
Matchup X factor: Ridder. The Saints are too good defending the run — they rank first in EPA allowed per designed carry — for Atlanta to get by without Ridder excelling in the pass game. — Walder
Injuries: Saints | Falcons
What to know for fantasy: The Saints’ defense allows the eighth-fewest opponent passing yards per game. Ridder has averaged 12.2 fantasy points per game as a starter so far in his career. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: All six times the Saints have faced a team that currently has a losing record, the game went under the total. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Saints 24, Falcons 20
Walder’s pick: Saints 22, Falcons 19
FPI prediction: NO, 56.7% (by an average of 2.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Saints place WR Thomas on IR with knee injury … Falcons going back to Ridder for rest of season
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: PIT -1 (34.5)
Storyline to watch: Both teams enter Sunday’s game looking for their offensive identity. The Bengals are adjusting to Jake Browning as their starting quarterback after Joe Burrow‘s season-ending wrist injury. The Steelers fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada on Tuesday after the team ranked 28th in the NFL in offensive points per game (15.0). — Ben Baby
Bold prediction: Steelers QB Kenny Pickett will have multiple passing touchdowns for the second time in his career. Changing offensive coordinators sometimes has a way of jumpstarting an offense. With quarterbacks coach Mike Sullivan, who is close with Pickett, calling plays, Pickett has an opportunity to show he can be an NFL quarterback against a Bengals team that ranks near the bottom of the league in passing defense, allowing 284.3 yards per game through the air in its past three outings. — Brooke Pryor
Stat to know: The Steelers are 6-4 this season despite being outgained in every single game. They are the 20th team to be outgained in each of the first 10 games of the season, and they are the only one to do so with a winning record.
Matchup X factor: Cincinnati’s run defense. With Burrow out for the season neither team should be able to have much success on offense. The bad news for the Bengals: Their run defense has been porous, ranking 29th in EPA allowed per designed carry. — Walder
Injuries: Steelers | Bengals
What to know for fantasy: Pittsburgh ranks 28th in points per game, 28th in total yards per game (280.1) and 31st in passing yards per game (170). Pickett has averaged 9.9 fantasy points per game this season. Bryce Young (10.8), Zach Wilson (10.2) and Desmond Ridder (12.2) have higher per-game averages. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bengals are 0-3 outright and ATS in division games this season. And they are 1-5 outright and ATS in conference games. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Bengals 21, Steelers 16
Walder’s pick: Steelers 23, Bengals 16
FPI prediction: PIT, 51.2% (by an average of 0.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: What could Matt Canada’s firing change about the Steelers’ offense? … Burrow out for season with wrist injury … The case for and against the Bengals still making the playoffs
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: IND -2 (42.5)
Storyline to watch: The matchup of the Colts’ struggling run defense versus the Buccaneers’ anemic rushing offense presents an interesting situation. Indianapolis, in the absence of suspended standout nose tackle Grover Stewart, has allowed an average of 154 rushing yards in its past four games. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, ranks last in rushing yards (769) and yards per carry (3.1), putting more stress on quarterback Baker Mayfield and the passing game. Will one of these teams break their long-running trends? — Stephen Holder
Bold prediction: The Buccaneers will have a 100-yard rusher in running back Rachaad White for the first time since his Week 10 performance against the Seahawks last year. In their past four games, the Colts have surrendered more rushing yards than any team in the league. White’s season high has been 73 yards against the Bears and the Texans. — Jenna Laine
Stat to know: Colts running back Jonathan Taylor has gone 10 straight games without going over 100 rushing yards, the longest streak of his career. His last 100-yard game was in Week 10 of last season.
Matchup X factor: Buccaneers left guards Matt Feiler or Aaron Stinnie. The Colts have a sneaky-decent pass rush, led by DeForest Buckner, who ranks fifth with a 17% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle. He’ll mostly line up opposite the left guard spot, which Stinnie has been playing in Feiler’s stead while the latter has been out because of a knee injury. Either way, they have both been solid with identical 92% pass block win rates (just over average), but Buckner presents a tough challenge. — Walder
Injuries: Buccaneers | Colts
What to know for fantasy: Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. has averaged 9.8 targets, 72 receiving yards and 15.8 fantasy points per game over his past six games. He faces a Buccaneers defense in Week 12 that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Buccaneers are 5-0 ATS on the road this season, all as underdogs. Unders are 4-1 in those games. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Colts 23, Buccaneers 20
Walder’s pick: Buccaneers 26, Colts 20
FPI prediction: IND, 54.6% (by an average of 1.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: Bucs hope ‘small things’ don’t hold them back from playoffs … Colts waive All-Pro LB Leonard in surprise move
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: NE -3.5 (33.5)
Storyline to watch: This is a matchup of the league’s two lowest-scoring teams, with the Giants (13.5 points per game) holding up the rear ahead of the Patriots (14.1 points per game) even after a 31-point outburst vs. Washington. Giants coach Brian Daboll insisted that undrafted rookie quarterback Tommy DeVito is “improving.” — Jordan Raanan
Bold prediction: The Patriots will score 20 or more points for just the third time this season. That is due, in part, to the Giants ranking 28th in the NFL in points allowed per game (25.9). It has been a struggle offensively for New England, but one of the silver linings in recent weeks has been the rushing attack, and that’s an area where the Giants have shown vulnerability (opponents averaging 135.1 yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry). — Mike Reiss
Stat to know: Giants edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux had two sacks last week against the Commanders, bringing his total to 10.5 on the season. He’s the first Giants player with 10-plus sacks within the team’s first 11 games since Jason Pierre-Paul had 10.5 through 11 games in 2011.
Matchup X factor: Patriots starting quarterback, whoever that may be. They have to get something going in the passing game. As long as they do, the Patriots should win this game with DeVito quarterbacking the other side (I know what happened against the Commanders, but still). — Walder
Injuries: Patriots | Giants
What to know for fantasy: Patriots WR Demario Douglas has been targeted 16 times over the past two games, and he will play a key role for the Patriots coming out of the bye against the Giants. New York gives up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Patriots are 2-8 ATS, tied with the Falcons for worst in the NFL. They are 1-6 ATS in their past seven games. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Patriots 21, Giants 20
Walder’s pick: Patriots 23, Giants 13
FPI prediction: NE, 72.7% (by an average of 8.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: O’Brien hints practice will be guide for QB call
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: TEN -3.5 (37.5)
Storyline to watch: This game will be a battle of rookie quarterbacks. Bryce Young and the Panthers’ offense are facing a Tennessee defense that is giving up 230 passing yards per game. Titans quarterback Will Levis will have a tougher task with Carolina’s sixth-ranked pass defense (179 yards per game). This matchup will come down to which of the young quarterbacks outshines the other. — Turron Davenport
Bold prediction: Second-round draft pick Levis will throw for more than 250 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions, and No. 1 overall pick Young will again struggle to reach 200 yards passing. Levis — who has 857 passing yards and six passing TDs through four career starts — would be the fourth QB in Titans franchise history with at least eight TD throws and 1,000 passing yards through five career starts. — David Newton
Stat to know: Titans running back Derrick Henry has four rushing touchdowns this season, his fewest through 10 team games since 2018. He is averaging 66.3 rushing yards per game after averaging at least 95 in each of the previous four seasons.
Matchup X factor: The Panthers’ offensive line. Carolina had the worst pass block win rate in Week 11, and Ikem Ekwonu ranks last in the metric among tackles over the past four weeks. Young isn’t playing well, but the line isn’t helping. — Walder
Injuries: Panthers | Titans
What to know for fantasy: In his past two games, Henry has scored a total of 8.4 fantasy points. The Broncos are the only other team to give up more fantasy points per game than the Panthers. The matchup is perfect for the Titans running back to bounce back, but can he take advantage? See Week 12 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Four straight Panthers games have gone under the total. Also, they are one of two teams to be underdogs in every game entering this week (Cardinals). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Titans 21, Panthers 13
Walder’s pick: Panthers 20, Titans 17
FPI prediction: TEN, 61.5% (by an average of 3.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: A sign of promise amid Panthers’ loss to Cowboys? … Titans, Vrabel left searching for answers as losses pile up
4:05 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: DEN -1.5 (34.5)
Storyline to watch: The Broncos are on a four-game win streak, but the offense can’t seem to find a rhythm even though quarterback Russell Wilson has played winning football. Wilson is tied for third in touchdown passes (19) and leads the league in both winning drives and fourth-quarter comebacks. But recapturing that rhythm and keeping Wilson out of harm’s way will be a tall order, given the Browns’ Myles Garrett leads the league in sacks (13) and Cleveland sacks opposing quarterbacks on an NFL-most 12.5% of pass attempts. The Browns are also tops in the league in total defense and pass defense as well as sixth in scoring defense. — Jeff Legwold
Bold prediction: Cleveland will win another game with another last-second drive in Denver. The Browns will then have a franchise-record four victories this season off a winning drive in the final two minutes of regulation. — Jake Trotter
Stat to know: Broncos receiver Courtland Sutton has five straight games with a receiving touchdown, the longest streak by a Broncos player since 2014 (Julius Thomas, five straight) and one shy of tying the longest streak in Broncos history (done five previous times, most recently by Wes Welker in 2013).
Matchup X factor: Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II. If Surtain can contain WR Amari Cooper, that hurts an already diminished Browns offense without Deshaun Watson. — Walder
Injuries: Browns | Broncos
What to know for fantasy: The Browns’ defense gives up only 0.9 passing touchdowns per game. When it comes to Wilson and the Broncos’ pass-catchers, temper your expectations. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: All four Browns road games have gone over the total this season, but five straight Broncos games have gone under. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Browns 27, Broncos 24
Walder’s pick: Browns 19, Broncos 16
FPI prediction: CLE, 52.4% (by an average of 0.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: How Thompson-Robinson kept Browns’ season on track … Sutton surging at the right time for Denver … Thompson-Robinson to remain Browns’ starting QB
4:05 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: EVEN (44.5)
Storyline to watch: Both quarterbacks — Arizona’s Kyler Murray and Los Angeles’ Matthew Stafford — are out to prove something. Stafford has struggled, throwing nine touchdowns against eight interceptions. Murray, on the other hand, will be playing his third game since returning from ACL surgery and is trying to find a consistent rhythm and another win. — Josh Weinfuss
Bold prediction: Rams WR Puka Nacua will have seven catches for 150 yards. Nacua’s worst game of the season came in Week 6 against the Cardinals, when he had four catches for 26 yards. But if WR Cooper Kupp (sprained right ankle) does not play, expect Nacua to be the focus, especially against a Cardinals defense that ranks 29th in pass DVOA. — Sarah Barshop
Stat to know: The Rams are averaging 19.5 PPG through 10 games this season (their second-lowest mark through 10 games since Sean McVay took over in 2017) and have scored 20 or fewer points in four straight games. A fifth straight under-20-point performance would tie for the longest streak under McVay, which was set in Weeks 8-12 last season.
Matchup X factor: Cardinals guards Will Hernandez and Carter O’Donnell. They’ll be tasked with stopping Aaron Donald, but there are some promising signs here: Hernandez ranks seventh in pass block win rate (95%) among guards, and in limited work O’Donnell has had a 94% pass block win rate, right in the same ballpark. — Walder
Injuries: Rams | Cardinals
What to know for fantasy: The Cardinals defense that gives up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Rams are 12-2 ATS against the Cardinals under coach Sean McVay, including the playoffs (11-2 ATS in regular season). But they are also 0-4 ATS in their past four games. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Rams 20, Cardinals 17
Walder’s pick: Cardinals 27, Rams 24
FPI prediction: LAR, 65.9% (by an average of 5.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Rams’ young defense is helping keep L.A. in games … Murray: Cardinals’ offense ‘let the team down’
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: KC -8.5 (42.5)
Storyline to watch: The personal in-game battle between Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and Raiders edge rusher Maxx Crosby is one to watch. Since Crosby entered the league in 2019, the Chiefs have won seven of eight meetings against the Raiders and Mahomes has thrown for 2,464 yards with 21 TDs and just 2 INTs in those games. But three of Crosby’s four sacks and three of his nine QB hits against Mahomes came last season. — Paul Gutierrez
Bold prediction: The Chiefs will play a fourth straight second half without scoring a point. Between penalties, dropped passes and turnovers, they’ve shown no signs of resolving any of their many issues. Meanwhile, the Raiders have allowed an average of 13 points per game since making their coaching change, so they’re capable of giving the struggling Chiefs plenty of problems. — Adam Teicher
Stat to know: Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce has 11 career touchdown catches against the Raiders, his most against any team. Only Antonio Gates (13) and Steve Largent (12) have more against the Raiders, and the only active player with more TD catches against any single opponent is Davante Adams (13 against the Vikings).
Matchup X factor: Chiefs cornerback L’Jarius Sneed. Last week, he traveled with A.J. Brown, so there’s a decent chance he’ll do the same for Adams. If so, that could be tough news for the Raiders: Sneed is allowing just 1.0 yards per coverage snap, per NFL Next Gen Stats (better than average for outside corners), and Brown finished last week’s game against the Chiefs with just one catch. — Walder
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Injuries: Chiefs | Raiders
What to know for fantasy: Mahomes’ wide receivers are dropping 9.2% of passes. In the past 10 seasons, this is the highest rate for any quarterback through 10 games. Even though the Raiders’ secondary is far from elite, Las Vegas has allowed the 13th-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Raiders are 3-0 ATS under interim coach Antonio Pierce. The Chiefs are 13-7 ATS against the Raiders under coach Andy Reid (17-3 outright). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Chiefs 24, Raiders 16
Walder’s pick: Chiefs 27, Raiders 13
FPI prediction: KC, 85.6% (by an average of 14.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Raiders trying to juggle O’Connell’s growing pains
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: PHI -3.5 (48.5)
Storyline to watch: The Bills are averaging more yards per game than the Eagles and have a plus-104 point differential compared to plus-61 for Philly. But Buffalo has five more giveaways on the season and has lost all of its games by six points or fewer, while the Eagles have found a way to win the close ones. — Tim McManus
Bold prediction: Josh Allen‘s interception streak will come to an end. Despite facing the team with the best record on the road, Allen’s career-high seven-game stretch with at least one interception in each game will come to a close. The offense and Allen’s confidence took a big step in the right direction against the Jets, and that will continue in this big game. Plus, while the Eagles’ defense has plenty to give the Bills a tough day, it has recorded only five interceptions this season, tied for the second fewest in the NFL. — Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: Allen has seven games with a passing and rushing TD this season, while Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts has six. Only four QBs have ever had eight such games in a season, and the record is nine (Kyler Murray in 2020).
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Matchup X factor: Bills cornerback Rasul Douglas. He has provided a badly needed boost for the banged-up Bills defense and has allowed just 0.8 yards per coverage snap and recorded two interceptions in his three games with Buffalo. — Walder
Injuries: Bills | Eagles
What to know for fantasy: The Eagles’ running game holds a significant advantage with D’Andre Swift against a Bills defensive front that ranks 16th in run stop win rate. Swift has averaged 18.0 touches and 14.9 fantasy points per game this season. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bills’ Allen is 11-5-1 ATS as a road underdog in his career. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Eagles 28, Bills 21
Walder’s pick: Bills 28, Eagles 24
FPI prediction: BUF, 55.9% (by an average of 2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Bills’ Kincaid emerging as go-to playmaker for Allen … Eagles unsatisfied after winning Super Bowl rematch vs. Chiefs
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC | Spread: BAL -4 (46.5)
Storyline to watch: This a matchup between arguably the NFL’s best and worst defense. The Chargers are the worst team in the NFL against the pass, allowing 291.6 yards per game, second worst in total yards allowed per game (393.6) and completions allowed per game (26.5). Meanwhile, Baltimore ranks in the top three in multiple defensive categories: points per game (16.1), passing yards per game (169.7) and total yards per game (273.5). The last time the Ravens faced the Chargers was in 2021, coach Brandon Staley’s first season. Baltimore won 34-6. — Kris Rhim
Bold prediction: Ravens rookie wide receiver Zay Flowers will have his first 100-yard receiving game. Flowers, Baltimore’s No. 1 target, has not surpassed 78 yards receiving in a game this season but should get even more opportunities after Mark Andrews‘ likely season-ending ankle injury. The Chargers have allowed five wide receivers to record at least 80 yards receiving in the past six games: Amon-Ra St. Brown (156 yards), CeeDee Lamb (117), Dontayvion Wicks (91), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (84) and Garrett Wilson (80). — Jamison Hensley
Stat to know: Both Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert have excelled outside the pocket and off play-action, ranking top five in QBR in both. But while the Ravens’ defense ranks top five in opponent QBR in both areas, the Chargers’ D is in the bottom two, including worst in opponent QBR outside the pocket.
Matchup X factor: Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely. He’s filling some large shoes with Andrews out, but he’s stepping in against a team that has trouble stopping the pass, so he could produce right away. — Walder
Injuries: Ravens | Chargers
What to know for fantasy: Jackson faces a Chargers defense that has given up the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Jackson has averaged 18.4 fantasy points per game on the road this season, and the Chargers’ defense allows wide receivers to score the second-most fantasy points per game. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Seven of the past eight Chargers games have gone under the total, yet four of the past five Ravens games have gone over the total. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Ravens 27, Chargers 23
Walder’s pick: Ravens 38, Chargers 23
FPI prediction: BAL, 55.7% (by an average of 2 points)
Matchup must-reads: John Harbaugh: ‘Outside chance’ Andrews returns this season … Chargers’ Bosa (foot) likely headed to IR, Staley says … Ravens’ Jackson proving resilient heading into home stretch
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | Spread: MIN -3.5 (43.5)
Storyline to watch: This game could turn on whether the Vikings’ defense can contain the running of quarterback Justin Fields, who rushed for 46 yards on eight carries on 35 total snaps in the teams’ Week 6 matchup before he departed because of a dislocated finger. The Vikings have played exceptionally well on defense over the past two months, but they have the NFL’s sixth-worst success rate against quarterback runs (35%). — Kevin Seifert
Bold prediction: The Vikings will extend their win streak over their NFC North opponent to six, the second-most consecutive wins they’ve had over the Bears in franchise history (eight from 1972 to 76), with their third one-score victory in their past four games. Joshua Dobbs will lead Minnesota from behind in the final two minutes of the game and hit tight end Josh Oliver for the winning touchdown. — Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: Minnesota’s T.J. Hockenson leads all tight ends in catches (75) and receiving yards (736). He needs nine more receptions for the most in a season by a Vikings tight end (Kyle Rudolph had 83 in 2016).
Matchup X factor: Bears cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson and Tyrique Stevenson. Johnson has the third-lowest yards per coverage snap allowed (0.9) among outside corners, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and while Stevenson has struggled for most of this year, he’s coming off a very strong Week 11. Perhaps they can shut down this Dobbs-led Vikings passing attack. — Walder
Injuries: Bears | Vikings
What to know for fantasy: The Bears’ defense gives up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends — that’s good news for Hockenson. See Week 12 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Vikings are 5-0 outright and 4-1 ATS against the Bears since 2021. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Vikings 27, Bears 19
Walder’s pick: Vikings 24, Bears 22
FPI prediction: MIN, 61.6% (by an average of 4 points)
Matchup must-reads: Bears’ Fields excels in return from injury … Jefferson: My health more important than fantasy football