NFL team previews 2023: Predictions, sleepers, depth charts
The 2023 NFL season kicks off Thursday night, when the reigning Super Bowl champion Chiefs host the Lions (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC).
Week 1 then continues on Sunday with 14 exciting matchups — including the Cowboys visiting the Giants on “Sunday Night Football” (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC). The Bills head a little south to face the Jets to round out the slate on “Monday Night Football,” which you can catch at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN, ABC and ESPN+.
To welcome back football, NFL Nation reporters identified strengths and weaknesses of all 32 teams, NFL analyst Matt Bowen named a fantasy sleeper you should consider, analytics writer Seth Walder made 32 bold predictions and ESPN’s Stats & Information department gave a stat to know for every team heading into the season. In addition, you’ll find the chances for every team to win its division and make the playoffs, projected wins on the season and the strength of schedule. Plus, depth charts, schedules and rosters for every team.
This is everything you need to know for the start of the season, which will conclude Feb. 11 at Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas. The ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) ranked every team from 1 to 32 based on how it projects the season to play out. The Chiefs start us off at No. 1:
ESPN FPI’s chances to win AFC West: 56%
Chances to make the playoffs: 77%
Projected wins: 10.6
Strength of schedule: Second hardest
What do the Chiefs do the best?
Score points. The Chiefs led the league in scoring last season and show no signs of slowing down. In fact, the offense might be improved. New offensive tackles Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor played well in camp and the preseason and appear to be an upgrade from last season. The Chiefs are deep with playmakers at wide receiver, and with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback and Andy Reid calling the plays, the Chiefs again look potent. — Adam Teicher
What is the Chiefs’ biggest weakness?
Pass rush. The Chiefs last season were second in the league in sacks. But Chris Jones‘ holdout continues while another of their top pass-rushers, Charles Omenihu, was suspended by the league for the first six games because of a violation of the league’s personal conduct policy. The Chiefs still have some players capable of putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks, most notably end George Karlaftis. But do they have enough to generate consistent pressure? — Teicher
Stat to know: To illustrate how important Jones is to the Chiefs’ defense, let’s take a look at the numbers in the past five seasons with and without Jones on the field — according to NFL Next Gen stats. When he plays, the QBR of opponents is lower (52), the defense’s pressure percentage is higher (35%) and third-down conversions are 10% lower (38%).
Fantasy sleeper candidate: WR Justyn Ross. Take a shot on Ross late because he could develop a role in one of the league’s most explosive passing offenses. And Ross has all the physical tools to win perimeter matchups for quarterback Mahomes. — Bowen
More: Fantasy Football Draft Guide
Bold prediction for 2023: CB Trent McDuffie will make the Pro Bowl. In 2022, McDuffie ranked 10th among outside corners with at least 300 coverage snaps in yards per coverage snap allowed (0.9). That’s a promising sign for a player entering his second season. — Walder
ESPN FPI’s chances to win AFC East: 48%
Chances to make the playoffs: 74%
Projected wins: 10.5
Strength of schedule: Third hardest
What do the Bills do the best?
Stay in games. Since 2019, the Bills have finished with the best points margin per game (8.4), which means not only is Buffalo winning by a significant margin but also losing close games, making outlier games like the playoff loss to the Bengals stand out. The Bills are strong on offense behind Josh Allen posters”>Josh Allen, but the defense has allowed the fewest passing yards per game since 2019 (200.8), which will be tested with multiple defenders coming off injuries. — Alaina Getzenberg
What is the Bills’ biggest weakness?
Offensive line. The depth on the Bills’ line has taken multiple hits with tackle Brandon Shell deciding to retire and tackle Tommy Doyle suffering what coach Sean McDermott called a “season-ending injury” in the second preseason game. The team did bring in a reinforcement, signing veteran Germain Ifedi, and liked what it saw from young linemen Ryan Van Demark and Alec Anderson, but the question remains if the work done will be enough as keeping Allen healthy is the team’s top priority. — Getzenberg
Stat to know: Since Stefon Diggs joined the Bills in 2020, Allen’s career numbers have improved. His Total QBR went from 50 to 71 and his completion percentage rose from 56% to 65%.
Fantasy sleeper candidate: RB Damien Harris. Harris has the potential to emerge as the primary goal-line back for the high-scoring Buffalo offense. Even with Allen seeing designed carries in the red zone, Harris is a physical runner who could bring touchdown production to fantasy lineups. — Bowen
More: Adam Schefter’s fantasy football cheat sheet (ESPN+)
Bold prediction for 2023: Deonte Harty will finish second among Bills players in receiving yards after Diggs. I remain fascinated by Harty’s 2021 numbers, when he posted a ridiculous 2.9 yards per route run and an 81 open score (per ESPN’s Receiver Tracking Metrics) with the Saints. Teaming up with Allen should be a good thing for him. — Walder
ESPN FPI’s chances to win AFC North: 44%
Chances to make the playoffs: 73%
Projected wins: 10.6
Strength of schedule: 16th hardest
What do the Bengals do the best?
Run an efficient offense. Last season, the Bengals ranked fifth in points per drive (2.34) and red zone efficiency (64.9%), the highest finishes in those categories in the Joe Burrow era. Even when defenses forced Burrow into shorter passes to gain yards, Cincinnati still ended 27.8% of its drives for touchdowns. If the Bengals can create more drives and maintain that touchdown rate, the combo could yield one of the NFL’s best offenses. — Ben Baby
What is the Bengals’ biggest weakness?
Offensive line. The Bengals have significantly improved the offensive line over the past two years by putting new starters at all five spots. However, there’s still a gap between that unit and the others on the team. Bringing in Orlando Brown Jr. at left tackle, moving Jonah Williams to right tackle and a second year of chemistry for the interior players could be crucial to improving a unit that ranked 30th in pass block win rate (50.1%) in 2022. — Baby
Stat to know: The Bengals signed Brown, a top free agent, this offseason — and for good reason. Since drafting Burrow in 2020, Cincinnati has had the worst pass block win rate (49.6%) in the NFL. And only the Bears (152) have allowed more sacks than the Bengals (147) in that span.
Fantasy sleeper candidate: RB Chase Brown. As a complementary options behind starter Joe Mixon, Brown has the contact balance and one-cut running ability to pepper the ball between the tackles. He handled heavy volume during his final season at Illinois. If Mixon were to miss game time, Brown would become a fantasy starter in your lineup, with the ability to release out of the backfield in the pass game. — Bowen
More: Fantasy football Ultimate Draft Board (ESPN+)
Bold prediction for 2023: Burrow will set the new standard for completion percentage over expectation (CPOE), beating out Matt Ryan‘s plus-8.3% in 2016. Burrow’s elite trait is accuracy — he led the league in CPOE in 2021 with a plus-6%, and he has exceptional receivers yet again. That will allow him to establish the highest mark in the metric, which was developed by NFL Next Gen Stats in 2016. — Walder
ESPN FPI’s chances to win NFC East: 52%
Chances to make the playoffs: 82%
Projected wins: 10.3
Strength of schedule: 12th hardest
What do the Eagles do the best?
Put defenses in a bind. With quarterback Jalen Hurts running an offense based on the run-pass option, he can keep the ball, hand it off or fire a pass depending on what the opponent does post-snap. The results last season tell the tale: Philadelphia finished third in total yards (389.1 per game), fifth in rushing yards (147.6) and ninth in passing yards (241.5 per game). With a supporting cast around Hurts that features A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert and now D’Andre Swift, defenses will be hard-pressed to find good answers on how to slow this attack. — Tim McManus
What is the Eagles’ biggest weakness?
Linebacker and safety. The Eagles lost multiple starters at each position in free agency. Nakobe Dean and Zach Cunningham look to be in line to take over at linebacker, while Philly has yet to land on a dance partner to play opposite Reed Blankenship at safety. Young players like Dean and rookie Sydney Brown offer promise, but this is a largely unproven group playing for new coordinator Sean Desai. One area to watch is how this unit performs against the run. The 2022 version of the defense struggled against the ground attack in spurts, including in Super Bowl LVII when it allowed 158 yards on 26 carries (6.1 average) against the Chiefs. — McManus
Stat to know: In 2022, the Eagles became the first team to have four different players with double-digit sacks in a season since individual sacks became official in 1982. Only Javon Hargrave is not returning of those four players (Haason Reddick, Brandon Graham and Josh Sweat).
Fantasy sleeper candidate: RB Kenneth Gainwell. The Eagles will continue to use a committee approach in their backfield, but Gainwell has the traits to impact both the run and the pass game. He’s a late-round bench stash who could emerge from the pack to see consistent touches. — Bowen
More: Fantasy football mock draft: 12-team, PPR
Bold prediction for 2023: The Eagles will rank in the top 10 in designed pass rate. They ranked 22nd in the category last season but move up to 12th if we look only at plays run when a game’s win probability is between 15% and 85%. In other words, the Eagles want to pass; they just were winning by too much too often last year. This is relevant for Hurts and the Eagles’ pass-catchers in fantasy. — Walder
ESPN FPI’s chances to win NFC West: 64%
Chances to make the playoffs: 82%
Projected wins: 10.2
Strength of schedule: 13th easiest
What do the 49ers do the best?
Play defense. No disrespect to the Niners’ deep supply of offensive talent, but this is a defensive unit that returns eight starters and added elite defensive tackle Javon Hargrave in the offseason. New coordinator Steve Wilks won’t change much schematically, but his background working with defensive backs should help improve that group, which some observers consider the potential weakness of this defense. The Niners had a top defense last season, and they’ll view anything less than that as a letdown in 2023. — Nick Wagoner
What is the 49ers’ biggest weakness?
The kicking game. As it stands, the Niners don’t have a healthy kicker, let alone a proven one. Rookie kicker Jake Moody was excellent in practice during training camp but has struggled in the preseason games and is now dealing with a right quad injury. Given the Niners’ Super Bowl expectations, Moody won’t have time to ease his way in when healthy. Misses in preseason games don’t mean much, but Robbie Gould, the kicker Moody is replacing, had never missed a field goal or extra point in 68 career postseason attempts, a tough act for Moody to follow on a team planning to play in playoff games in January. — Wagoner
Stat to know: Quarterback Brock Purdy returns from right elbow surgery to start Week 1. He’s a perfect 5-0 in the regular season. Purdy recorded six straight games with multiple passing TDs in the regular season, which is tied for the fourth-longest streak by a 49ers quarterback since the merger. He was especially effective when dealing with pressure last season. From Week 13 on, he had the second-highest completion percentage (58.3%) and second-highest yards per attempt (8.2) when pressured.
Fantasy sleeper candidate: RB Elijah Mitchell. In coach Kyle Shanahan’s schemed run game, you can tag Mitchell as one of the league’s top backup runners. If Christian McCaffrey were to miss time, Mitchell would move up as an RB2 with his decisive running style and short-area speed to produce rushing totals. — Bowen
More: Fantasy football draft rankings
Bold prediction for 2023: George Kittle will reach 1,000 receiving yards for the first time since 2019. Despite fewer receiving yards over the past few seasons, Kittle’s receiving ability hasn’t wavered. In each of the past four seasons, he has ranked in the top two in the receiver tracking metrics’ overall score among tight ends. He also established a rapport with Purdy late last season that will pay off in 2023. — Walder
ESPN FPI’s chances to win AFC East: 25%
Chances to make the playoffs: 52%
Projected wins: 9.4
Strength of schedule: Fifth hardest
What do the Dolphins do the best?
Stretch a defense, as any offense with wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle should. The Dolphins were tied for most completions of 50 or more yards (eight) in the NFL last season, and probably would have led outright if quarterback Tua Tagovailoa remained healthy the entire season. He is back after an offseason focused on his durability, and Miami should be near (or at) the top of the league in this category once again. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
What is the Dolphins’ biggest weakness?
Special teams. The Dolphins were one of the worst teams in the NFL at returning and defending returns. Dolphins opponents started drives with the third-best average field position (minus-27.6) in the league last season, which put a strain on their defense. It’s an area that must improve this season; and the addition of former All-Pro returner Braxton Berrios should help. — Louis-Jacques
Stat to know: With the likes of Hill and Waddle downfield, Tagovailoa ranked first in completion percentage (59%) and yards per attempt (15.9) on throws at least 15 yards downfield in 2022. He also converted a first down on 57 passes of at least 15 yards, which was tied for second in the NFL.
Fantasy sleeper candidate: RB De’Von Achane. Achane was working through a shoulder injury in camp, but the rookie has the versatile skill set to be deployed from multiple alignments in coach Mike McDaniel’s system, like the run game, fly sweeps and receiving targets. Achane is a sudden mover with playmaking traits. Running back Jeff Wilson Jr. will miss time to start the season. — Bowen
More: Matt Bowen’s favorite draft targets (ESPN+)
Bold prediction for 2023: The Dolphins will finish as a top-three defense in terms of EPA allowed per play, even with cornerback Jalen Ramsey expected to miss most of the regular season. With defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Kader Kohou, edge rushers Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb, safety Jevon Holland and linebacker David Long Jr., there’s too much talent for Vic Fangio to work with for this defense to not be good. — Walder
ESPN FPI’s chances to win AFC West: 27%
Chances to make the playoffs: 52%
Projected wins: 9.4
Strength of schedule: Seventh hardest
What do the Chargers do the best?
Throw the ball. It’s apparent that the offense is at its best when enabling quarterback Justin Herbert to utilize his arm strength to throw downfield to any of his playmakers — all of whom he has established a comfortable connection with. In three seasons, Herbert has thrown for 14,089 yards (the most through a player’s first three seasons in NFL history) and 94 touchdowns (the second most through a player’s first three seasons in history — Dan Marino, 98). — Lindsey Thiry
What is the Chargers’ biggest weakness?
Uncertainty at running back and tight end. Running back Austin Ekeler is the established starter, but it’s unclear if Joshua Kelley and Isaiah Spiller have made enough progress in their development to provide Ekeler a breather and be relied on to shoulder some load. At tight end, where the Chargers opted not to add depth in the draft, Gerald Everett will be depended on as the starter with Donald Parham Jr. behind him. — Thiry
Stat to know: The Chargers have high expectations for safety Derwin James Jr. in 2023. He is a versatile defender — 55% of his snaps last season came at safety, but he also spent 25% of the time as an outside linebacker and both of his interceptions came as a cornerback. James is one of three players over the past two seasons with 5 sacks, 5 forced fumbles and 10 passes defended (Isaiah Simmons, T.J. Watt).
Fantasy sleeper candidate: RB Isaiah Spiller. Spiller is competing with Kelley for the No. 2 role behind Ekeler. I’m betting on the upside of Spiller, given his second-level elusiveness and lower-body balance. He could emerge as the top insurance back for the Chargers. — Bowen
More: Fantasy football players to avoid: The Do Not Draft list (ESPN+)
Bold prediction for 2023: Herbert will lead all non-Mahomes quarterbacks in QBR. Everything is there for him — strong receivers, good pass protection and a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore. Herbert has had an amazing start to his career, but he’ll take another step in 2023. — Walder
ESPN FPI’s chances to win AFC North: 28%
Chances to make the playoffs: 60%
Projected wins: 9.8
Strength of schedule: 17th hardest
What do the Ravens do the best?
Put up points. Since 2019, the Ravens have averaged 26.9 points with Lamar Jackson as their starting quarterback — which is nearly what the Chiefs have averaged with Mahomes over that span (27.3). Now, Jackson has the best supporting cast of his six-year career with the addition of wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers. The Ravens also hired Todd Monken as their offensive coordinator after his offense averaged 40.7 points last season at Georgia. — Jamison Hensley
What is the Ravens’ biggest weakness?
Cornerback. With Marlon Humphrey possibly missing the start of the season after having foot surgery, the Ravens’ top options at cornerback are three players who are coming off injuries: Rock Ya-Sin, Ronald Darby and Jalyn Armour-Davis. Baltimore struggled mightily the last time Humphrey was sidelined. When Humphrey missed the last five games in 2021, the Ravens allowed an NFL-worst 294.6 yards passing per game and 12 touchdown passes (second worst in the league). — Hensley
Stat to know: The Ravens’ receiving corps combined for 1,517 yards last season, fewest in the NFL and the fewest combined yards by a wide receiver group in a single season since … the Ravens in 2019. Baltimore made an effort to address that problem by adding first-rounder Flowers and a three-time Pro Bowler in Beckham this offseason.
Fantasy sleeper candidate: WR Rashod Bateman. The oft-injured Bateman has played a total of 19 games through his first two seasons, and Baltimore upgraded its perimeter targets with Beckham and Flowers. If healthy, however, Bateman still fits as an intermediate target — with catch-and-run ability — in a new Ravens system that will create more space in the pass game. — Bowen
More: Fantasy football ‘do draft’ list (ESPN+)
Bold prediction for 2023: Ronnie Stanley will be named a first-team All-Pro tackle. When the oft-injured Stanley is on the field, the performance has been there. Stanley ranked ninth in run block win rate last year and would have ranked fourth in pass block win rate had he qualified. Now all he has to do is stay healthy, and he’s an immediate contender. — Walder
ESPN FPI’s chances to win AFC East: 21%
Chances to make the playoffs: 47%
Projected wins: 9.2
Strength of schedule: Sixth hardest
What do the Jets do the best?
Frustrate opposing quarterbacks. With a 10-man defensive-line rotation and lockdown corners in Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, the Jets rush the passer in waves and squeeze quarterbacks into throwing harmless passes over the middle. The Jets allowed a league-low 15 touchdown passes last season and only 5.5 yards per dropback, second only to the Eagles. You can’t survive in a passing league without a strong pass defense, and the Jets have one. — Rich Cimini
What is the Jets’ biggest weakness?
Offensive tackles. The Jets have durability concerns at both tackle spots. Left tackle Duane Brown had no training camp after recovering from rotator-cuff surgery, and he just turned 38. Projected right tackle Mekhi Becton, playing on a twice-repaired right knee, hasn’t played a complete game since 2020. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers needs protection. Over the past three years, he has the second-highest Total QBR on plays when the defense doesn’t get a pass-rush win, but that drops to 28th when the defense has at least one pass-rush win on a play. — Cimini
Stat to know: Rodgers has thrown for 4,000 yards in 10 seasons of his career — that’s tied with Matt Ryan for the fifth most all-time. The Jets have had one season with a 4,000-yard passer in their history — 1967 by Joe Namath, the first player to pass for 4,000 yards in a season in NFL history.
Fantasy sleeper candidate: WR Allen Lazard. Lazard averaged 11.7 PPR points per game last season with Rodgers in Green Bay, and it’s a seamless transition to the Jets, where former Packers coordinator Nathaniel Hackett is now running the offense. Lazard has the upside of a WR3 in deeper leagues. — Bowen
More: NFL Nation answers questions for your fantasy draft board
Bold prediction for 2023: Bryce Huff will finally get more playing time and pick up at least eight sacks. The backup edge rusher has had incredible numbers when on the field, with a 30% pass rush win rate and 15% pressure rate. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, those percentages would have ranked first and fourth, respectively, had he played enough snaps to qualify. — Walder
ESPN FPI’s chances to win NFC East: 33%
Chances to make the playoffs: 68%
Projected wins: 9.5
Strength of schedule: 11th hardest
What the Cowboys do the best?
Rattle the quarterback and take the ball away. These two things go hand in hand. With Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence, Dorance Armstrong, Dante Fowler Jr. and Sam Williams, the Cowboys are deep with pressure players. Last year, the Cowboys finished tied for third in sacks with 54 and led the league in takeaways with 33. They will look to be the first team since the 1972-74 Pittsburgh Steelers to lead the league in takeaways for three straight years. The addition of Stephon Gilmore, a former Defensive Player of the Year, to complement Trevon Diggs, who has 17 interceptions in three years, makes the Cowboys even more formidable in the secondary. — Todd Archer
What is the Cowboys’ biggest weakness?
Offensive line depth. And this isn’t a Cowboys-only deal. It’s leaguewide. Beyond their five starters, they do not have experienced depth. Left tackle Tyron Smith has played in 17 of a possible 50 regular-season games with Mike McCarthy as coach. Right tackle Terence Steele is coming back from a major knee injury. If the Cowboys lose one or more of their starters — and history says they will for at least a few games — then they will be tested and perhaps forced to rework their offensive plan. — Archer
Stat to know: Receiver Brandin Cooks gives Dallas a deep threat and a player who can generate separation. Last season, the Cowboys had four receptions on passes thrown 30-plus yards downfield, the same amount as Cooks had on his own in 13 games.
Fantasy sleeper candidate: RB Deuce Vaughn. Vaughn flashed during the preseason, using his short-area speed and vision to find daylight as a runner — there’s some juice to his game. Now, it’s on the rookie to lock down the No. 2 role behind starter Tony Pollard in Dallas, creating fantasy potential as an insurance play. — Bowen
More: Field’s fantasy favorites for the 2023 NFL season (ESPN+)
Bold prediction for 2023: Parsons will break the single-season sack record. Sure, he’s never had more than 13.5 sacks in a season. But he’s also never not led the league in pass rush win rate. With his exceptional skill and good corner play behind him, I think this could be the year for Parsons’ sack number to explode. — Walder
ESPN FPI’s chances to win NFC North: 43%
Chances to make the playoffs: 65%
Projected wins: 9.3
Strength of schedule: 11th easiest
What do the Lions do the best?
Score. Behind a strong offensive line, which is returning Pro Bowlers Penei Sewell and Frank Ragnow, the Lions averaged the fifth-most points scored (25.7) in 2022. They have added running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery and rookie tight end Sam LaPorta, while returning wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and quarterback Jared Goff, who are looking to pick up where they left off after winning eight of their final 10 games last year. — Eric Woodyard
What is the Lions’ biggest weakness?
Rush defense. As a whole, the entire Lions defense struggled last season, but particularly against the run, where opponents averaged 5.2 yards per carry, which tied for the second most in the league. The interior defensive line still needs work, but they’re hoping Alim McNeill and Isaiah Buggs along with Aidan Hutchinson and John Cominsky will help them get off to a strong start. — Woodyard
Stat to know: An issue for the Lions last season was their defense, which had the second-worst efficiency (39.59) in the NFL, ahead of only the Bears, who had the worst record in the NFL. The pass defense was particularly bad as Detroit ranked last in the NFL in QBR allowed (58.1). As a result, the Lions revamped their secondary in the offseason, signing three new starters in Cameron Sutton, Emmanuel Moseley and C.J. Gardner-Johnson.
Fantasy sleeper candidate: TE Sam LaPorta. I’d take a late-round shot on LaPorta in deeper leagues. The rookie will start the season as the No. 1 tight end in Detroit’s play-action-heavy pass game. He can stretch the seams, flex outside and rumble after the catch. He’s a rugged mover with 4.59 speed. — Bowen
More: Mike Clay’s 2023 NFL Betting Props Playbook (ESPN+)
Bold prediction for 2023: Jameson Williams will finish the season as a top-20 fantasy wide receiver in points per game played after he returns from his six-game suspension for violating the NFL’s gambling policy. Had it not been for his torn ACL in his left knee that he suffered at Alabama, Williams probably would have been drafted higher than 12th overall last year. With that injury in the rearview mirror, I’m betting on a player worth that type of draft capital. — Walder
ESPN FPI’s chances to win AFC South: 54%
Chances to make the playoffs: 62%
Projected wins: 9.3
Strength of schedule: Eighth easiest
What do the Jaguars do the best?
Score points. The Jaguars, led by quarterback Trevor Lawrence, were 10th in points scored last season. And it’s Year 2 in coach Doug Pederson’s system, so there could be a jump in production — like what happened with his Philadelphia offense in 2017. The team added receiver Calvin Ridley, who had 1,374 yards receiving in his last full season (2020), and two rookies who will have big roles: running back Tank Bigsby and tight end Brenton Strange. — Mike DiRocco
What is the Jaguars’ biggest weakness?
Pass rush. The Jaguars had 35 sacks last season (ranked 25th), lost a key contributor (Arden Key), didn’t draft a pass-rusher until the fifth round and haven’t signed an available veteran. They’re counting on former No. 1 pick Travon Walker to make a significant jump (he had 3.5 sacks as a rookie) and on linebacker Josh Allen posters”>Josh Allen to produce more than he did last season. Allen’s 64 quarterback pressures ranked fourth in the NFL, but he had only seven sacks. — DiRocco
Stat to know: The Jaguars need Lawrence to start the season like he ended last season. In the second half of 2022, Lawrence’s QBR jumped from 44.3 to 63.9, his completion percentage rose from 62.5% to 69.7%, and his touchdown-to-interception ratio went from 10-6 to 15-2.
Fantasy sleeper candidate: RB Tank Bigsby. An a No. 2 option behind starter Travis Etienne Jr., the rookie can play downhill and find daylight in zone run schemes. Bigsby doesn’t bring high-level receiving traits to the pros, but he would elevate to the RB2 ranks if Etienne were to miss time. — Bowen
More: Fantasy Football Draft Guide
Bold prediction for 2023: The Jaguars will finish last in pass block win rate, and the offensive line will sink any chances of them being an actual Super Bowl contender. Lawrence will have a low sack rate because he’s good at avoiding sacks, but the line will crush the team’s passing efficiency. — Walder
ESPN FPI’s chances to win AFC North: 17%
Chances to make the playoffs: 44%
Projected wins: 9.1
Strength of schedule: 18th hardest
What do the Browns do the best?
Rush the passer. All-Pro Myles Garrett has never had a teammate reach double-digit sacks. That could change with the arrival of Za’Darius Smith, who has finished with 10-plus sacks in three of the past four seasons and appears to be over the knee injury that plagued him last year. Garrett was the most double-teamed edge rusher (31.1%) in the league last year. If that continues, Smith will have plenty of favorable opportunities to get to the quarterback. — Jake Trotter
What is the Browns’ biggest weakness?
Special teams. The Browns have tried to address their special teams woes. In 2022, they drafted kicker Cade York in the fourth round and signed Pro Bowl returner Jakeem Grant Sr. They even switched special teams coaches. But York’s struggles prompted the Browns to cut him last week and trade for kicker Dustin Hopkins. Grant suffered a season-ending injury during the preseason for a second straight year. As a result, special teams continue to be a major question mark. — Trotter
Stat to know: The Browns have finished 15 consecutive seasons with a negative point differential, a streak that dates back to 2008. That is tied for the longest streak of its kind in NFL history (with the Buccaneers, 1982-1996). Can Garrett’s defense and Deshaun Watson‘s offense snap the streak in 2023?
Fantasy sleeper candidate: WR Elijah Moore. Moore’s versatility as a motion/movement player in the Browns’ offense should generate opportunities on manufactured touches. Plus, he can operate out of the slot for Watson. With an anticipated bump in overall volume, Moore is worth a late-round pick in deeper leagues. — Bowen
More: Adam Schefter’s fantasy football cheat sheet (ESPN+)
Bold prediction for 2023: The Browns will win six or fewer games or 11 or more — no in-between. Because of Watson, this is the highest variance team in the league. If he’s the Watson of 2019, the Browns are Super Bowl contenders. If he’s the Watson of 2022, they’ll be a mess. — Walder
ESPN FPI’s chances to win AFC West: 14%
Chances to make the playoffs: 33%
Projected wins: 8.4
Strength of schedule: Eighth hardest
What do the Broncos do the best?
Rush the passer. The Broncos need Randy Gregory to have a full, productive season of work — he has never played more than 14 games in any season — and for Frank Clark to muster some of his postseason mojo into the regular season. Jonathon Cooper has been the most consistent of the rushers in camp and preseason games, Nik Bonitto has shown he’s ready for a jump in production, and they expect Baron Browning back from knee surgery sometime after Week 4. With Gregory leading the way, the pass rush is one to watch. — Jeff Legwold
What is the Broncos’ biggest weakness?
Depth. The Broncos dealing five first- or second-round picks — and six picks overall — in the past two years to trade for Russell Wilson and coach Sean Payton has this team thin in plenty of spots. The reserves (the second and third teams) have not held their own in the preseason games or joint practices with the Rams. If injuries to starters pile up, the Broncos could have a problem. — Legwold
Stat to know: Payton’s Saints teams averaged 27.6 points per game during his 15 seasons as head coach, the highest for any coach in the Super Bowl era (min. 40 games). This is a welcome sight for a Broncos team that finished last with 16.9 PPG in 2022.
Fantasy sleeper candidate: WR Marvin Mims Jr. A burner with 4.3 speed, Mims is an explosive-play target who can stretch defenses and attack open space after the catch. While his route tree will need to expand in the pros, he has the traits to win schemed matchups in the new Denver pass game under Payton. — Bowen
More: Fantasy football Ultimate Draft Board (ESPN+)
Bold prediction for 2023: Wilson will finish in the top 16 in QBR. This one scares me because it really could go the other way, as it did in 2022. But even in 2021, when Wilson was far from his peak, he finished 10th, and I’m banking on a motivated Wilson, now being coached by Payton, showing that he still has something left in the tank. — Walder
ESPN FPI’s chances to win NFC West: 27%
Chances to make the playoffs: 54%
Projected wins: 8.7
Strength of schedule: 19th hardest
What do the Seahawks do the best?
Cover. This is a projection based more on how strong the Seahawks’ secondary looks now than how that group played last season. It was solid in 2022. Seattle’s defense finished with the third-lowest opponent Total QBR (49) but also allowed 53 pass plays of at least 20 yards, tied for eighth most. It should be better in 2023, especially at cornerback. Seattle drafted Devon Witherspoon at No. 5 and could see a jump from Riq Woolen, who made the Pro Bowl as a rookie last year in his third full season at the position. — Brady Henderson
What is the Seahawks’ biggest weakness?
Run defense. It’s at least the biggest question mark, because it’s hard to imagine the Seahawks being as bad against the run as they were last year, when they allowed the third-most rushing yards (2,554) of any team and lost at least five games because of it. They overhauled their front seven, highlighted by their free-agent splurge on Dre’Mont Jones and a reunion with Bobby Wagner. They have to be better against the run to have any chance of catching the 49ers in the NFC West. — Henderson
Stat to know: Quarterback Geno Smith was a big reason for the Seahawks’ success in 2022. Smith set the single-season Seahawks record for passing yards (4,282) and completion percentage (69.8%). To help out Smith, the Seahawks drafted receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba with one of two first-round selections. Smith-Njigba joins Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf in the receivers room. There have been only five instances in NFL history of a team having three players who recorded 1,000 receiving yards in a single season — the last being the Cardinals in 2008.
Fantasy sleeper candidate: TE Noah Fant. Fant, who averaged 7.7 PPR points per game in 2022, fits as a deeper-league TE2 with the physical profile to produce on the bootleg/play-action concepts of the Seahawks’ offense. — Bowen
More: Fantasy football mock draft: 12-team, PPR
Bold prediction for 2023: Abraham Lucas will finish as a top-10 tackle in pass block win rate. He ranked 17th in 2022 — awfully impressive as a rookie — and elevating to a top-10 tackle in Year 2 would be an incredible return on a third-round pick. — Walder
ESPN FPI’s chances to win NFC North: 26%
Chances to make the playoffs: 49%
Projected wins: 8.5
Strength of schedule: 14th hardest
What do the Vikings do the best?
Getting the ball to Justin Jefferson. Even with opposing defenses keying on Jefferson, the Vikings know how to mass-target him in meaningful and productive ways. His NFL-high 181 targets last season included 35 tight-window targets (NFL Next Gen Stats). Coach Kevin O’Connell and quarterback Kirk Cousins know Jefferson is a good bet to run their entire offense through. Last season, Jefferson rewarded them with a receptions above expected rate of 14.8%, by far the best in the NFL. — Kevin Seifert
What is the Vikings’ biggest weakness?
Proven pass rush. The Vikings have only one player on their roster who has achieved a double-digit-sack season: outside linebacker Danielle Hunter. Outside linebacker Marcus Davenport has some one-on-one ability. But for the most part, if they’re going to put pressure on the quarterbacks, the Vikings will need either the emergence of a previously unnoticed pass-rusher or, more likely, dynamic schemes from defensive coordinator Brian Flores. — Seifert
Stat to know: The Vikings’ offense will look particularly different following the departures of running back Dalvin Cook and receiver Adam Thielen. Minnesota ran 1,123 offensive plays last season and either Cook or Thielen was on the field for 1,059 of them (94%).
Fantasy sleeper candidate: WR K.J. Osborn. Osborn has plenty of competition for targets playing behind receivers Jefferson and Jordan Addison, plus tight end T.J. Hockenson. However, Osborn will have opportunities to produce in three-WR sets in the Vikings’ pass-heavy offense. — Bowen
More: Fantasy football draft rankings
Bold prediction for 2023: Ty Chandler will take over as the Vikings’ top running back and lead them in rushing yards by the end of the season. Alexander Mattison has recorded negative rush yards over expectation in each of the past two seasons (minus-42 in 2022, minus-72 in 2021), per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder
ESPN FPI’s chances to win AFC North: 11%
Chances to make the playoffs: 34%
Projected wins: 8.5
Strength of schedule: 12th easiest
What do the Steelers do the best?
Rush the passer. The Steelers have former Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt anchoring one side, and they signed Alex Highsmith to an extension in the offseason following a career-best 14.5-sack season. And behind Watt and Highsmith, the Steelers have the best depth they’ve had in recent years. They signed Markus Golden in free agency and drafted Wisconsin linebacker Nick Herbig in the fourth round. At 6-2, 228 pounds, Herbig has been a pleasant surprise in the preseason with 3.5 sacks in three games. — Brooke Pryor
What is the Steelers’ biggest weakness?
Offensive line. It’s hard to fully gauge an offensive line before the start of the regular season, and the starting unit has performed well in small in-game sample sizes. Both the run blocking and pass protection have looked better than they did even late last season — did you catch the perfectly blocked 62-yard Jaylen Warren preseason touchdown? — but the biggest test will come Week 1 against a 49ers defense that added former Steeler Hargrave to a front that already has reigning DPOY Nick Bosa — holdout notwithstanding. — Pryor
Stat to know: Could quarterback Kenny Pickett have a breakout sophomore season? It’s possible, given the fact that he had a higher completion percentage (63%), Total QBR (52) and yards per attempt average (6.2) than Lawrence had in his rookie season. And Pickett will have a pair of talented pass-catchers to help. In 2022, Diontae Johnson earned the best score at getting open in the NFL, while George Pickens was tied for the top score at catching the football, per ESPN Analytics receiving metrics.
Fantasy sleeper candidate: QB Kenny Pickett. As a rookie, Pickett averaged 11.5 fantasy points per game, but he is in position to make a second-year jump. Pickett has the mobility to add rushing totals to your lineup, and the Steelers feature a versatile group of pass-catchers who can create positive matchups. — Bowen
More: Matt Bowen’s favorite draft targets (ESPN+)
Bold prediction for 2023: Warren will finish the season with more touches than Najee Harris. Harris recorded minus-116 rushing yards over expectation last season, per NFL Next Gen Stats (Warren was plus-8), and Warren was tied for second among running backs in receiver tracking metrics’ overall score. In other words, Warren is the better runner and pass-catcher. — Walder
ESPN FPI’s chances to win AFC East: 6%
Chances to make the playoffs: 19%
Projected wins: 7.5
Strength of schedule: Hardest
What do the Patriots do the best?
Rush the passer. Four-time Pro Bowl outside linebacker Matthew Judon has 28 sacks over the past two seasons. The Patriots have a knack for creating disruption for opposing quarterbacks with a scheme that manufactures pressure relying on a variety of twists and stunts led by Judon. — Mike Reiss
What is the Patriots’ biggest weakness?
Offensive line. Starting guards Cole Strange (left leg/knee) and Mike Onwenu (offseason ankle surgery) and swing offensive tackle Calvin Anderson (non-football illness) have just recently returned to practice after missing most of training camp, and it’s been a struggle to piece together a top line. When it does happen, will the talent level be sufficient? — Reiss
Stat to know: Mac Jones and the Patriots’ offense had a tough time adjusting to life without an official offensive coordinator in 2022. The Patriots scored 31 offensive touchdowns, 17 fewer than they did in 2021. Their red zone efficiency also dipped significantly as they scored a touchdown on a league-worst 42% of their red zone drives (19 TDs in 45 trips). With Bill O’Brien as their offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, Jones might look more like his rookie-year self in 2023.
Fantasy sleeper candidate: TE Hunter Henry. The Patriots signed another tight end in Mike Gesicki, but Henry still has fantasy value as a TE2 in O’Brien’s offensive system. Plus, Jones is at his best when throwing timing routes to the middle of the field. — Bowen
More: Fantasy football players to avoid: The Do Not Draft list (ESPN+)
Bold prediction for 2023: Henry will produce a career high in receiving yards. Henry finished fourth in open score (68) among tight ends a year ago, and I’m betting on the Patriots offense to kick it up a notch or three under the direction of an offensive coordinator with experience, well, coordinating an offense. Henry’s career-high receiving yardage is only 652, so this is certainly within reach. — Walder
ESPN FPI’s chances to win NFC East: 11%
Chances to make the playoffs: 36%
Projected wins: 7.9
Strength of schedule: 10th hardest
What do the Giants do the best?
Rush the passer. “Pressure breaks pipes.” It’s a saying that defensive coordinator Wink Martindale lives by. The Giants pressured opposing quarterbacks on 30.5% of dropbacks last season, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. That was eighth best in the NFL. With the hopeful emergence of Kayvon Thibodeaux in Year 2 and a healthier season from Azeez Ojulari, that number should only rise. — Jordan Raanan
What is the Giants’ biggest weakness?
Pass blocking. The interior of the offensive line and right tackle Evan Neal all come with questions. Neal was 58th out of 64 qualifying tackles last season with an 81.1% pass block win rate. He needs to improve drastically. Combine that with uncertainty at guard and a rookie center in John Michael Schmitz Jr. and a lot will ride on the coaching staff’s ability to scheme around this deficiency. — Raanan
Stat to know: The Giants traded for tight end Darren Waller to help take their passing game to the next level, especially given Daniel Jones‘ success when throwing to tight ends. Last season, Jones ranked fifth in the NFL in Total QBR (89.2) and completion percentage (77.9) when targeting the position.
Fantasy sleeper candidate: WR Isaiah Hodgins. The Giants have plenty of competition in their wide receiver room, but I’d take a chance on Hodgins based on his tape and numbers in 2022. Over the final five weeks of the season, Hodgins posted four games with 14 or more PPR points — and he did that with Jones targeting him at all three levels of the field. — Bowen
More: Fantasy football ‘do draft’ list (ESPN+)
Bold prediction for 2023: Thibodeaux and Ojulari will both hit 10 sacks. Playing in Martindale’s blitz-heavy scheme, the sack opportunities should be there, and both players put up above average pass rush win rates at edge a season ago. — Walder
ESPN FPI’s chances to win NFC South: 41%
Chances to make the playoffs: 58%
Projected wins: 8.9
Strength of schedule: Easiest
What do the Saints do the best?
Spreading the ball around. That wasn’t the case last year when rookie Chris Olave had 72 receptions and 1,042 yards due to injuries elsewhere, but it’s certainly been the formula to success in the past. And that’s what the Saints have shown in camp and plan on doing in 2023. The Saints won’t put everything on the shoulders of Olave or Michael Thomas with other potential pass-catchers like tight end Juwan Johnson, running back Alvin Kamara and a number of others expected to be rotated into the mix. — Katherine Terrell
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What is the Saints’ biggest weakness?
Forcing turnovers. For as good as the Saints’ defense has been all-around lately, it had a severe drop-off in its takeaway/turnover ratio last season. Its net differential of minus-11 was 31st in the league in 2022, and this is something it has worked to improve. The Saints hope that several new faces on the defensive coaching staff and getting a healthy cornerback Marshon Lattimore back after he missed half of last season will swing things back in their favor. — Terrell
Stat to know: Derek Carr is the Saints’ new quarterback and could provide some stability at the position that has been absent since Drew Brees retired. Carr is one of five quarterbacks to throw for at least 3,500 yards in each of the past five seasons, along with Tom Brady, Mahomes, Rodgers and Cousins.
Fantasy sleeper candidate: WR Rashid Shaheed. Shaheed had double-digit PPR production in five of the 12 games he played last season. He is a vertical target who also has route-running chops to uncover underneath — and he can scoot after the catch. — Bowen
More: NFL Nation answers questions for your fantasy draft board
Bold prediction for 2023: Olave will reach 1,500 receiving yards. Olave finished seventh in the receiver tracking metrics’ overall score (77) as a rookie. That included finishing eighth in the most important category for future production, which is open score (82). With better quarterback play, the box score stats will follow. — Walder
ESPN FPI’s chances to win NFC South: 33%
Chances to make the playoffs: 51%
Projected wins: 8.5
Strength of schedule: Second easiest
What do the Falcons do the best?
Run the ball. To be clear — the Falcons should throw the ball more than last season, but Atlanta returns a 1,000-yard rusher in second-year pro Tyler Allgeier (1,035 yards), drafted offensive option Bijan Robinson with the No. 8 overall pick and still has Cordarrelle Patterson (4.8 yards per carry last season). No matter who the Falcons put in the backfield last season, they were successful (4.9 yards per carry as a team, ranking fourth in the NFL). With the potential for more unpredictability in Atlanta’s offense, it could open up more opportunities for bigger rushing gains in 2023. — Michael Rothstein
What is the Falcons’ biggest weakness?
Depth at wide receiver. This is tricky with Atlanta because of how it will use all of its skill position players as pass-catchers instead of the conventional running back/wide receiver/tight end. Atlanta has a potential star in Drake London, and Mack Hollins is coming off a career year in Las Vegas (695 yards). Behind them, no receiver has 1,000 career yards, and only KhaDarel Hodge and Scott Miller have significant experience. It doesn’t look as bad when you think of Kyle Pitts, Jonnu Smith, Robinson and Patterson as pass-catchers, too, but the receiver position is thin on experience. — Rothstein
Stat to know: A potential upside to quarterback Desmond Ridder‘s game is a lack of mistakes. Despite facing enough pass-rush pressure to produce nine sacks in his first four games, Ridder did not throw a single interception in 115 passes. He has a chance to break the NFL record for most attempts prior to his first career interception (211, Kyler Murray).
Fantasy sleeper candidate: RB Tyler Allgeier. A prime insurance play behind Robinson in 10- and 12-team leagues, Allgeier also has deeper-league value given the heavy running-game approach of the Falcons’ offense. In 2022, Allgeier averaged 10 PPR points per game. — Bowen
More: Field’s fantasy favorites for the 2023 NFL season (ESPN+)
Bold prediction for 2023: A.J. Terrell will regain his 2021 form and be named either first- or second-team All-Pro. Terrell led outside corners with the lowest yards per coverage snap allowed (0.6) and total EPA allowed (minus-29) in 2021, per NFL Next Gen Stats, but he ranked last in the latter category in 2022 (plus-28). Despite his poor 2022, his play two years ago showed he can be truly elite. — Walder
ESPN FPI’s chances to win AFC South: 23%
Chances to make the playoffs: 31%
Projected wins: 7.9
Strength of schedule: Seventh easiest
What do the Titans do the best?
Stopping the run. The defense makes it hard for opposing teams to run the ball. Just ask Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins. “They were No. 1 against the run last year for a reason,” Cousins said after joint practices. Tennessee allowed a league-best 76.9 rushing yards per game last year. Defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons said it’s something they pride themselves on. The front four with Simmons and Teair Tart consistently penetrate the backfield, and the outside linebackers set the edge while inside backers fill the gaps. They also have sound tacklers on the backend. — Turron Davenport
What is the Titans’ biggest weakness?
Offensive line. Center Aaron Brewer is the only returning starter, and he’s moving from left guard. Left tackle Andre Dillard joins the team after three seasons in Philadelphia. Rookie Peter Skoronski is at left guard after mostly playing left tackle at Northwestern. The right side of the line is a bigger question mark. Daniel Brunskill comes over after 19 starts at right guard over the last two seasons with the 49ers. But 2022 starter Nicholas Petit-Frere‘s suspension for violating the league’s gambling policy created a void at right tackle. Chris Hubbard has an inside track to start the season there. — Davenport
Stat to know: DeAndre Hopkins, in his first season with the Titans, has been one of the top wideouts in the NFL since he entered the league in 2013. He has 853 career receptions, the fourth most by any player within his first 10 seasons in NFL history behind Marvin Harrison (927), Brandon Marshall (882) and Torry Holt (869). His former team, the Cardinals, was significantly more effective with Hopkins. Arizona scored 6.4 more points per game (25.9 compared to 19.5) when he played.
Fantasy sleeper candidate: TE Chigoziem Okonkwo. Okonkwo has been a top sleeper pick all offseason after averaging 14.1 yards per catch — on 32 receptions — last season. He enters 2023 as the Titans’ No. 1 tight end, with a skill set to create second-level matchups and find open grass in the Titans’ schemed play-action concepts. — Bowen
More: Mike Clay’s 2023 NFL Betting Props Playbook (ESPN+)
Bold prediction for 2023: The Titans will lose at least 12 games. This is the year it all finally breaks down. The offensive line is too bad, Derrick Henry and Hopkins are too old, and the offense ceases to function at a contending level. I’ve lost by betting against Mike Vrabel before, but I’m giving it another shot. — Walder
ESPN FPI’s chances to win NFC North: 17%
Chances to make the playoffs: 37%
Projected wins: 7.9
Strength of schedule: Sixth easiest
What do the Bears do the best?
Run the football. Justin Fields‘ explosive running ability helped him amass 1,143 rushing yards, the second-most ever by a quarterback, and helped the Bears post the best rushing offense in 2022 (177.3 yards per game). Chicago will still rely on Fields’ legs in certain situations — like the low red zone — but the team is aiming to take that burden off Fields with its versatile backfield. Khalil Herbert led all running backs with 5.7 yards per carry in 2022, and he is the lead back in Chicago’s committee approach, which will also use D’Onta Foreman, Roschon Johnson and fullback Khari Blasingame. — Courtney Cronin
What is the Bears’ biggest weakness?
Uncertainty along the O-line. The Bears had their projected starting five ready to go by the end of the spring only for an injury to left guard Teven Jenkins to force a shuffle up front. All of their starters aside from left tackle Braxton Jones have missed time in training camp due to injury. The Bears are banking on better pass protection to help Fields and the passing offense take the next step, but these injury setbacks could prove detrimental for achieving that feat. — Cronin
Stat to know: Last season, Chicago was one of two teams in the NFL that didn’t have a wide receiver record at least 500 receiving yards. Enter new Bears receiver DJ Moore, who has tallied over 1,000 yards in three of his five seasons in the NFL.
Fantasy sleeper candidate: RB Roschon Johnson. The Bears’ running back room is crowded, but Johnson has the powerful north/south running traits to emerge this season as an early-down back who has pass-catching ability out of the backfield. In his final season at Texas, Johnson averaged 3.96 yards per carry after first contact. He’s a late-draft add as a bench stash. — Bowen
More: Fantasy Football Draft Guide
Bold prediction for 2023: Fields will post a double-digit sack rate again. Last year, Fields was at 12.5% and was the only quarterback in double digits (league average was 6.3%). Sacks are largely a quarterback stat, so even though the Bears might feel like they’ve improved their offensive line, Fields will have to improve to fix that number. — Walder
ESPN FPI’s chances to win NFC North: 14%
Chances to make the playoffs: 33%
Projected wins: 7.7
Strength of schedule: Ninth easiest
What do the Packers do the best?
Blocking. The Packers ranked fifth in pass block win rate (66.8%) and eighth in run block win rate (72.4%) last season and return all of their key offensive linemen from last season. That should make life a little easier for quarterback Jordan Love, who enjoyed stellar pass protection during training camp and the preseason. — Rob Demovsky
What is the Packers’ biggest weakness?
Experience. This will be one of the youngest — if not the youngest — group of receivers and tight ends in the league. Their most experienced receivers are second-year pros Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson. Their No. 3 receiver will likely be rookie Jayden Reed. They have only one tight end with NFL experience (Josiah Deguara), and he’s more of a fullback/H-back. Their other two tight ends are rookies (Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft). — Demovsky
Stat to know: What is the potential ceiling for Love in 2023 after he played sparingly in his first three career seasons? Since 1950, the most touchdown passes by a quarterback in his fourth career season after starting one or fewer games in their first three seasons is 28, done by Aaron Rodgers.
Fantasy sleeper candidate: WR Jayden Reed. There is a path for Reed to see consistent volume as a slot target for Love. Reed can track the ball vertically, and he should also be deployed as a middle-of-the-field target on defined play-action throws in coach Matt LaFleur’s offense where he can use his catch-and-run ability. — Bowen
More: Adam Schefter’s fantasy football cheat sheet (ESPN+)
Bold prediction for 2023: The Packers will win the NFC North. Is it so far-fetched? Love is supported by a strong offensive line and has at least one good receiver in Watson. This team has real talent defensively, too. And LaFleur got more than expected out of the Packers’ roster prior to last season. — Walder
ESPN FPI’s chances to win AFC West: 4%
Chances to make the playoffs: 11%
Projected wins: 6.8
Strength of schedule: Fourth hardest
What do the Raiders do the best?
Run the ball. Josh Jacobs, who last season led the NFL in rushing yards (1,653), yards from scrimmage (2,053) and touches (393), did not report to the Raiders due to a contract dispute until training camp and the exhibition season was over. So how fine is that line between rest and rust? As Jacobs put it after his first practice since January, “Physically, I ain’t missed a step.” That would portend good things for the Raiders on the ground. Again. — Paul Gutierrez
What is the Raiders’ biggest weakness?
Takeaways. The Raiders were last in the league with 13 takeaways last season, including an NFL-low six interceptions. So forcing turnovers has been a point of emphasis throughout camp and the exhibition season. Case in point — safety Isaiah Pola-Mao‘s 50-yard pick-six against the Rams. “I always tell my D-linemen, ‘Go eat. It’s our job to clean you up,'” linebacker Robert Spillane said. “I get safeties behind me, ‘Go fly around, we’ll make you right.’ So, it’s that three levels of trust throughout a defense that really has been coming together.” — Gutierrez
Stat to know: Defense was a problem in Las Vegas last season. The Raiders’ defense allowed a Total QBR of 55 (which ranked 31st in the NFL) and their 27 sacks were 30th in the league. Maxx Crosby — who accounted for nearly half of the Raiders’ sacks last season (46%) — needed some help, so the Raiders drafted defensive end Tyree Wilson No. 7 overall. Wilson averaged 4.3 QB pressures per game last season, the most in the FBS.
Fantasy sleeper candidate: RB Zamir White. Jacobs signed his franchise tag, but White is still a smart sleeper play in the Raiders’ backfield. With his downhill power and lateral quicks, White could vault into a volume role if Jacobs misses some game action. — Bowen
More: Fantasy football Ultimate Draft Board (ESPN+)
Bold prediction for 2023: The Raiders will finish with a top-10 scoring offense. Jimmy Garoppolo is playing behind a solid offensive line and has a great receiving combination in Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers. Plus, the Raiders’ defense will be so bad, which will result in plenty of shootouts. — Walder
ESPN FPI’s chances to win NFC East: 5%
Chances to make the playoffs: 18%
Projected wins: 6.7
Strength of schedule: Ninth hardest
What do the Commanders do the best?
Play defense. Last season, Washington ranked third in yards allowed per game (304.6) and had the NFL’s best third-down defense with a conversion percentage of 31.9%. Tackles Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen form one of the best interior duos in the league. Plus, end Chase Young looked quick off the ball this summer before a stinger injury in his neck limited him. They bolstered the secondary with No. 16 overall pick, corner Emmanuel Forbes. And the secondary’s depth and versatility will allow them to disguise coverages better. — John Keim
What is the Commanders’ biggest weakness?
Offensive line. Washington revamped its line after last season when it had one of the worst groups in the NFL. The Commanders have new starters at four line positions, so they remain a work in progress as well as a question mark. They lack high-end talent (no first-rounders on the roster and one picked in the second) and experienced depth. The run blocking has been solid this summer, and an emphasis on quick passes and RPOs should help the protection. If this group has a good year, so will the Commanders. — Keim
Stat to know: Offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, in his first season with the Commanders, has the tough task of turning around an offense that has struggled to find consistency under coach Ron Rivera. Over the last three seasons, the Commanders rank 27th in points per game (19.8), 29th yards per play (5.0) and have the league’s third-lowest team Total QBR (39).
Fantasy sleeper candidate: QB Sam Howell. In Washington, Howell has the receiving talent to produce as a thrower, and his second-reaction ability will create scramble opportunities to log rushing yards for your lineup. He has been a target for me this summer in superflex formats. — Bowen
More: Fantasy football mock draft: 12-team, PPR
Bold prediction for 2023: Jacoby Brissett will take over as starting quarterback by Week 7. I’m worried about Howell’s high sack rates and sack-to-pressure rates in college and how that pairs with a weak Commanders interior offensive line. — Walder
ESPN FPI’s chances to win NFC South: 17%
Chances to make the playoffs: 30%
Projected wins: 7.5
Strength of schedule: Fourth easiest
What do the Panthers do the best?
Pressure the quarterback. The potential is there with the switch from a 4-3 scheme to a 3-4, but the Panthers haven’t played their top two pass-rushers (Brian Burns and Justin Houston) in a preseason game, so there’s a lot of unknown. However, with Burns coming off a career-best 12.5 sacks, Houston off a 9.5-sack season and both being in a defense that thrives on pressure and sacks, this should be a strength. — David Newton
What is the Panthers’ biggest weakness?
Depth at wide receiver. Adam Thielen is solid and DJ Chark Jr. posters”>DJ Chark Jr. can be when he’s not injured (hamstring). After that, the Panthers are relying on rookie Jonathan Mingo, still-trying-to-prove-himself Terrace Marshall Jr. (who is dealing with a back injury) and Laviska Shenault Jr., who may be better at running back than receiver. That’s not a particularly stellar group for rookie quarterback Bryce Young to depend on. — Newton
Stat to know: Young will look to significantly improve Carolina’s quarterback play on third down, which has been the worst in the league in terms of QBR (21) over the last two seasons. Young ranked second in the FBS in yards per attempt (10.4), first downs (107) and passing touchdowns (26) last season.
Fantasy sleeper candidate: WR DJ Chark Jr. posters”>DJ Chark Jr. In 11 games played with the Lions last season, Chark posted four weeks of 14 or more PPR points. In Carolina, he’ll be a vertical stretch target who can also be schemed open on deep crossers in coach Frank Reich’s offense. — Bowen
More: Fantasy football draft rankings
Bold prediction for 2023: Young will lead the league in interceptions thrown. He’s a rookie quarterback with a ton of room for error, no risk of losing the starting job and is playing with an extremely shaky receiver group. — Walder
ESPN FPI’s chances to win NFC West: 7%
Chances to make the playoffs: 19%
Projected wins: 6.8
Strength of schedule: 15th hardest
What do the Rams do the best?
Throw the ball. The Rams have finished in the top five in passing yards per game in three of the past five seasons, and it took the slow-motion disillusion of the Sean McVay-Jared Goff partnership in 2020 and a pile of injuries and personnel gaffes last year for it not to happen in those other two instances. Matthew Stafford averaged 262.7 yards passing through the first six games of 2022, despite being under siege taking 22 sacks before eventually breaking down behind a turnstile of an offensive line. Give him and McVay a modicum of stability up front and Cooper Kupp at receiver to target, and Los Angeles will find ways to air it out. — Dan Greenspan
What is the Rams’ biggest weakness?
Pass rush. With Aaron Donald, the Rams have one heck of a starting point, but the rest of the defensive front is wholly unproven. Despite being limited by injuries, Donald had five sacks last season. Defensive lineman-turned-outside linebacker Michael Hoecht had 4.5 sacks as a spot starter, and that makes him the most accomplished pass-rusher not named Donald on the roster. Byron Young looks like he can make his mark off the edge as a rookie, and Los Angeles could always sign a veteran, but beyond Donald, there is no certainty this defense will get to the quarterback. — Greenspan
Stat to know: Cam Akers is looking to take a big leap for this upcoming season. Akers ended the 2022 season with three straight 100-yard rushing games. Only four Rams players recorded four straight 100-yard rushing games over the past 30 seasons.
Fantasy sleeper candidate: WR Van Jefferson. With Kupp suffering a setback on a hamstring injury, the door is open for Jefferson to see a bump in early-season volume. He’s a late-round add who fits as an intermediate target in the Rams schemed passing attack. — Bowen
More: Matt Bowen’s favorite draft targets (ESPN+)
Bold prediction for 2023: The Rams will trade Donald before the deadline. Barring unexpected first-half success, it just makes too much sense for the Rams to cash in on Donald — who is still great but is 32 years old — rather than running out the clock on his career. — Walder
ESPN FPI’s chances to win AFC South: 12%
Chances to make the playoffs: 17%
Projected wins: 7.1
Strength of schedule: Third easiest
What do the Colts do the best?
Defend against the run. The Colts, led by the interior defensive line duo of DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart, are consistently solid against the run. The defense finished fifth in yards per carry allowed last season (4.1) and was seventh in rush defense expected points added (33.11). The presence of linebacker Zaire Franklin, the NFL’s fourth-leading tackler with 166 tackles last season, plays a big role in this success, too. — Stephen Holder
What is the Colts’ biggest weakness?
Depth. First- and second-year players dominate the Colts’ secondary, the offensive line is thin, and unproven players are occupying key roles at wide receiver. And that’s without the requisite injuries cropping up just yet. The Colts had a relatively healthy training camp and preseason, but the nature of the NFL is such that injuries are inevitable. Will the Colts have enough to weather those setbacks? — Holder
Stat to know: Rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson has the capabilities to extend plays and make the most out of a bad situation. Richardson was sacked on 9.4% of his pressures last season, the seventh-lowest rate of all Power 5 quarterbacks. Plus, his 22 broken tackles was tied with KJ Jefferson for the most of any FBS QB.
Fantasy sleeper candidate: WR Alec Pierce. Richardson is an obvious choice here, but let’s go with Pierce (in non-PPR formats) as a third-level target for the rookie quarterback. Pierce averaged 14.7 yards per catch in 2022 while adding 14 explosive-play receptions. That fits with Richardson’s high-level arm talent. — Bowen
More: Fantasy football players to avoid: The Do Not Draft list (ESPN+)
Bold prediction for 2023: After finishing last in pass block win rate in 2022, the Colts will rebound to a top-half finish. If Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith can rebound to their 2021 form, that would make a big difference after both disappointed in 2022. — Walder
ESPN FPI’s chances to win AFC South: 11%
Chances to make the playoffs: 15%
Projected wins: 6.8
Strength of schedule: Fifth easiest
What do the Texans do the best?
Limit passing offenses. On paper, their secondary could be remarkable if the starting group of cornerbacks, Derek Stingley Jr., Steven Nelson and Tavierre Thomas, pair well with the safety duo of Jalen Pitre and Jimmie Ward in head coach DeMeco Ryans’ scheme. Ryans’ system fits their play style better than under former coach Lovie Smith, and even in that system last season, they had more interceptions (16) than allowed passing touchdowns (15, the league low). — DJ Bien-Aime
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What is the Texans’ biggest weakness?
Wide receiver. The receiver room must prove it can elevate rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. Rookie Tank Dell has shown potential with his quickness, Nico Collins flashes dynamic vertical ability and Robert Woods could be a veteran safety blanket for Stroud. However, consistency was an issue across the group during camp. The talent is there, but the group struggled to consistently get open down the field to create explosive plays. — Bien-Aime
Stat to know: When not under pressure last season at Ohio State, Stroud had the second-highest QBR and the sixth-highest TD-INT ratio. His QBR when not pressured was significantly higher (91.7) than when pressured (37.1). And although Houston did add guard Shaq Mason, this offensive line ranked 17th in pass block win rate and 28th in run block win rate last season.
Fantasy sleeper candidate: WR Nico Collins. A late-round option in 10-12 team leagues, Collins should see a boost in target volume and receiving production with rookie quarterback Stroud now the Texans’ starting quarterback. He’s a long (6-foot-4) receiver with matchup ability. — Bowen
More: Fantasy football ‘do draft’ list (ESPN+)
Bold prediction for 2023: Will Anderson Jr. will rank in the top 10 in pass rush win rate at edge. He was an elite prospect who blew away my draft projections for prospects, and the Texans gave up a ton to get him. Expect him to produce right away. — Walder
ESPN FPI’s chances to win NFC South: 8%
Chances to make the playoffs: 16%
Projected wins: 6.4
Strength of schedule: 10th easiest
What do the Buccaneers do the best?
Catch the football. Even with receiver Russell Gage now out for the season, the Bucs may still have one of the most talented receiving corps in the NFL with Pro Bowlers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, plus speedy rookie Trey Palmer and 5-foot-8 Deven Thompkins, who has the catch radius of someone about a foot taller. Quarterback Baker Mayfield will have options in this offense. — Jenna Laine
What is the Buccaneers’ biggest weakness?
Running the ball. The Buccaneers had 1,308 total rushing yards with 3.4 yards per carry last season — both the worst in the NFL. First-year offensive coordinator Dave Canales has brought in a wide and midzone rushing scheme that could help improve this, but Tampa Bay is going to be fielding another remade offensive line so expect there to be growing pains. — Laine
Stat to know: Mayfield, who’s on his fourth team, will be the Week 1 starter. Since Mayfield’s debut in 2018, he has a 42% completion percentage on throws 20-plus yards downfield, which ranks ninth out of 33 quarterbacks with 100 such attempts in that span. On throws less than 20 yards downfield, Mayfield’s 64% completion percentage ranks 39th of 42 qualifiers.
Fantasy sleeper candidate: RB Sean Tucker. In a Bucs offense that will feature heavy run-game elements and play-action concepts, you could grab Tucker as late-round flier behind starter Rachaad White. The rookie can handle early-down volume and produce between the tackles. — Bowen
More: NFL Nation answers questions for your fantasy draft board
Bold prediction for 2023: Three quarterbacks (Mayfield, Kyle Trask and John Wolford) will start for the Bucs this season. It’s hard to have faith in any of them hanging onto the job. — Walder
ESPN FPI’s chances to win NFC West: 2%
Chances to make the playoffs: 4%
Projected wins: 5.1
Strength of schedule: 13th hardest
What do the Cardinals do the best?
Get to the quarterback. The Cardinals had 14 quarterback pressures in their first two preseason games, including two sacks of Denver quarterback Russell Wilson, in their new scheme under new defensive coordinator Nick Rallis. Arizona has shown, albeit during this preseason, that they can blitz and have the personnel to pressure the quarterback. — Josh Weinfuss
What is the Cardinals’ biggest weakness?
Covering the pass game. The cornerback situation is still in limbo, with younger corners like Marco Wilson, Christian Matthew and Kei’Trel Clark all expected to have significant roles this season. And with the recent trade of safety Isaiah Simmons, how Arizona will handle the nickel is still unknown. There’ll be some growing pains early on, but how Arizona can prevent the big plays will dictate how the secondary will fare. — Weinfuss
Stat to know: Kyler Murray is out at least through Week 4, and the Cardinals released backup Colt McCoy, so Arizona will start Joshua Dobbs or rookie Clayton Tune in Week 1. Tune was selected 139th in this year’s NFL draft. If he gets the start, he would be the lowest-drafted quarterback to start a season opener as a rookie since Randy Hedberg in 1977.
Fantasy sleeper candidate: TE Trey McBride. With Zach Ertz yet to return from a knee injury suffered last season, McBride is a deeper-league target to monitor. The second-year pro caught 20 of 29 targets for 291 yards over the final five weeks of 2022, and he has the receiving traits to work multiple levels of the field. — Bowen
More: Field’s fantasy favorites for the 2023 NFL season (ESPN+)
Bold prediction for 2023: The Cardinals will win in Week 1 against the Commanders … then lose every game for the rest of the season. Looking at this Murray-less roster, this Cardinals team is shaping up to be historically bad. Once Murray is healthy, it will be too late, and the team may decide to simply preserve his health. — Walder