NFL Week 11 picks, schedule, odds, injuries, fantasy tips
The Week 11 NFL schedule for the 2023 season is stacked with great matchups, and we have you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game and a bold prediction for each matchup.
Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, and our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Analytics writer Seth Walder picks out each matchup’s biggest X factor, and fantasy analyst Eric Moody hands out helpful fantasy football intel. Finally, Walder and Moody give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into the full Week 11 slate, including the surging Raiders visiting the Dolphins, the Jets taking on the Bills and a showdown between the Seahawks and Rams. It all culminates with a “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Eagles and the Chiefs on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: CLE -1 (32.5)
Storyline to watch: Cleveland’s Myles Garrett is tied for first in the NFL with 11 sacks, while Pittsburgh’s T.J. Watt is just behind him with 10.5. Garrett and Watt have been as impactful as any defensive players in the league this season, and their meeting could have a bearing on the Defensive Player of the Year conversation. — Jake Trotter
Bold prediction: Each team will run for over 200 yards. The Steelers’ ground game had its first 200-yard game of the season a week ago behind a balanced attack of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. Meanwhile, the Browns — already the No. 2 rushing offense in the league — will rely even more on their backs after Deshaun Watson‘s season-ending shoulder injury. While the Steelers’ ground defense has been playing better with the return of Cameron Heyward, losing two key inside linebackers in Cole Holcomb (knee) and Kwon Alexander (torn Achilles) in back-to-back games figures to take a toll on that group. — Brooke Pryor
Stat to know: Amari Cooper has 715 receiving yards this season and is seeking to be the fifth different Browns receiver with at least 800 receiving yards in their first 10 games of a season.
Matchup X factor: Warren, Harris and the Steelers’ ground game. It’s Pittsburgh’s only hope to score points (on offense) against a Browns defense that ranks first in expected points added per dropback allowed. Quarterback Kenny Pickett isn’t going to beat that unit. — Walder
Injuries: Steelers | Browns
What to know for fantasy: The Browns’ defense boasts the fewest total yards allowed per game to opponents. Also, Cleveland excels at limiting fantasy point production for quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers. With how poorly Pickett has been playing this season, it would be wise to avoid starting Steelers players such as Diontae Johnson or George Pickens this week. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Steelers are 6-1 against the spread (ATS) in their past seven road games. Unders are 51-24-1 in Steelers road games in the past 10 seasons, including 3-0 this season. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Browns 24, Steelers 14
Walder’s pick: Browns 27, Steelers 9
FPI prediction: CLE, 52.8% (by an average of 1 point)
Matchup must-reads: Freiermuth tracking to play vs. Browns, sources say … Watson in ‘disbelief’ as shoulder injury ends season … Resilient Steelers defense faces mounting injury challenges … What Watson’s injury means
1 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: DET -7.5 (47.5)
Storyline to watch: The Lions are returning home to host their divisional rivals with an opportunity to hit their best 10-game mark since 1962. Bears quarterback Justin Fields will look to spoil their plans as he returns after missing the past four games with a dislocated right thumb, and he’ll look to break the Lions’ streak of six consecutive divisional victories dating back to last season — which is their longest streak since the 1970 merger. — Eric Woodyard
Bold prediction: Fields will rush for at least 70 yards — a season high — against a Lions defense that has struggled to contain running quarterbacks. He might not yet feel comfortable unleashing his deep ball just one month removed from dislocating a thumb, but the Bears quarterback can use his legs to keep drives alive, similar to the way quarterback Lamar Jackson‘s scrambling (36 rush yards, one touchdown) challenged the Lions defensively in their Week 7 loss to the Ravens. — Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: Detroit running back Jahmyr Gibbs has a rushing touchdown in three straight games. He is one shy of matching the longest streak by a Lions rookie (Kevin Jones in 2014, Barry Sanders in 1989).
Matchup X factor: Bears wide receiver DJ Moore. If Chicago is going to have a chance against Detroit, it will need some game-breaking plays. Moore, who ranks third in YAC score in our receiver tracking metrics, is the one non-QB playmaker on the offense who can deliver that. — Walder
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Injuries: Bears | Lions
What to know for fantasy: Jared Goff and the Lions’ passing game are positioned for another big performance against the Bears. This season, Chicago is allowing the 11th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Over the past two seasons, Goff has averaged 21.4 fantasy points per game at home. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Lions are 5-0 ATS against teams that currently have losing records this season. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Lions 34, Bears 17
Walder’s pick: Lions 24, Bears 17
FPI prediction: DET, 68.8% (by an average of 6.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: Bears planning on Fields starting at QB against Lions … Montgomery thriving ahead of Bears reunion … Sweat has invigorated the Bears’ defense
1 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: LAC -3 (43.5)
Storyline to watch: Justin Herbert (sixth overall) and Jordan Love (26th) were the third and fourth quarterbacks taken in the first round of the 2020 draft. Herbert has 58 starts under his belt since taking over in Week 2 of his rookie year, while Love is making just his 11th career start (and 10th this season). The Chargers were 6-9 with Herbert as the starter during his rookie year, and they’re 29-29 overall in regular-season games that he has started. Love appears headed toward a similar first-year record as a starter unless the Packers can turn things around, beginning with this game, because of what’s ahead (at Detroit on Thanksgiving, followed by a visit from the Chiefs). — Rob Demovsky
Bold prediction: Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon will combine for at least 200 yards. Jones and Dillon are among the best running back duos in the NFL, leading the Packers to over 100 yards rushing in four of their past five games. The Chargers allowed 200 rushing yards and three touchdowns to the Lions last week. Los Angeles’ defense could be in for another thrashing on the ground against Green Bay, which ranks 10th in the league in rushing yards per game over the past three games (124.7). — Kris Rhim
Stat to know: Linebacker Joey Bosa has 6.5 sacks in eight games this season. His 67.0 career sacks are the third most by a Charger since individual sacks were first tracked in 1982, trailing Shaun Phillips (69.5) and Leslie O’Neal (105.5).
Matchup X factor: Packers wide receiver Christian Watson. He hasn’t exceeded 37 receiving yards in a game since Week 5. This is an opportunity for both Love and Watson to produce against a weak Chargers defense. And they’ll have to if Green Bay is to have a chance. — Walder
Injuries: Chargers | Packers
What to know for fantasy: Starting Love in fantasy this season is not for the faint of heart, but he has a favorable matchup against the Chargers’ defense and hopefully can capitalize on it with the plethora of offensive playmakers he has at his disposal. The Commanders are the only other defense that allows more fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season. Put your Packers players in your fantasy lineups. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their past six games. And unders are 6-1 in the past seven Chargers games. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Chargers 23, Packers 20
Walder’s pick: Chargers 27, Packers 23
FPI prediction: LAC, 67% (by an average of 5.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Chargers share blame as they suffer fourth one-score loss of the season … Love still looking for a go-to pass-catcher … Staley to keep calling plays for defense
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: MIA -13.5 (46.5)
Storyline to watch: The Raiders own the NFL’s fourth-worst run defense, allowing 135.6 yards per game on the ground. While Miami’s run game has dipped a bit over its past four games, it averages 185 rushing yards per game when De’Von Achane is active — and he is slated to make his return from injured reserve Sunday. If he’s playing, it could make things interesting for an otherwise stout Raiders defense (198.7 passing yards allowed per game). — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Bold prediction: Josh Jacobs will be the first player to rush for two TDs against Miami this season. The Dolphins’ No. 13-ranked rushing defense has not given up a rushing score since Week 7 and has surrendered multiple rushing TDs in a game only three times this season. But the Raiders’ All-Pro RB is rounding into form — he is coming off his first 100-yard rushing game of the season — and the running game is a point of emphasis to keep the Dolphins’ high-flying offense off the field. — Paul Gutierrez
Stat to know: Interim coach Antonio Pierce is looking to become the second Raiders coach in the Super Bowl era to win each of his first three career games (Bill Callahan started 4-0 in 2002).
Matchup X factor: Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel. His offense is quietly a little cold. Miami ranks 20th in EPA per play on offense since Week 7. Still, the only way Miami loses is if it beats itself. The Raiders’ defense should let the Dolphins wake up a bit. — Walder
Injuries: Raiders | Dolphins
What to know for fantasy: While the Dolphins lead the league with 287.4 passing yards per game, fantasy managers shouldn’t underestimate the Raiders’ pass defense. Las Vegas has allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. The Dolphins are heavily favored in this game, and it’s worth noting that the Raiders’ defense gives up the eighth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. This suggests that Raheem Mostert and Achane could deliver epic performances. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Each of the past eight meetings has gone over the total. But Raiders games are 8-2 to the under this season, tied for the highest under percentage in the NFL (with the Giants). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Dolphins 35, Raiders 16
Walder’s pick: Dolphins 31, Raiders 16
FPI prediction: MIA, 90.5% (by an average of 17.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Raiders hope Mayer is ready to break through … Achane will impact strategy when he returns … Revitalized Jacobs key for Raiders as schedule toughens … Dolphins open window for Achane’s possible return from IR
1 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: WSH -9.5 (37.5)
Storyline to watch: The Commanders allowed six sacks in their 14-7 loss to the Giants in October, giving them a total of 40 allowed on Sam Howell — and putting him on pace for an NFL-record 97. But in the next three games combined, Washington allowed only seven sacks, a byproduct of one key lineup change (inserting Tyler Larsen at center for Nick Gates, giving the line more bulk) and Howell’s gained experience. The Giants have had only nine sacks in their other nine games combined. If they can’t get to Howell again, it could be a long day for New York. — John Keim
Bold prediction: Daron Payne will get 2.0 sacks. It’s notable because the Commanders defensive tackle has only one sack this season after 11.5 last year. But Payne had two last season against New York, and the interior of the Giants’ offensive line isn’t particularly strong. So there should be opportunities, especially with rookie Tommy DeVito often holding the ball longer than necessary at quarterback. — Jordan Raanan
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Stat to know: Giants running back Saquon Barkley has gone five straight games without a rushing touchdown, and a sixth such game would tie the second-longest drought of his career.
Matchup X factor: Howell. He has been playing well and taking fewer sacks, but he’s still a high-variance player. The Giants’ offense is nonfunctional, so the Commanders need to limit mistakes — which they should … but again, Howell is a high-variance quarterback. — Walder
Injuries: Giants | Commanders
What to know for fantasy: Washington running back Brian Robinson Jr. is coming off a 27.7 fantasy point performance in Week 10 against the Seahawks, and you can trust him against the Giants on Sunday. This season, the Giants’ defense has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to running backs and the second-most rushing touchdowns per game. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Giants are 2-7-1 ATS this season, including 1-5 ATS on the road. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Commanders 30, Giants 16
Walder’s pick: Commanders 20, Giants 12
FPI prediction: WSH, 71% (by an average of 7.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Giants downplay frustration on the sideline in loss to Cowboys … Forbes ejected after helmet-to-helmet hit … DeVito to start vs. Commanders … How Howell is shrugging off the hits in Washington
1 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: DAL -10.5 (42.5)
Storyline to watch: This is a mismatch at every level. The Cowboys rank fourth in points allowed (18.3 per game) and third in total defense (275.1 yards per game). The Panthers rank 29th in scoring (17 points per game) and 30th in total offense (275.6 yards per game), and coach Frank Reich just took the playcalling duties away from offensive coordinator Thomas Brown three games after giving them to him. So there is unrest there. Defensively, it’s almost as bad, though the Panthers have held opponents to an average of 18.7 points in the past three games. The 10.5 points Dallas is favored by might be too low. — David Newton
Bold prediction: Cowboys running back Tony Pollard will rush for more than 100 yards. That might not seem like a big deal when facing the 26th-ranked run defense in Carolina (131.9 per game), but Pollard has just one 100-yard game this season (Week 3 at Arizona). Through nine games last season, he had three 100-yard games and two more with more than 80 yards. In eight games at Carolina, Dallas has had three 100-yard rushers. Pollard would be the Cowboys’ first since Marion Barber in 2007. — Todd Archer
Stat to know: Carolina quarterback Bryce Young has been sacked 29 times this season (fourth most in the NFL). Since the 1970 merger, David Carr (49 in 2002) and Joe Burrow (32 in 2020) are the only No. 1 overall QBs to be sacked 30-plus times in their first nine career games.
Matchup X factor: Panthers slot corner Troy Hill. He’ll probably face a fair share of the scorching hot CeeDee Lamb — a tough assignment. But if the Panthers want to contend in this game, they’ll have to slow down the Cowboys’ passing attack somehow. Hill has a better-than-average 0.9 yards per coverage snap allowed this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder
Injuries: Cowboys | Panthers
What to know for fantasy: Over the past three games, Pollard has scored a total of 21.3 fantasy points. Against the Panthers’ defense, which has given up the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs, his fortunes could change. Carolina has allowed 15 touchdowns to running backs, too. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Road favorites of at least seven points are 0-8-1 ATS this season (4-5 outright). This is the second time a team has been a double-digit road favorite. In Week 3, the Cowboys lost outright as 11-point favorites in Arizona. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Cowboys 34, Panthers 13
Walder’s pick: Cowboys 26, Panthers 14
FPI prediction: DAL, 84.3% (by an average of 13.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Lamb, Prescott on an epic tear for Cowboys … Reich takes back playcalling duties … Cowboys rebound from Eagles loss with historic rout of Giants … Panthers, Young ‘frustrated’ by loss to Bears
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: JAX -7 (39.5)
Storyline to watch: This game could come down to which offensive line holds up better and protects the quarterback. Titans rookie QB Will Levis has been sacked 10 times in three games, and Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has been sacked 24 — which is three shy of his 2022 total. Denico Autry, Arden Key and Jeffery Simmons have accounted for 13 of the Titans’ 24 sacks, while Josh Allen posters”>Josh Allen and Travon Walker have accounted for 12.5 of the Jaguars’ 18. — Mike DiRocco
Bold prediction: The Titans will score a touchdown on the road. Tennessee has scored only twice in six games away from Nissan Stadium this season, and it hasn’t scored via the passing game on the road all season. That will change against the Jaguars this week. Jacksonville’s defense is giving up 21.2 points per game. — Turron Davenport
Stat to know: Titans running back Derrick Henry has four consecutive 100-yard rushing games against the Jaguars. And the Jaguars have the league’s fifth-best rushing defense this season, allowing just 86.4 yards per game.
Matchup X factor: The Jaguars’ offensive line. One way this game could go awry for Jacksonville is if it lets the Titans’ pass rush — Simmons, Key, Autry and Harold Landry III — get to Lawrence. Jacksonville ranks just 31st in pass block win rate. — Walder
Injuries: Titans | Jaguars
What to know for fantasy: The Titans give up the second-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. Tennessee has also not surrendered a touchdown to the position. Managers with Evan Engram on their rosters should have realistic expectations. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS this season as favorites with three straight covers. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Jaguars 27, Titans 20
Walder’s pick: Jaguars 23, Titans 17
FPI prediction: JAX, 70% (by an average of 7 points)
Matchup must-reads: Titans must protect rookie Levis if they want him to develop … Can ugly loss be a wake-up call for Jaguars, Lawrence?
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: HOU -4.5 (48.5)
Storyline to watch: Texans coach DeMeco Ryans is familiar with Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray from his days as the 49ers defensive coordinator from 2021 to 2022. Ryans faced Murray only once in their four potential matchups due to the former No. 1 pick being injured. But in their lone matchup in 2021, Murray led the Cardinals to a 17-10 win and had 239 yards passing with a touchdown and no turnovers. — DJ Bien-Aime
Bold prediction: Murray will pass for over 300 yards in his second game back from right ACL surgery. He will continue to build off Sunday’s impressive return to the field (249 passing yards, one rushing touchdown), taking advantage of a Texans defense that allows 246.4 passing yards per game. — Josh Weinfuss
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Stat to know: The Cardinals’ eight-game losing streak on the road has them tied with the Titans for the longest active such streak in the NFL; it’s their longest road losing streak since a run of nine straight from 2012 to ’13.
Matchup X factor: Texans cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. He was back from injury last week, and if he can play at the level expected, based on his No. 3 overall draft position in 2022, this defense will start to look pretty tough down the stretch. — Walder
Injuries: Cardinals | Texans
What to know for fantasy: C.J. Stroud has completed 64.5% of his passes of 20 or more air yards this season. He is going up against a Cardinals defense that gives up the eighth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Nico Collins, Tank Dell and Noah Brown should be in your fantasy lineups. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their past four road games (0-5 straight up, 1-4 ATS this season on road). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Texans 26, Cardinals 20
Walder’s pick: Cardinals 23, Texans 20
FPI prediction: HOU, 67.6% (by an average of 6.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Cardinals claim ex-Jets RB Carter off waivers … Stroud leads rookie rankings … Did a different Murray come back from ACL rehab?
4:05 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: SF -11.5 (41.5)
Storyline to watch: San Francisco QB Brock Purdy made his first start against the Bucs last year and now begins his second spin through the league with another game against Tampa Bay. Both of these teams have thrived in the turnover battle, as they’re tied for third in the league in turnover margin, but this game might come down to whether the Bucs can continue their defensive red zone dominance. Tampa Bay is first in the league in keeping teams out of the end zone when they get inside the 20, while the Niners are sixth in scoring in the red zone but have struggled recently, scoring touchdowns on just 40% of their red zone trips in their past three games. — Nick Wagoner
Bold prediction: QB Baker Mayfield won’t reach 200 passing yards. Mayfield hasn’t dipped below 200 since Week 3 against the Eagles, and that has happened only one other time this season. And while the Niners’ secondary may be struggling as of late, giving up a 74.3% completion rate since Week 7, they’ve given up only 120 passing yards total on throws from outside the pocket this year — fourth best in the NFL. And that’s where Mayfield thrives. — Jenna Laine
Stat to know: The 49ers are seeking their seventh 30-point game this season. It would be their most through 10 games since joining the NFL in 1950.
Matchup X factor: Buccaneers defensive tackle Vita Vea. The interior of the 49ers’ offensive line is fairly weak. That presents an opportunity for Vea to disrupt Purdy up the middle. If the Bucs are going to have any chance, they’ll need to throw Purdy off his game. — Walder
Injuries: Buccaneers | 49ers
What to know for fantasy: Mayfield has posted 16 or more fantasy points in four consecutive games, but he tends to struggle against talented defenses, as shown by his 6.8 fantasy points against the Lions in Week 6. Despite this, fantasy managers can place trust in Rachaad White in their lineups. The 49ers’ defense ranks among the top 10 in the league in targets and receptions allowed to running backs per game. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The 49ers are 13-2 ATS in their past 15 games as a home favorite (10-2 ATS at home since start of last season). Read more.
Moody’s pick: 49ers 28, Buccaneers 21
Walder’s pick: 49ers 26, Buccaneers 19
FPI prediction: SF, 81.2% (by an average of 11.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Mayfield (thumb) OK to face 49ers … Purdy after 17 NFL starts … Bucs look to take momentum into 49ers game
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: BUF -7 (39.5)
Storyline to watch: Joe Brady’s first game as interim offensive coordinator will come with quite the challenge going against a Jets defense that held Buffalo to 16 points in Week 1 and forced three QB Josh Allen posters”>Josh Allen interceptions and a fumble. How the Bills’ offense looks under Brady and going against a defense that allows the third-fewest yards per play in the league (4.6) will go a long way in determining the outcome of this game. — Alaina Getzenberg
Bold prediction: Rookie RB Israel Abanikanda, who will be active for the first time, will end the Jets’ touchdown drought with a long run. His sub-4.4 speed is the main reason he’s getting a shot, resulting in Michael Carter‘s ouster. The Jets have gone two straight games without a touchdown, one shy of the franchise record (1993 and 2022). — Rich Cimini
Stat to know: The Bills have 18 turnovers this season, tied for the second most in the NFL. Buffalo has failed to win the turnover battle in six straight games, its longest such streak since 2012 (the Bills haven’t gone seven straight without winning the turnover battle since 2003-04).
Matchup X factor: Jets cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed. Denver showed last week that shutting down receiver Stefon Diggs can be an effective strategy against the Bills, who lack a super threatening No. 2 option. In Gardner and Reed, the Jets have the corners to do it. — Walder
Injuries: Jets | Bills
What to know for fantasy: While the Jets’ secondary is formidable, New York has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game. The Bills’ offensive line ranks second in run block win rate. So don’t hesitate to get James Cook into your lineups. Also, feel confident in starting tight end Dalton Kincaid, who may be relied upon heavily against the Jets due to their stout secondary. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bills are 0-6 ATS in their past five games, 0-5 ATS in their past four games as a favorite and 0-4 ATS in their past three games at home. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Bills 22, Jets 20
Walder’s pick: Bills 23, Jets 13
FPI prediction: BUF, 79.6% (by an average of 11.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Saleh: If Rodgers says he wants to play, he’ll play … Brady’s to-do list starts with restoring Allen’s confidence … How the Jets’ offense got stuck in neutral … Allen says Dorsey would have job if Bills played better
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: SEA -1 (46.5)
Storyline to watch: Quarterback Matthew Stafford is expected to play Sunday after injuring his right thumb against the Cowboys in Week 8. The Rams’ offense managed just 187 yards in their loss to the Packers without Stafford and the team has lost three in a row. Stafford will face a Seahawks defense that is allowing 354.3 yards per game (25th in the NFL). — Sarah Barshop
Bold prediction: Boye Mafe will welcome Stafford back from his injury by sacking him at least two times. The Seahawks’ second-year outside linebacker has a sack in a franchise-record seven consecutive games. Since stats became an official statistic in 1982, only 11 players have recorded a sack in eight straight games in the same season. Mafe, who ranks fourth among edge players in pass rush win rate, will join that company Sunday. The Rams have given up 21 sacks this season. — Brady Henderson
Stat to know: Puka Nacua has 827 receiving yards this season. He needs 43 yards to pass Cooper Kupp (869) for the second most by a Rams rookie in franchise history.
Matchup X factor: Seahawks cornerback Devon Witherspoon. He plays mostly in the slot these days, and that means frequent matchups with Kupp. When Stafford is healthy, the Rams’ offense can be feisty, so Seattle’s defense will need to show up. — Walder
Injuries: Seahawks | Rams
What to know for fantasy: The Seahawks’ defense has allowed the most rushing yards per game (173.7) over the past three games. This season, Seattle has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. For Darrell Henderson Jr., this is a great matchup. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Rams have covered six straight meetings, including playoffs. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Rams 27, Seahawks 19
Walder’s pick: Seahawks 30, Rams 27
FPI prediction: LAR, 55.1% (by an average of 1.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Mafe making impressive second-year jump … Stafford feels confident ahead of return from injury … Four biggest issues the Rams must grapple with
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC | Spread: DEN -2.5 (42.5)
Storyline to watch: It’s about who keeps the momentum. Joshua Dobbs has been a lifeguard for the Vikings at quarterback since Kirk Cousins‘ season-ending injury (torn right Achilles). He has two wins in Minnesota’s current five-game win streak, he already has a game-winning drive on his brief résumé, and he has thrown three touchdown passes without an interception. The Broncos? They’re on their first three-game win streak since September 2021, including wins over the Chiefs and Bills in the past two weeks and nine takeaways in those two games — more than they had in their first seven games combined. If Denver wins the takeaway battle in this one, it could have its first four-game win streak since 2016. — Jeff Legwold
Bold prediction: The Vikings will rush for more than 146 yards. Their high mark so far was the 146 rushing yards they compiled two weeks ago at Atlanta, spurred by Dobbs’ 66 yards in scrambles. The Vikings will have their best team rushing game of the season against a Broncos defense that ranks last in the NFL in run stop win rate (26.9%) and allowed 192 yards in Week 10 to the Bills. — Kevin Seifert
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Stat to know: Denver quarterback Russell Wilson has had five games with two or more passing touchdowns and no interceptions this season. He would join Peyton Manning as only Broncos QBs with six or more games with multiple passing touchdowns and no interceptions in a season (Manning did it in three straight seasons from 2012 to ’14).
Matchup X factor: Minnesota’s defensive back blitz plays. When the Vikings send a DB in as a pass-rusher, the defense allows negative-0.14 EPA per play. That could be a key to stopping quarterback Wilson and the Broncos’ offense. — Walder
Injuries: Vikings | Broncos
What to know for fantasy: Dobbs became the first player in league history to record at least 400 passing yards, 100 rushing yards and no interceptions in his first two games with a new team. You can trust him against a Broncos defense that’s playing better but still allows the seventh-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Vikings are 4-0-1 ATS on the road this season (4-0 ATS in past four games). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Broncos 24, Vikings 20
Walder’s pick: Vikings 23, Broncos 20
FPI prediction: MIN, 57.4% (by an average of 2.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: How has the Vikings’ offense excelled without Jefferson? … What’s gone right and wrong with Broncos playcalling so far
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC | Spread: KC -2.5 (45.5)
Storyline to watch: This is the ninth time teams that played one another in the Super Bowl meet again during the following regular season, and the defending Super Bowl champions are 6-2 in such games. But it’s not wise to expect a high-scoring game like the 38-35 Super Bowl. The Chiefs are much improved defensively (second in the league in points allowed) but only middle of the pack in points scored. — Adam Teicher
Bold prediction: Quarterback Jalen Hurts will score a pair of rushing touchdowns. He has been slowed by left knee pain for several weeks and has averaged just 21 rushing yards over the past three games compared to 42 yards on average over the first six. But he has had time to rest during the bye and is facing a Chiefs unit that ranks fifth in pass defense (176 yards per game). He’ll likely have to pick up his ground production to keep the offense moving. — Tim McManus
Stat to know: Over the past two seasons, Patrick Mahomes and Hurts both rank in the top 10 in the NFL in touchdown passes, with Mahomes throwing an NFL-best 58 in that time. But Mahomes has averaged 4.4 air yards on his touchdown passes over that span, the shortest of any QB. Hurts, though, has averaged the second-most air yards per touchdown pass since the start of 2022 (minimum 10 passing touchdowns).
Matchup X factor: Whoever on Philadelphia’s defense is covering tight end Travis Kelce. In the Super Bowl last year, Darius Slay lined up opposite Kelce more than anyone else and (since-departed) linebacker T.J. Edwards was the nearest defender to him most often on his targets. Whether it’s the corners, linebackers or safeties marking Kelce, that’s the key defender on any given play. If you stop Kelce, the Chiefs’ offense is far less threatening. — Walder
Injuries: Eagles | Chiefs
What to know for fantasy: The Eagles give up the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, which bodes well for Rashee Rice. He leads the Chiefs’ receivers in both targets and receiving yards. Rice is the Chiefs’ top receiver and should see ample targets against the Eagles. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Coach Andy Reid is 21-3 outright and 15-9 ATS in his career off a bye. He is 8-2 outright and 5-5 ATS off a bye with the Chiefs. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Chiefs 31, Eagles 28
Walder’s pick: Eagles 24, Chiefs 23
FPI prediction: KC, 60.5% (by an average of 3.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: How the Eagles will have to adjust to life without Goedert … Philly radio station won’t play Swift ahead of Chiefs-Eagles … 15 big questions on Eagles-Chiefs