NFC divisional playoffs: Everything you need to know about Seahawks vs. Packers
What to watch for: Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson is winless in three career games at Lambeau Field, including the 2016 game in which he threw a career-worst five interceptions. In seven games overall against the Packers (including playoffs), he has 10 interceptions, his most against a single opponent. In fact, he has fewer interceptions against every team in the NFC West, despite playing each one at least 16 times. And the Packers have made a living off turnover differential this season. At plus-12, they were better than all but two teams. — Rob Demovsky
Bold prediction: The Packers’ Davante Adams will have more than 100 yards receiving and a touchdown. He’s done a lot of his damage this season out of the slot, where he could be matched up against Ugo Amadi (assuming the Seahawks stick with the rookie fourth-round pick as their third cornerback). Additionally, the Packers were first in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate this season while the Seahawks had one of the NFL’s least effective pass-rushes, their seven sacks last week notwithstanding. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers with time to throw and a rookie covering his No. 1 receiver sounds like a bad combo for Seattle. — Brady Henderson
Stat to know: According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Rodgers held onto the ball for 2.88 seconds on average this season, the sixth highest in the NFL, and he may have been doing so to allow his inexperienced receivers a chance to get open. He threw 49.6% of his passes to open receivers (3-plus yards of separation), the third highest percentage in the NFL.
Key matchup: Packers outside linebacker Za’Darius Smith vs. the Seahawks’ interior offensive line. With Smith’s athletic traits and short-area speed, the Packers can bump Smith inside to rush or put him in a two-point stance to work the A gaps. I expect defensive coordinator Mike Pettine to occupy blockers and create one-on-one matchups inside for Smith to rush against Seahawks center Joey Hunt. That’s a matchup advantage for Green Bay. Read more.
Betting nugget: Wilson is 26-13-2 ATS in his career as an underdog (including playoffs), covering 10 of his last 12 games. He is also 10-2 ATS and 7-5 outright in his career as an underdog of at least four points. Read more.
Officiating nugget: Referee Clete Blakeman’s regular-season crew threw the second-fewest flags per game (13.8, one flag more than the Vinovich crew). His regular-season crew threw the NFL’s fewest number of flags for defensive holding, illegal contact and pass interference (29).
Henderson’s pick: Packers 24, Seahawks 21
Demovsky’s pick: Packers 20, Seahawks 17
FPI prediction: GB, 66.3% (by an average of 5.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: From a failed called shot to an improbable comeback … Marshawn Lynch to play more vs. Packers, Pete Carroll says … From injury-prone to injury-free with more than a knock on wood … Forget stats (and 3 measly yards), Packers’ Davante Adams remains a force … Aaron Rodgers, 36, thinks about Super Bowl title No. 2 ‘every day’