NBA betting: Four picks for Monday
On the pro side, the NBA has six matchups on the night. Three feature a postseason team against a lottery squad, and non-coincidentally all three have double-digit spreads. Two of the matchups are between two teams playing in the postseason and one is between two squads both headed for the lottery. The lines for the latter three games are much closer, with the largest only 2.5 points. The spread is important for those that prefer player props, as well, because if the game ends up as a blowout there’s a good chance players won’t play their typical minutes and therefore might be less likely to go over their props. Food for thought.
As always, let’s dig deeper into the matchups to identify some good candidates to outperform expectations.
New Orleans Pelicans (-1.5) vs. Phoenix Suns (-110).
The Pelicans are in the midst of an extremely rough bit of scheduling, having faced the Thunder, Bucks and Celtics in their past three games. Though they went 1-2 in those games, they had won five of their previous six and are playing some of the best ball in the league even with Brandon Ingram sidelined. The Suns have also faced the Thunder, Bucks and Celtics in their past nine games, but lost to all three by double figures, including a 25-point blowout to the Thunder in their latest game. Of course, in the game before that they defeated the Nuggets, so it hasn’t been all bad. The Suns have the offensive firepower to match up with any team on any given night, and they are largely healthy with Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal on the court, but the team lacks defense, rebounding and athleticism, which makes it difficult for them to win with any kind of consistency. According to the BPI game predictor, the Pelicans project to win 60.0% of the time with a 2.8 point scoring margin.
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Chicago Bulls-Atlanta Hawks over 221.5 points (-115).
According to ESPN Stats & Information, Bulls games have the highest rate of overs in the NBA this season (41 in 74 games). Meanwhile, the Hawks have combined with their opponents to total more than 221.5 points in each of their past seven games. BPI has the projected total for this game around 238, well over the 221.5-point line.
Boston Celtics over 118.5 total points (-110).
This Celtics are second in the NBA with a 120.9-point scoring average and are facing a Hornets defense that allows 116.9 PPG, the 10th-worst mark in the league. The Celtics have scored 118 or more points in 10 of their past 11 games. BPI projects the Celtics to score 131 points Monday night.
Jalen Duren over 12.5 rebounds (-110).
Duren has averaged 14.1 rebounds over his past seven games, with three games tallying 17 to 23 boards. Monday provides a good opportunity for another big night on the glass for Duren, against a relatively thin Memphis Grizzlies frontcourt. The Grizzlies have allowed opposing centers to grab 15.5 RPG, tied for the fifth-highest mark in the NBA.
Odds provided by ESPN BET. Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com.
Boston Celtics at Charlotte Hornets
7 p.m. Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC
Records (Against the Spread)
Celtics: 58-16 (40-31-3)
Hornets: 18-56 (29-45-0)
Line: Celtics (-17.5) Total: 219.5
Money Line: Celtics (-2500), Hornets (+1100)
BPI Projection: Celtics by 23.3, straight up 98%, 238.9 total points.
Injury Report:
Celtics: Jaden Springer, (GTD – Knee); Jaylen Brown, (GTD – Hand); Kristaps Porzingis, (GTD – Hamstring); JD Davison, (OUT – Ankle)
Hornets: Aleksej Pokusevski, (GTD – Illness); Cody Martin, (OUT – Ankle); LaMelo Ball, (OUT – Ankle); Mark Williams, (OUT – Back); Seth Curry, (OUT – Ankle)
Memphis Grizzlies at Detroit Pistons
7 p.m. Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Records (Against the Spread)
Grizzlies: 24-50 (34-40-0)
Pistons: 13-61 (37-36-1)
Line: Pistons (-2.5) Total: 215.5
Money Line: Grizzlies (+110), Pistons (-130)
BPI Projection: Pistons by 1.2, straight up 54%, 221.9 total points.
Injury Report:
Grizzlies: John Konchar, (GTD – Heel); Santi Aldama, (GTD – Illness); Desmond Bane, (OUT – Back); Vince Williams Jr., (OUT – Knee); Yuta Watanabe, (OUT – Personal); Marcus Smart, (OUT – Finger); Derrick Rose, (OUT – Groin); Ja Morant, (OUT – Shoulder); Ziaire Williams, (OUT – Hip)
Pistons: Cade Cunningham, (GTD – Knee); Marcus Sasser, (GTD – Illness); Taj Gibson, (GTD – Hamstring); Simone Fontecchio, (OUT – Toe); Ausar Thompson, (OUT – Illness); Isaiah Stewart, (OUT – Hamstring); Quentin Grimes, (OUT – Knee); Stanley Umude, (OUT – Ankle)
Brooklyn Nets at Indiana Pacers
7 p.m. Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis
Records (Against the Spread)
Nets: 29-46 (32-40-3)
Pacers: 42-33 (40-33-2)
Line: Pacers (-12.5) Total: 227.5
Money Line: Nets (+550), Pacers (-900)
BPI Projection: Pacers by 10.1, straight up 81%, 235.6 total points.
Injury Report:
Nets: Ben Simmons, (OUT – Back); Dariq Whitehead, (OUT – Lower Leg); Keita Bates-Diop, (OUT – Lower Leg)
Pacers: Bennedict Mathurin, (OUT – Shoulder)
Portland Trail Blazers at Orlando Magic
7 p.m. Amway Center, Orlando
Records (Against the Spread)
Blazers: 19-55 (35-39-0)
Magic: 43-31 (47-27-0)
Line: Magic (-16.5) Total: 210.5
Money Line: Blazers (+1100), Magic (-2500)
BPI Projection: Magic by 13.4, straight up 89%, 218.3 total points.
Injury Report:
Blazers: Jerami Grant, (GTD – Hamstring); Anfernee Simons, (OUT – Knee); Malcolm Brogdon, (OUT – Elbow); Matisse Thybulle, (OUT – Ankle); Shaedon Sharpe, (OUT – Abdomen); Robert Williams III, (OUT – Knee); Toumani Camara, (OUT – Ribs)
Magic: None reported
Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls
8 p.m. United Center, Chicago
Records (Against the Spread)
Hawks: 34-40 (27-47-0)
Bulls: 36-39 (37-37-1)
Line: Bulls (-2.5) Total: 222.5
Money Line: Hawks (+110), Bulls (-130)
BPI Projection: Bulls by 1.9, straight up 57%, 237.7 total points.
Injury Report:
Hawks: Jalen Johnson, (GTD – Ankle); Kobe Bufkin, (GTD – Toe); AJ Griffin, (OUT – Ankle); Mouhamed Gueye, (OUT – Elbow); Onyeka Okongwu, (OUT – Toe); Trae Young, (OUT – Finger); Saddiq Bey, (OUT – Knee)
Bulls: Julian Phillips, (GTD – Foot); Lonzo Ball, (OUT – Knee); Patrick Williams, (OUT – Foot); Zach LaVine, (OUT – Foot)
Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans
8 p.m. Smoothie King Center, New Orleans
Records (Against the Spread)
Suns: 43-31 (32-41-1)
Pelicans: 45-29 (40-33-1)
Line: Pelicans (-1.5) Total: 224.5
Money Line: Suns (+100), Pelicans (-120)
BPI Projection: Pelicans by 2.8, straight up 60%, 232.6 total points.
Injury Report:
Suns: Damion Lee, (OUT – Knee)
Pelicans: Jose Alvarado, (OUT – Oblique); Brandon Ingram, (OUT – Knee)