NBA betting: Five picks for Wednesday
Let’s look closer at this and all the other interesting matchups for angles and opportunities to outperform expectation.
Denver Nuggets (-1.5) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (-105).
This is the fourth matchup in what has been a thus-far-even battle between these two teams this season. Each team has one blowout win, and the third game was a 1-point victory for the Thunder. But the Nuggets enter the game playing generally better, with wins in seven of their past nine games and two straight vs the Thunder’s 5-4 record in their past nine with two straight losses. More importantly, the Thunder will be without Jalen Williams (ankle), and the availability of both Gilgeous-Alexander (GTD, illness) and Chet Holmgren (GTD, ankle) are in question. On the other side, Jokic is also questionable with a sore back, but generally, it looks like the Nuggets may be closer to full strength than the Thunder. In an otherwise fairly even matchup, I’ll let health be the tiebreaker to have me lean Nuggets.
Minnesota Timberwolves (-12.5) vs. Dallas Mavericks (-115).
This is a big number, sparked by the Mavericks being without Luka Doncic (ankle), Kyrie Irving (thumb) or Dereck Lively II (nose) on the night. There is always some danger that the injured team might come out scrappier than the favorites on a random Wednesday in January, but the Timberwolves don’t have any excuse not to roll. After suffering bad losses to two lottery-bound teams (the Hornets and Spurs) last week and seeing their lead in the Western Conference and Northwest Division trimmed to a half-game, the Timberwolves should be focused enough to win comfortably against their shorthanded opponent Wednesday.
Chicago Bulls (-4.5) vs. Charlotte Hornets (-120).
The Hornets have been in free fall since trading Terry Rozier, going 0-4 since with a minus-18.5-point scoring margin in that span. Their only non-double-figures loss was a 7-point loss to the Pistons, the team with the worst record in the NBA. The Bulls, meanwhile, have won seven of their past 12 games, including two wins over the Hornets … both by at least seven points, included in that tally.
Sacramento Kings (+1.5) vs. Miami Heat (-120).
The team on the other side of the Rozier trade, the Heat, are also in a slump right now. The Heat have lost seven straight games by an average margin of 16.3 points per game. Five of those losses were by double figures. The Kings, meanwhile, enter the game on a four-game winning streak, including the first three games on their current road trip. With the current levels of both teams factored in, I like the Kings to cover.
Kevin Durant over 24.5 points (-130).
Durant is in the midst of an odd four-game scoring slump, in which he has averaged only 16.8 PPG. Some of that has been because of unselfishness in the face of a scorching teammate (Devin Booker has averaged 43.5 PPG in that span), but the Suns also lost two of those four games and ultimately expect Durant to provide closer to his season averages than what he has done of late. I have predicted multiple times during this span that Durant would break his slump, so take this with a grain of salt, but this feels like the night. That 24.5-point line is the lowest I’ve seen for Durant in years, and he’s facing his former Nets squad, in Brooklyn, after making headlines by saying he didn’t want or deserve a tribute video from them. This feels like the night for Durant to revert to his normal, hyper-efficient-scoring self.
Odds by ESPN BET. Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com.
Chicago Bulls at Charlotte Hornets
7 p.m. Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC
Records (Against the Spread)
Bulls: 22-26 (24-23-1)
Hornets: 10-35 (16-29-0)
Line: Bulls (-4.5) Total: 217.5
Money Line: Bulls (-175), Hornets (+150)
BPI Projection: Bulls by 4.2, straight up 64%, 230.8 total points.
Injury Report:
Bulls: Dalen Terry, (GTD – Ankle); Zach LaVine, (OUT – Ankle); Patrick Williams, (OUT – Foot); Torrey Craig, (OUT – Heel); Lonzo Ball, (OUT – Knee)
Hornets: LaMelo Ball, (GTD – Ankle); Miles Bridges, (GTD – Elbow); Gordon Hayward, (OUT – Calf); Mark Williams, (OUT – Back); Kyle Lowry, (OUT – Not Injury Related)
Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers
7 p.m. Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland
Records (Against the Spread)
Pistons: 6-40 (21-24-1)
Cavaliers: 28-16 (24-19-1)
Line: Cavaliers (-12.5) Total: 230.5
Money Line: Pistons (+550), Cavaliers (-800)
BPI Projection: Cavaliers by 14.4, straight up 91%, 223.7 total points.
Injury Report:
Pistons: Cade Cunningham, (GTD – Knee); Malcolm Cazalon, (OUT – Ankle); Isaiah Stewart, (OUT – Ankle)
Cavaliers: Darius Garland, (GTD – Jaw); Tristan Thompson, (OUT – Suspension); Ty Jerome, (OUT – Ankle)
LA Clippers at Washington Wizards
7 p.m. Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C.
Records (Against the Spread)
Clippers: 30-15 (25-20-0)
Wizards: 9-37 (22-23-1)
Line: Clippers (-11.5) Total: 236.5
Money Line: Clippers (-700), Wizards (+500)
BPI Projection: Clippers by 11.5, straight up 85%, 237.4 total points.
Injury Report:
Clippers: Moussa Diabate, (OUT – Hand); Ivica Zubac, (OUT – Calf)
Wizards: Isaiah Livers, (OUT – Hip); Landry Shamet, (OUT – Illness)
Sacramento Kings at Miami Heat
7:30 p.m. Kaseya Center, Miami
Records (Against the Spread)
Kings: 27-18 (25-19-1)
Heat: 24-23 (19-27-1)
Line: Heat (-1.5) Total: 232.5
Money Line: Kings (+100), Heat (-120)
BPI Projection: Heat by 0.6, straight up 52%, 227.3 total points.
Injury Report:
Kings: Sasha Vezenkov, (GTD – Ankle)
Heat: Duncan Robinson, (OUT – Concussion); Dru Smith, (OUT – Knee)
New Orleans Pelicans at Houston Rockets
8 p.m. Toyota Center, Houston
Records (Against the Spread)
Pelicans: 26-21 (25-21-1)
Rockets: 22-24 (24-20-2)
Line: Pelicans (-2.5) Total: 232.5
Money Line: Pelicans (-130), Rockets (+110)
BPI Projection: Pelicans by 2.6, straight up 59%, 228.6 total points.
Injury Report:
Pelicans: Herbert Jones, (GTD – Groin)
Rockets: Tari Eason, (OUT – Lower Leg); Victor Oladipo, (OUT – Knee)
Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves
8 p.m. Target Center, Minneapolis
Records (Against the Spread)
Mavericks: 26-21 (25-22-0)
Timberwolves: 33-14 (23-21-3)
Line: Timberwolves (-12.5) Total: 221.5
Money Line: Mavericks (+690), Timberwolves (-1050)
BPI Projection: Timberwolves by 10.7, straight up 83%, 228.2 total points.
Injury Report:
Mavericks: Dante Exum, (GTD – Knee); Derrick Jones Jr., (GTD – Wrist); Dereck Lively II, (OUT – Nose); Kyrie Irving, (OUT – Thumb); Luka Doncic, (OUT – Ankle)
Timberwolves: Mike Conley, (GTD – Hamstring); Jaylen Clark, (OUT – Achilles)
Orlando Magic at San Antonio Spurs
8 p.m. Frost Bank Center, San Antonio
Records (Against the Spread)
Magic: 24-23 (29-18-0)
Spurs: 10-37 (22-24-1)
Line: Magic (-4.5) Total: 228.5
Money Line: Magic (-190), Spurs (+160)
BPI Projection: Magic by 4.2, straight up 64%, 233.3 total points.
Injury Report:
Magic: Gary Harris, (OUT – Calf)
Spurs: Keldon Johnson, (GTD – Elbow); Zach Collins, (GTD – Ankle); Charles Bassey, (OUT – Knee)
Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder
8 p.m. Paycom Center, Oklahoma City
Records (Against the Spread)
Nuggets: 33-15 (20-26-2)
Thunder: 32-15 (30-16-1)
Line: Thunder (-1.5) Total: 227.5
Money Line: Nuggets (+100), Thunder (-120)
BPI Projection: Thunder by 2.2, straight up 58%, 232.5 total points.
Injury Report:
Nuggets: Nikola Jokic, (GTD – Back); Julian Strawther, (OUT – Knee); Vlatko Cancar, (OUT – Knee)
Thunder: Chet Holmgren, (GTD – Ankle); Luguentz Dort, (GTD – Ankle); Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, (GTD – Illness); Isaiah Joe, (OUT – Undisclosed); Jalen Williams, (OUT – Ankle)
Phoenix Suns at Brooklyn Nets
8:30 p.m. Barclays Center, New York
Records (Against the Spread)
Suns: 27-20 (18-28-1)
Nets: 19-27 (22-22-2)
Line: Suns (-3.5) Total: 233.5
Money Line: Suns (-145), Nets (+125)
BPI Projection: Suns by 1.2, straight up 54%, 232.1 total points.
Injury Report:
Suns: Bol Bol, (GTD – Foot); Grayson Allen, (GTD – Ankle); Damion Lee, (OUT – Knee)
Nets: Ben Simmons, (GTD – Knee); Day’Ron Sharpe, (GTD – Knee); Dorian Finney-Smith, (OUT – Ankle); Dariq Whitehead, (OUT – Lower Leg)
Milwaukee Bucks at Portland Trail Blazers
10 p.m. Moda Center, Portland
Records (Against the Spread)
Bucks: 32-15 (18-29-0)
Blazers: 14-33 (22-25-0)
Line: Bucks (-10.5) Total: 237.5
Money Line: Bucks (-490), Blazers (+380)
BPI Projection: Bucks by 8.3, straight up 77%, 236.3 total points.
Injury Report:
Bucks: None reported
Blazers: Shaedon Sharpe, (OUT – Abdomen); Moses Brown, (OUT – Wrist); Robert Williams III, (OUT – Knee)