NBA betting: Four picks for Monday
Let’s dig into the schedule and find some angles and opportunities to win.
Daniel Gafford over 6.5 rebounds and Kyle Kuzma over 5.5 rebounds
I like the odds for both Gafford and Kuzma to exceed their respective rebounding props in a battle of two two-win teams in Mowtown. The Pistons are a top rebounding team, but also rank 25th in true shooting rate. They often miss shots and create defensive rebounding chances. Gafford leads the team with 15.6 rebounding chances per game and Kuzma is second with 9.9. This suggests Gafford and Kuzma are in a good spot to control the glass in a game with a robust point total.
Zion Williamson over 4.5 assists
Williamson is third on the Pelicans with 10.2 potential assists per game. This rate swells to over 11 per game without C.J. McCollum on the court. McCollum listed as out for Monday night’s tilt against the Utah Jazz and Wiliamson, who has dished at least five dimes in five straight, looks poised to extend this streak.
Los Angeles Lakers-Philadelphia 76ers Under 231.5 points.
Both the Lakers and 76ers rank in the top 13 in defensive rating, with the Los Angeles ninth in this metric. While the teams have some special scoring talent on each side, they both have somewhat deliberate offenses (Sixers rank 16th in pace, Lakers rank 14th) that could keep the point total reasonable.
Anthony Davis over 2.5 assists
Sticking with Monday’s marquee matchup, the Lakers’ lack of a traditional point guard has led to increased playmaking from Davis. He has hit this mark in 75% of his games this season and should be tasked with moving the ball against Nick Nurse’s notorious blitzes and doubles in the post.
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics, Odds by ESPN BET
Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons
7 p.m. ET, Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Records (Against the Spread)
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Wizards: 2-14 (7-9-0)
Pistons: 2-14 (7-9-0)
Line: Pistons (-2.5) Total: 236.5
Money Line: Wizards (+120), Pistons (-140)
BPI Projection: Pistons by 2.2, straight up 57.8%, 228.9 total points.
Injury Report:
Wizards: Jordan Poole, (GTD – Ankle); Ryan Rollins, (OUT – Knee); Delon Wright, (OUT – Knee)
Pistons: Monte Morris, (OUT – Quadriceps); Bojan Bogdanovic, (OUT – Calf); Joe Harris, (OUT – Shoulder)
Portland Trail Blazers at Indiana Pacers
7 p.m. ET, Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis
Records (Against the Spread)
Blazers: 4-12 (7-9-0)
Pacers: 9-6 (9-6-0)
Line: Pacers (-12.5) Total: 239.5
Money Line: Blazers (+550), Pacers (-800)
BPI Projection: Pacers by 12.6, straight up 86.3%, 237.8 total points.
Injury Report:
Blazers: Robert Williams III, (OUT – Knee); Anfernee Simons, (OUT – Thumb); Ish Wainright, (OUT – Knee)
Pacers: Aaron Nesmith, (GTD – Wrist)
Los Angeles Lakers at Philadelphia 76ers
7 p.m. ET, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Records (Against the Spread)
Lakers: 10-7 (7-10-0)
76ers: 11-5 (11-5-0)
Line: 76ers (-5.5) Total: 231.5
Money Line: Lakers (+190), 76ers (-220)
BPI Projection: 76ers by 9.2, straight up 79.7%, 227.8 total points.
Injury Report:
Lakers: Anthony Davis, (GTD – Hip); Cam Reddish, (GTD – Groin); LeBron James, (GTD – Calf); Jarred Vanderbilt, (OUT – Heel); Gabe Vincent, (OUT – Knee); Rui Hachimura, (OUT – Nose)
76ers: Danuel House Jr., (GTD – Quadriceps); Jaden Springer, (GTD – Illness); Kelly Oubre Jr., (OUT – Ribs)
New Orleans Pelicans at Utah Jazz
9 p.m. ET Delta Center, Salt Lake City
Records (Against the Spread)
Pelicans: 9-8 (10-6-1)
Jazz: 5-11 (8-8-0)
Line: Pelicans (-5.5) Total: 230.5
Money Line: Pelicans (-190), Jazz (+160)
BPI Projection: Pelicans by 1.9, straight up 56.6%, 231.5 total points.
Injury Report:
Pelicans: CJ McCollum, (OUT – Chest); Trey Murphy III, (OUT – Knee); Matt Ryan, (OUT – Calf)
Jazz: Jordan Clarkson, (GTD – Illness); Lauri Markkanen, (GTD – Hamstring)
Denver Nuggets at LA Clippers
10:30 p.m. ET Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Records (Against the Spread)
Nuggets: 11-6 (6-11-0)
Clippers: 7-8 (6-9-0)
Line: Clippers (-5.5) Total: 220.5
Money Line: Nuggets (+170), Clippers (-200)
BPI Projection: Clippers by 4.9, straight up 67.3%, 226.8 total points.
Injury Report:
Nuggets: Vlatko Cancar, (OUT – Knee); Aaron Gordon, (GTD – Heel); Jamal Murray, (GTD – Hamstring)
Clippers: Mason Plumlee, (OUT – Knee); Brandon Boston Jr., (OUT – Quadriceps)