NBA betting: Five picks for Wednesday
We also get another matchup of the two Rookie of the Year co-front-runners with Victor Wembanyama facing off against Chet Holmgren. Let’s dig into the action and find some angles to explore for the midweek.
Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5 points over Milwaukee Bucks (-120). This is tricky, because it’s not unusual to see a team outperform expectation in their first game after firing their previous head coach. With that said, the Cavaliers are the hottest team in the NBA right now, and have won eight straight games, including a 40-point demolition of the Bucks just last week. According to the ESPN Analytics game predictor, the Cavaliers should actually be favored by 1.8 points outright, let alone getting 7.5 points on top.
Anthony Edwards over 34.5 total points + assists (-105). Edwards is coming off one of the oddest games of his career. He entered Monday’s game against the Hornets listed as questionable to play due to illness. He played, but hardly took any shots and set a new career-best with 11 assists as he tried to funnel shots to Karl-Anthony Towns. Towns broke the franchise record with 64 points, but the Timberwolves lost and head coach Chris Finch publicly ripped the team for playing the wrong way.
I expect Edwards to come out aggressive on Wednesday, bouncing back to his normal high-volume usage. His opponents, the Wizards, allow the second-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards, influenced heavily by them allowing the most assists per game to the position.
Brandon Miller over 16.5 points (-125). Miller is in the midst of the best scoring stretch of his young career. He has scored at least 23 points in three straight games, and is averaging 24.7 PPG during that stretch. With yesterday’s trade sending Terry Rozier to the Heat, Miller should have even more of a green light on Wednesday against a weak Pistons defense.
Kevin Durant over 29.5 points (-110). This pick is largely based on the zone that Durant is in right now. I’ve watched each of the Suns’ last two games, both of which he scored at least 40 points in.
Durant is in one of those scorching-hot shooting spells when his jumpers don’t even seem to hit the rim on their way through the net. In his last game, every time he touched the ball down the stretch his shot was money, including on his double-clutch game-winner with time running out. On Wednesday, Durant faces a Mavericks defense that allows the third-most points in the NBA to opposing power forwards.
Victor Wembanyama over 23.5 total points (-105). Lost in Joel Embiid’s massive 70-point scoring effort on Monday was that Wembanyama quietly dropped 33 points in 28 minutes. Wembanyama is scoring at an absurd point-per-minute pace in his past 11 games, averaging 24.9 PPG in 25.1 MPG. Wembanyama has also shown a penchant for showing up big in marquee matchups. He dropped 33 against Embiid on Monday; he hit Giannis’ Bucks for 27 points in 26 minutes in his first game of the New Year; and he blasted LeBron James and Anthony Davis’ Lakers for 30 points in 32 minutes last month. Wemby only scored eight points in his first meeting against Holmgren, but that was back in early November when he was still getting used to the NBA.
I’m expecting a big game from him, against his main Rookie of the Year rival, on Wednesday night.
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com.
Records (Against the Spread)
Hornets: 10-31 (16-25-0)
Pistons: 4-39 (19-23-1)
Line: Pistons (-2.5) Total: 230.5
Money Line: Hornets (+120), Pistons (-145)
BPI Projection: Pistons by 3.8, straight up 63%, 232.0 total points.
Injury Report:
Hornets: Cody Martin, (GTD – Knee); Gordon Hayward, (OUT – Calf)
Pistons: Malcolm Cazalon, (OUT – Ankle); Cade Cunningham, (GTD – Knee)
Records (Against the Spread)
Timberwolves: 30-13 (21-19-3)
Wizards: 7-35 (20-21-1)
Line: Timberwolves (-10.5) Total: 229.5
Money Line: Timberwolves (-600), Wizards (+450)
BPI Projection: Timberwolves by 8.5, straight up 77%, 228.9 total points.
Injury Report:
Timberwolves: Jaylen Clark, (OUT – Achilles)
Wizards: None reported
Records (Against the Spread)
Grizzlies: 16-27 (18-25-0)
Heat: 24-19 (19-23-1)
Line: Heat (-10.5) Total: 213.5
Money Line: Grizzlies (+380), Heat (-500)
BPI Projection: Heat by 5.1, straight up 68%, 219.8 total points.
Injury Report:
Grizzlies: Derrick Rose, (OUT – Hamstring); Santi Aldama, (OUT – Knee); Jake LaRavia, (OUT – Ankle); Brandon Clarke, (OUT – Achilles); Marcus Smart, (OUT – Finger); Desmond Bane, (OUT – Ankle)
Heat: Haywood Highsmith, (GTD – Foot); Jaime Jaquez Jr., (GTD – Groin); Terry Rozier, (GTD – Not Injury Related); Dru Smith, (OUT – Knee)
Records (Against the Spread)
Blazers: 12-31 (20-23-0)
Rockets: 20-22 (21-19-2)
Line: Rockets (-10.5) Total: 221.5
Money Line: Blazers (+400), Rockets (-525)
BPI Projection: Rockets by 8.2, straight up 77%, 220.5 total points.
Injury Report:
Blazers: Shaedon Sharpe, (OUT – Abdomen)
Rockets: Jalen Green, (GTD – Illness); Reggie Bullock Jr., (GTD – Back); Tari Eason, (OUT – Lower Leg); Victor Oladipo, (OUT – Knee)
Records (Against the Spread)
Cavaliers: 26-15 (22-18-1)
Bucks: 30-13 (16-27-0)
Line: Bucks (-7.5) Total: 236.5
Money Line: Cavaliers (+230), Bucks (-280)
BPI Projection: Cavaliers by 1.8, straight up 56%, 234.3 total points.
Injury Report:
Cavaliers: Caris LeVert, (GTD – Wrist); Emoni Bates, (OUT – Suspension); Ty Jerome, (OUT – Ankle)
Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, (GTD – Shoulder)
Records (Against the Spread)
Suns: 25-18 (16-26-1)
Mavericks: 24-19 (23-20-0)
Line: Suns (-2.5) Total: 240.5
Money Line: Suns (-140), Mavericks (+120)
BPI Projection: Mavericks by 0.3, straight up 51%, 237.7 total points.
Injury Report:
Suns: Eric Gordon, (GTD – Wrist); Damion Lee, (OUT – Knee)
Mavericks: Dante Exum, (GTD – Heel); Kyrie Irving, (GTD – Thumb); Seth Curry, (GTD – Ankle)
Records (Against the Spread)
Thunder: 30-13 (28-14-1)
Spurs: 8-35 (20-22-1)
Line: Thunder (-8.5) Total: 242.5
Money Line: Thunder (-320), Spurs (+260)
BPI Projection: Thunder by 8.6, straight up 77%, 242.8 total points.
Injury Report:
Thunder: None reported
Spurs: Sidy Cissoko, (OUT – Ankle)
Records (Against the Spread)
Hawks: 18-25 (11-32-0)
Warriors: 18-22 (18-21-1)
Line: Warriors (-6.5) Total: 235.5
Money Line: Hawks (+210), Warriors (-250)
BPI Projection: Warriors by 7.6, straight up 74%, 240.6 total points.
Injury Report:
Hawks: Bruno Fernando, (GTD – Back); Vit Krejci, (OUT – Shoulder); Wesley Matthews, (OUT – Calf); Mouhamed Gueye, (OUT – Back)
Warriors: Brandin Podziemski, (GTD – Illness); Moses Moody, (OUT – Calf); Gary Payton II, (OUT – Hamstring)