NBA betting: Why you shouldn’t overlook the Heat come playoff time
Can the Miami Heat flip the switch again this season, making another run deep into the playoffs and possibly back to the Finals?
Let’s explore.
According to ESPN BET, the Heat are tied with the Knicks for the third-shortest odds to win the East at +1100, far behind the favored Celtics (-125) and Bucks (+310) and just ahead of the Cavaliers (+1200) and 76ers (+1500).
Overall, the Heat are tied with the Mavericks for the ninth-shortest odds to win the Championship at +3000, again far longer odds than the favorites (Celtics +225, Nuggets +375, Clippers +550) in a cluster of lower tier favorites including the Lakers and Timberwolves (+2500) as well as the Knicks (+3500), 76ers (+3500), Cavaliers (+4000) and Warriors (+4000).
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On the surface, this would seem optimistic for the Heat based upon how they’ve played this season. The Heat are currently seeded eighth and on pace to be in the Play-In tournament in the East. They have the 16th-best record in the NBA, currently sporting a 54.7 win percentage, and rank 13th in the league in the Basketball Power Index (BPI) with a score of 1.9 (behind the 12th place Suns at 2.9, ahead of the 14th place Knicks at 1.3).
But, this version of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo-led Heat teams has already demonstrated that their regular season performance doesn’t necessarily correlate with their playoffs outcome. The Heat have advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals in three of the previous four seasons, despite finishing fifth-or worse in the regular season standings three times. In that stretch, they’ve made the NBA Finals twice:
• 2019-20, from the fifth seed in the East and 11th-best record in the NBA
• 2022-23, from the eighth seed and Play-in in the East and 11th-best record in the NBA. Their BPI of -0.5 tied with a Pelicans team that didn’t even make the playoffs for the 16th-best mark in the NBA.
In both of those seasons, the Heat made the Finals by going through the much higher seeded, Giannis Antetokounmpo-led Bucks and Jayson Tatum/Jaylen Brown-led Celtics along the way.
It does appear that this generation of Heat teams has established a history of flipping the switch in the playoffs, playing like an entirely different team than they are in the regular season.
So, the follow-up question becomes… what changes once they get to the playoffs? And can that change happen, yet again, this season?
It all starts with Butler, who Joel Embiid famously dubbed “Himmy Butler” after he dropped 56 points in a Game 4 win over the Bucks last season. Butler joined the Heat in 2019, and in each of their extended playoffs runs he has proven once again that Playoffs Himmy is a much different thing that Regular Season Butler in two key ways: availability and scoring.
The Heat were swept in first round of playoffs in 2020-21, but played at least 18 games and made the conference finals in each other completed season Butler has been in Miami.
In his four completed seasons, Butler has played in an average of 74.8 percent of the Heat’s regular season games, but 97.0 percent (64 of 66) of their playoffs games. Similarly, Butler has played 33.6 MPG in the regular season but increased that to 38.5 MPG in the playoffs. If you do the math, Butler has been on the court for just under 53% of the total regular season minutes available, but for almost 78 percent of the playoffs minutes available. So, if the best availability is availability, Butler improves dramatically on this most-important-ability in the playoffs.
And, in their three extended playoffs runs, Butler has transformed from a very good scorer in the regular season to one of the most unstoppable scorers in the league in the playoffs. His scoring went up all three times, to a dramatic degree in the last two playoffs. In fact, let’s zoom in on those last two playoffs runs.
Butler was an All Star in 2021-22, but not in 2022-23, with averages of 22.2 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 5.4 APG, 0.5 3PG (28.8 3P%), 1.7 SPG, 0.4 BPG and 1.8 TO/G. Strong, All-Star caliber numbers. But in the playoffs?
In those playoffs, Butler averaged 27.1 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 5.3 APG, 1.3 3PG (34.9 3P%), 1.9 SPG, 0.6 BPG and 1.7 TO/G. Not only did his scoring up dramatically, but he crashed the boards harder, he suddenly became a threat from behind the arc, he ramped up his already strong defense (led the playoffs in steals/game in 2021-22) and he became even more of the focal point for creating offense in heavier minutes while somehow turning the ball over even less.
The “Heat Culture” has become such a brand that some feel it’s overused, but there is proof in the pudding. The Heat have demonstrated an incredible proclivity for identifying talent in the late rounds of drafts or even outside of the draft, then developing that talent into productive contributors. Last season’s Finals squad featured a whopping nine undrafted players, including five as part of the main rotation during the Eastern Conference and NBA Finals.
The Heat’s ability to find and incubate talent is a credit to their front office, still led by Pat Riley, as well as their coaching staff with Eric Spoelstra considered one of the best coaches of this generation.
Spoelstra also has done a remarkable job getting the most from his roster come playoffs time. This extends all the way to the top, with the “Playoffs Himmy” phenomenon more pronounced in Miami than it was in any of Butler’s previous NBA stops. But it also extends all the way down the roster, with the Heat’s extended playoffs runs of late featuring several timely contributions from players outside of Butler that have helped them advance.
During the 2020 Finals run, Adebayo and rookie Tyler Herro stepped up in a big way. Adebayo’s run started in the last three games of the conference semis against the Bucks, then maintained at a high level through the Conference Finals with nine-game averages of 21.1 PPG (63.3 FG%), 11.1 RPG, 4.9 APG. Adebayo also delivered elite defense, before an injured wrist slowed him in the Finals.
Herro also caught fire during an eight-game span that began midway through the Conference Finals and extended deep into the Finals. Over that span, he averaged 20.1 PPG to give the Heat another major scoring threat at a time they needed it to get by the Celtics and challenge the Lakers even with Adebayo hurt.
During the 2023 Finals run, the Heat were without third-leading scorer Herro for most of the playoffs due to injury, but had several unheralded players step up. They got sequential, continuous surprise contributions from Max Strus (six game span in the conference semis and finals averaging 15.8 PPG and 3.0 3PG on 49.3 FG%), Gabe Vincent (three game span of 21.0 PPG in the conference semis, followed by a six-game span from late in the conference finals into the NBA Finals averaging 18.8 PPG and 3.5 3PG on 52.6 FG%) and Caleb Martin (19.3 PPG, 3.1 3PG on 60.2 FG% in the conference finals).
In the last four seasons, the Heat have consistently outperformed their regular season record with extended playoffs runs. They’ve made the Conference Finals in three of those four seasons and the NBA Finals twice, with both Finals runs coming in seasons they were lower seeds without home court advantage in the playoffs.
This success has been sparked by Butler, who goes from a solid All-Star caliber player playing about 53% of the available minutes to a First Team All-NBA caliber player that’s on the court about 78% of the time. Sustained playoffs success is often about having a superstar as the foundation to build around, and in the playoffs the Heat have absolutely had that in Butler.
And they’ve gotten consistent, excellent support from a variety of often unlooked for sources with teammates stepping up for multi-game stretches that get the team through crucial situations.
The current team is considered a relative long shot to win the East (+1100), particularly compared with the favored Celtics (-125). But the Heat have faced the Celtics in three of the last four conference finals and defeated them in two of them.
The Celtics brought in strong new talent this season in Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday, but the Heat also brought in more talented “other guys” in Terry Rozier and rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. around their returning Finals core of Butler, Adebayo, Martin and Herro.
There’s value in betting the Heat (11-1) to win the East (for the third time in five seasons)
Outside of the Celtics, the other Eastern powers are all dealing with injuries to key players. The Heat don’t just believe, they know they have what it takes to defeat the Celtics and Bucks in the playoffs, and I think their chances of replicating their playoffs success yet again are significantly better than 11-to-1.