NBA betting: Four picks for Sunday
Now, let’s dig into a few best bets for today’s slate.
Suns, Pistons over 221.5 points: The Suns and Pistons have been around league average so far in both points scored and points allowed, but in this matchup, both teams have strengths on offense that face weaknesses on the opposing defense. The Pistons are bottom-third in the NBA in production allowed to opposing point guards and small forwards, where Devin Booker (Q, ankle) and Kevin Durant dominate. Meanwhile, we just saw Wembanyama torch the Suns for 56 points and 18 rebounds over a two-game stretch, illustrating the Suns’ weakness in the interior — a strong area for the Pistons. ESPN Analytics projects the total for this game at over 225 points.
Wembanyama over 29.5 total points, rebounds and assists: Wembanyama threw down the gauntlet in his last game, dropping 38 points and 10 rebounds on the Suns. This was Wembanyama’s second 20-10 double-double in his past four games, a span in which he has averaged 22.0 PPG, 8.8 RPG and 1.5 APG. The Raptors are solid against opposing power forwards, the position Wembanyama nominally plays, but they are 25th in the NBA in production allowed to opposing centers. Wemby, of course, is one of the biggest physical mismatches in the league and should be able to out-quick the Raptors’ centers while just being too big for their power forwards.
Hornets +12.5 over Mavericks: The Mavericks started the season 4-0 before losing their last matchup in Denver, but their four wins were over teams with a combined record of 8-16. While it’s laudable that they took care of business in those games, it doesn’t necessarily support that they are a dominant team worthy of giving a whopping 12.5 points against the Hornets. ESPN Analytics predicts the Mavericks to win by 8.6 points, but 12.5 points is more than I’d feel comfortable giving in this matchup.
There’s still time to join or create a league in the No. 1 Fantasy basketball game. Your league starts fresh on the first scoring period following your draft.
Create or join a fantasy basketball league on ESPN. Your championship run starts today!
–>
Sign up today!
Shaedon Sharpe over 21.5 points: Sharpe turned in a clutch performance in his last game, hitting huge free throws and shots both late in regulation and in overtime to help the Trail Blazers get the win. Sharpe was considered perhaps the most talented player in his draft class, and with the way he finished last season and stepped up this season after the Anfernee Simons injury, he appears ready to take the next step. Sharpe has gone over 21.5 points in three of his last five games, and faces a Grizzlies defense allowing 24.1 PPG to opposing shooting guards.
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com.
Phoenix Suns at Detroit Pistons
3 p.m. Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Records (against the spread)
Suns: 2-4 (3-3-0)
Pistons: 2-4 (3-3-0)
Line: Suns (-5.5) Total: 221.5
Money Line: Suns (-240), Pistons (+180)
BPI Projection: Suns by 0.7, straight up 52.5%, 225.1 total points.
Injury Report:
Suns: Bradley Beal, (GTD – Back); Devin Booker, (GTD – Ankle); Damion Lee, (OUT – Knee)
Pistons: Alec Burks, (GTD – Forearm); Monte Morris, (OUT – Quadriceps); Isaiah Livers, (OUT – Ankle); Bojan Bogdanovic, (OUT – Calf)
Toronto Raptors at San Antonio Spurs
3:30 p.m. Frost Bank Center, San Antonio
Records (ATS)
Raptors: 2-4 (3-3-0)
Spurs: 3-2 (3-2-0)
Line: Raptors (-3.5) Total: 221.5
Money Line: Raptors (-155), Spurs (+125)
BPI Projection: Raptors by 3.8, straight up 63.3%, 224.6 total points.
Injury Report:
Raptors: Precious Achiuwa, (GTD – Groin); Christian Koloko, (OUT – Illness)
Spurs: Devin Vassell, (OUT – Groin)
Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers
6 p.m. Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland
Records (ATS)
Warriors: 5-1 (3-3-0)
Cavaliers: 2-4 (1-5-0)
Line: Cavaliers (-1.5) Total: 224.5
Money Line: Warriors (+100), Cavaliers (-120)
BPI Projection: Cavaliers by 0.4, straight up 51.6%, 220.5 total points.
Injury Report:
Warriors: Klay Thompson, (GTD – Groin)
Cavaliers: Ricky Rubio, (OUT – Personal); Isaac Okoro, (GTD – Knee); Ty Jerome, (OUT – Ankle)
Charlotte Hornets at Dallas Mavericks
7:30 p.m. American Airlines Center, Dallas
Records (ATS)
Hornets: 2-3 (2-3-0)
Mavericks: 4-1 (3-2-0)
Line: Mavericks (-11.5) Total: 235.5
Money Line: Hornets (+450), Mavericks (-625)
BPI Projection: Mavericks by 8.6, straight up 77.7%, 233.8 total points.
Injury Report:
Hornets: Cody Martin, (GTD – Knee); James Bouknight, (GTD – Knee); Terry Rozier, (GTD – Groin); Miles Bridges, (OUT – Suspension); Frank Ntilikina, (OUT – Lower Leg)
Mavericks: Kyrie Irving, (GTD – Foot); Markieff Morris, (GTD – Illness); Maxi Kleber, (OUT – Toe)
Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trail Blazers
9 p.m. Moda Center, Portland
Records (ATS)
Grizzlies: 0-6 (1-5-0)
Blazers: 3-3 (3-3-0)
Line: Grizzlies (-2.5) Total: 218.5
Money Line: Grizzlies (-140), Blazers (+115)
BPI Projection: Blazers by 0.7, straight up 52.5%, 219.9 total points.
Injury Report:
Grizzlies: Brandon Clarke, (OUT – Achilles); Steven Adams, (OUT – Knee); Santi Aldama, (GTD – Ankle); Derrick Rose, (OUT – Knee); John Konchar, (OUT – Hip); Ja Morant, (OUT – Suspension)
Blazers: Toumani Camara, (GTD – Wrist); Ish Wainright, (OUT – Calf); Scoot Henderson, (OUT – Ankle); Anfernee Simons, (OUT – Thumb)