NFL Week 10 last-minute bets: Best values on props, picks and more
More Teams. More Games.
Tyler Fulghum explains why he likes the Bucs to cover and the over in receiving yards for DeAndre Hopkins. (0:52)
If I’m placing bets on a Sunday, I’m not looking at full-game spreads or totals. Those are efficient markets that have been bet into all week. Instead, I’m looking for the obscure. It’s my specialty, anyway. It’s what I build statistical models around to try to find an edge.
If there’s an advantage to be found now, it’s in small markets. So come along for the ride and see how we fare diving deep into Sunday props. Results from last week are at the bottom of the story.
Odds via ESPN BET.
Lamar Jackson under 0.5 interceptions (-122 at ESPN BET)
Jackson has thrown a pick on just 1% of his dropbacks, the second-lowest rate in the league only behind C.J. Stroud. While the Browns have an excellent defense, they are weaker against the run and that makes me think Baltimore might lean more into its ground game Sunday. Plus, the Ravens are favored and that helps: if they are ahead Jackson will have to take fewer risks. I make the fair price -134.
See also:
Jordan Love under 0.5 interceptions (+135)
Justin Herbert over 0.5 interceptions (+107)
Will Levis under 19.5 completions (-122)
I’m way under here, and that’s based primary on two factors:
1. The Titans have been a run-first team (25th in deigned pass rate) and I don’t see any reason why that should change.
2. Levis is a rookie, and most rookies don’t play particularly well in the first few games of their career. Levis is off to a solid start, but with a low completion percentage.
My number is 15.2 which is probably too far off the line but I think directionally correct.
Jared Goff over 33.5 pass attempts (-114)
If there’s one thing we know about the Chargers, it’s that you can pass on them. And that’s exactly what I suspect Jared Goff and the Lions will do. With a good offense on the other side this has barnburner potential and if that comes to fruition, Goff will have to just keep passing. I project Goff for 35.9 attempts.
Chase Young (SF) over 0.5 sacks (+103)
Prior to his trade to the 49ers Young was rushing the passer at a level similar or better to his rookie season with 5.0 sacks in seven games and a 25% pass rush win rate at edge, which ranks 9th-best. Now he’ll rush opposite Nick Bosa and be a favorite in most games (like he is this week)? Sign me up. My model prices the over at -119.
Myles Garrett (CLE) over 0.5 sacks (-134)
Only a light value here — I make the line -148 — but this is a fun one. Myles Garrett? An over? The model rarely ends up liking these minus-money overs, but Garrett is an exception because he produces and his pass rush win rate – 32% at edge, second only to Micah Parsons – is exceptional.
See also:
Shaquil Barrett (TB) under 0.5 sacks (-160)
Carl Granderson (NO) under 0.5 sacks (-110)
Ed Oliver (BUF) under 0.5 sacks (-140)
Riq Woolen (SEA) over 2.5 tackles + assists (-118)
Woolen has gone under this number in four of seven games, but I think that’s mostly a fluke of randomness — last he went over 2.5 in 14 of 17 contests. 2.5 without heavy juice on the over is awfully low for a starting corner and I project him for 4.7 tackles + assists in this contest. If you’re picking one bet from this article, I’d suggest this be it.
See also:
Julian Blackmon (IND) over 5.5 tackles + assists (+120)
Patrick Queen (BAL) over 7.5 tackles + assists (-114)
Brandon Stephens (BAL) over 3.5 tackles + assists (-110)
Azeez Al-Shaair (TEN) under 9.5 tackles + assists (+107)
Lavonte David (TB) under 9.5 tackles + assists (-106)
Bobby Okereke (NYG) under 9.5 tackles + assists (-114)
Jordan Poyer (BUF) under 7.5 tackles + assists (-150)
Last week
QB interceptions: 2-1 (+1.5 units)
Pass attempts: 1-1 (-0.0 units)
D/ST touchdowns: 1-0 (+0.9 units)
Receptions: 1-0 (+1.2 units)
Sacks: 2-0 (+1.6 units)
Tackles: 3-4-1 (-1.3 units)
Defensive interceptions: 0-2 (-2.0 units)
Overall: 10-8-1 (+1.8 units)
2023 Season
QB interceptions: 9-13 (-2.0 units)
Pass completions: 1-1 (-0.0 units)
Pass attempts: 3-5 (-2.6 units)
Receptions: 1-0 (+1.2 units)
Sacks: 52-39-1 (+11.7 units)
Tackles: 38-25-1 (+10.4 units)
D/ST touchdowns: 2-19 (-3.5 units)
Defensive interceptions: 0-3 (-3.0 units)
Teasers: 2-2 (+0.4 units)
Weekly specials: 0-3 (-3.0 units)
Game props: 0-2 (-2.0 units)
Overall: 108-112-2 (+7.6 units)