NFL Week 12 betting notes: Dolphins, Tua impress at home
The Cowboys hope to continue a trend of big favorites covering on Thanksgiving. Since 1995, teams favored by at least 7 points are 22-5 ATS on Turkey Day.
The Los Angeles Rams (2-7-1 ATS) are off to the worst 10-game ATS start by a reigning Super Bowl champion since 1997. With Matthew Stafford officially ruled out, the Rams are the first reigning champions to be at least 14-point underdogs. Two prior reigning champions closed as 13.5-point underdogs. Both won outright.
While the Rams are rare underdogs, a couple of other teams are in new favorite roles. The Miami Dolphins are in their biggest favorite role since 2003, also against the Houston Texans. Miami, which lost back in 2003, hopes to avoid a loss on Sunday. Meanwhile, the New York Jets are in their largest favorite role since 2018 as they host the Chicago Bears.
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Home teams: 5-8-1 ATS (76-82-6 ATS this season)
Favorites: 7-6-1 ATS (68-87-6 ATS this season)
Favorites: have not had week over .500 this season
Overs: 8-6 (94-68-2 this season)
Best team ATS: Tennessee (8-2); eight straight covers
Worst team ATS: Los Angeles Rams (2-7-1)
Best over team: Cleveland (7-2-1)
Notable title odds moves
Dallas: 14-1 to 10-1
Cincinnati: 30-1 to 25-1
Tennessee: 35-1 to 28-1
Minnesota: 11-1 to 16-1
Los Angeles Chargers: 35-1 to 45-1
New York Giants: 60-1 to 80-1
New York Jets: 60-1 to 100-1
Green Bay: 80-1 to 125-1
Dan Campbell is 17-10 ATS as Detroit head coach, including 13-4 ATS as an underdog of at least four points and 7-0 ATS as a home underdog of at least four points (4-3 SU).
All five Buffalo road games have gone under the total this season.
Detroit has won and covered three straight games.
Since 2004, Detroit is 3-11 ATS and 0-14 outright as an underdog on Thanksgiving. Detroit’s last upset win on Thanksgiving happened in 2003 against Green Bay (+7).
Detroit is 0-6 ATS as an underdog of at least 7.5 points on Thanksgiving in the Super Bowl era.
Since 1995, teams favored by at least seven points on Thanksgiving are 22-5 ATS (18-4 ATS past 20 seasons; 6-1 ATS past seven instances).
The last time a team with a .700 win percentage was at least an 8-point underdog in Week 10 or later was in 2007 when New England was a 10.5-point favorite over Pittsburgh (9-3). Over the past 25 seasons, those underdogs are 0-6-1 ATS (2-11-1 ATS past 40 seasons).
Dallas has covered four straight home games (4-1 ATS this season) and is 3-0 ATS as a home favorite this season.
Dallas is 9-2 ATS against New York since 2017, with three straight covers.
Since 2020, New York is 7-0 ATS on short-rest games, all with Daniel Jones as starter.
New York is 5-1 outright and ATS as an underdog this season. The only time New York was an underdog of at least a touchdown, it won outright against Green Bay in Week 5 (+9).
Dallas is 1-10 ATS in its past 11 Thanksgiving games. Dallas has lost outright as a favorite on Thanksgiving in each of the past three seasons. The Cowboys were favored by at least 6.5 points in two of the three losses.
Since 1995, teams favored by at least seven points on Thanksgiving are 22-5 ATS (18-4 ATS past 20 seasons; 6-1 ATS past seven instances). However, last season, Dallas lost outright as a 7-point favorite on Thanksgiving against Las Vegas.
Division game unders are 32-18-1 this season.
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Since 2016, New England is 14-1 ATS on short-rest games.
Since 1990, home favorites are 27-16 ATS on Thanksgiving (15-5 ATS excluding Dallas).
New England has covered three straight games and three straight road games.
Minnesota (4-5-1 ATS) and Kansas City (4-6 ATS) are the third and fourth teams in the past 20 seasons to start 8-2 or better outright but have losing records ATS (2018 Los Angeles Rams, 2012 Baltimore). 2018 Los Angeles won its conference, while 2012 Baltimore won the championship.
Prime-time unders are 19-13-1 this season (107-79-4 past four seasons).
New York has not been a 6-point favorite since Week 10 of 2018 (lost 41-10 as 7-point favorites vs Buffalo). The last time the Jets were a 4-point favorite was in Week 14 of 2019 (won 22-21 as five-point favorites vs Miami).
New York is 3-0 ATS after a loss this season.
New York is 4-0 ATS against teams with losing records.
Five straight Chicago games have gone over the total. Five straight New York games have gone under the total.
New York has been an underdog in every home game this season. The only other team to be a home underdog in every game is Houston.
Chicago is 7-15 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season (Justin Fields: 6-12 ATS).
Cleveland is 7-2-1 to the over this season, the best over mark in the league. Tampa Bay games are 8-2 to the under (4-0 on road).
Tampa Bay is 1-6-1 ATS in its past eight games.
Tom Brady is 12-8 ATS in his career off a bye (1-1 ATS with Tampa Bay).
Tennessee has covered eight straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL. One more cover would tie the second-longest streak in the past 15 seasons, the most recent was Green Bay with nine straight in 2021. It is tied for Tennessee’s longest cover streak since the franchise moved to Tennessee in 1997 (2007-08). One more cover would match its longest streak in the Super Bowl era (9 straight in 1975 as Houston Oilers).
Tennessee is 8-2 ATS, the best mark in the league. It is 6-0 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3.
Cincinnati is 7-1 ATS since Week 3, the second-best mark in the NFL in that span behind Tennessee (8-0 ATS).
Tennessee is 10-3 ATS with extra rest under Mike Vrabel (8-1 ATS since 2019).
Mike Vrabel is 9-4 outright and ATS as a home underdog.
Tennessee is 3-1 outright and 4-0 ATS in its past four games as an underdog.
Miami has not been at least an 11-point favorite since Week 1 of 2003, also against Houston (-14). Miami lost that game outright. Miami’s 314 games without being at least an 11-point favorite is the second-longest active streak in the NFL (Detroit with 425; most recently in 1996).
Tua Tagovailoa is 8-0 outright and 6-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Houston is 4-1 ATS as at least a 7-point underdog this season (2-0 ATS as double-digit underdog).
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its past five games.
This would be the 22nd straight start Davis Mills has been an underdog in to begin his career, the fifth-longest streak to begin a career in the Super Bowl era.
Washington is 5-0-1 ATS in its past six games, 4-0-1 ATS with Taylor Heinicke as starter.
Washington is 3-0 ATS as a favorite this season, all as a 1-3-point favorite. Heinicke is 4-0 outright and 3-1 ATS as a favorite in his career.
Washington is 5-1 ATS against teams with losing records this season.
Atlanta is 7-4 ATS this season. It started 6-0 ATS, went 0-4 ATS in its next four games, then covered last week against Chicago.
The over/under is currently 35.5. In the past 10 seasons, only two games have had totals below 36. In Week 17 of 2019, Minnesota-Chicago closed 35.5 and Baltimore-Pittsburgh closed 35. Both games went over the total.
Denver games are 9-1 to the under this season, the highest under percentage in the league. Denver is the first team to start 9-1 to the under since 2011, when both Miami and Jacksonville did it. Both of those teams started 10-1 to the under.
Denver is 0-4 ATS as a favorite this season.
Carolina is 4-2 ATS under Steve Wilks after going 3-16 ATS in its final 19 games under Matt Rhule.
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS on the road this season. Lamar Jackson is 19-8-2 ATS in his career on the road.
Jacksonville is 1-6 ATS in its past seven games. Jacksonville is 3-7 ATS this season, but it ranks sixth in average cover margin (+3.25).
Jacksonville is 0-4 ATS against teams with winning records this season.
Four straight Jacksonville games have gone under the total. All five Jacksonville home games have gone under the total this season. Six of Baltimore’s past seven games have gone under the total.
Each of the past three times Jacksonville was a home underdog, it won the game outright (2-0 this season).
Los Angeles is 5-0 ATS on the road this season, the only team undefeated ATS on the road this season.
Los Angeles has covered three straight games.
Kliff Kingsbury is 22-12-1 ATS as an underdog with Arizona (10-4 ATS since start of last season).
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its past five games.
This is the first time Seattle has been favored by more than a field goal this season. Geno Smith has been favored by over a field goal only twice in his career (2-0 ATS).
Derek Carr is 28-21 ATS as a road underdog, and 12-7 since 2019.
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No reigning Super Bowl champion has ever been a 14-point underdog. Three have been double-digit underdogs. The largest spread for a reigning champion is 13.5, as 2018 Philadelphia and 1995 San Francisco each had games as 13.5-point underdogs. Both won those games outright.
The last time the Rams closed as at least a 14-point underdog was in 2016 against Seattle (+15.5) when they still played in St. Louis.
Kansas City is 2-5 ATS as at least a 4-point favorite this season.
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS at home this season.
Los Angeles is 2-7-1 ATS this season, worst in the NFL. It is the worst 10-game ATS start by a reigning champion since Green Bay started 1-8-1 ATS in 1997.
Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS against teams with winning records this season.
New Orleans is 0-4 ATS on the road this season.
New Orleans is 2-5 ATS as an underdog this season (1-4 ATS in its past five games).
Kyle Shanahan is 4-7-1 ATS as at least an 8-point favorite.
Kyle Shanahan is 8-17-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS at home this season. The past four home games went over the total.
Green Bay is 12-3 ATS as an underdog under Matt LaFleur (7-1 ATS since start of last season).
Green Bay is 12-3 ATS after a loss under Matt LaFleur (3-3 ATS this season).
Aaron Rodgers is 4-1 ATS and 0-5 outright as an underdog of at least 7 points including playoffs (2-0 ATS in regular season).
Philadelphia is 0-3 ATS in its past three games.
Prime-time unders are 19-13-1 this season (107-79-4 last four seasons). “Sunday Night Football” unders are 8-3 this season (37-24-2 over the past four seasons).
Indianapolis games are 9-2 to the under this season.
Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS as a favorite this season.
Mike Tomlin is 46-28-3 ATS as an underdog (3-4-1 ATS this season).
Jeff Saturday seeks to join Jason Garrett as the only coaches in the past 30 seasons to cover each of their first three career games as a head coach after taking over the job midseason (Garrett started 5-0 ATS in 2010 with Dallas).
Prime-time unders are 19-13-1 this season (107-79-4 past four seasons).