NBA betting: Five picks for Sunday’s slate
While the sports world waits for the NCAA brackets to be released today, keep in mind that the NBA still has a busy schedule on tap as well. The action begins with a big East-West showdown with the Bucks hosting the Suns at 1 p.m. ET, then continues through the day and finishes with the Clippers hosting the Hawks at 9:30 PM ET. As always, let’s dig into the matchups and identify some angles of interest for players and teams with a good chance to outperform expectation.
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Suns and Bucks over 225.5 points (-120). The Bucks came out of the All-Star Break on a defensive tear, allowing their first six opponents to average only 98.7 PPG. That defense has since fallen by the wayside, with their past five opponents averaging 119.8 PPG. The Suns’ defense hasn’t been much better; they allowed their seven previous opponents to average 115.9 PPG before holding the moribund Hornets in check in their most recent game. The BPI Game Predictor projects a total of 239.0 total points scored in this game, well over the 225.5 point line.
Nuggets -3.5 over Mavericks (-110). Luka Doncic is questionable to play on Sunday with a hamstring injury, but the way the Nuggets are playing it may not matter whether he’s on the court or not. The Nuggets are the hottest team in the NBA right now, winners of 11 of their last 12 games with four of their last six wins by double-figures. The Mavericks are 4-4 in their past eight games and 5-6 in their past 11, most of which with Doncic on the court. These two teams have played twice this season, and the Nuggets are 2-0 with both wins coming by double figures.
Celtics -10.5 over Wizards (-120). The Celtics have the best record in the NBA and have won 15 of their past 17 games overall. Their past 10 wins have each come by double figures by an average of 24.2 PPG. The Wizards have the worst record in the NBA and have lost 19 of their past 21 games. Their past six losses have all come by double figures by an average of 17.3 PPG. The BPI Game Predictor projects the Celtics to win by 18.1 points on Sunday.
Paolo Banchero over 6.5 assists (+115). Banchero has been dishing the ball more of late, particularly in victories over teams on pace for the lottery. The Magic are 3-2 in their last five games with all three wins coming against teams headed for the lottery and both losses against teams headed for the postseason. While Banchero only averaged 3.5 APG in the two losses, he has averaged 9.0 APG in the three wins. One of those wins came in their last outing, against the Raptors on Friday, where Banchero dished eight assists in a 10-point win.
Dejounte Murray over 24.5 points (-125). Murray has been scorching in his past four games, all against Western Conference teams with three games on the road. In that span, Murray has average 34.3 PPG on 48.5 FG% and 44.7 3P%, with at least 33 points in three of the four games. The Clippers are a solid defense, but merely average in points allowed to opposing point guards (15th out of 30 NBA teams with 24.0 PPG allowed to the position).
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com.
Phoenix Suns at Milwaukee Bucks
1:00 p.m. Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee
Records (Against the Spread)
Suns: 39-28 (28-38-1)
Bucks: 43-24 (29-38-0)
Line: Bucks (-2.5) Total: 225.5
Money Line: Suns (+115), Bucks (-135)
BPI Projection: Bucks by 1.1, straight up 54%, 239.0 total points.
Injury Report:
Suns: Damion Lee, (OUT – Knee); Josh Okogie, (OUT – Abdomen)
Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, (GTD – Hamstring); Malik Beasley, (GTD – Back); MarJon Beauchamp, (GTD – Back)
Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons
3:00 p.m. Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Records (Against the Spread)
Heat: 36-30 (32-33-1)
Pistons: 12-54 (33-32-1)
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Line: Heat (-6.5) Total: 214.5
Money Line: Heat (-270), Pistons (+220)
BPI Projection: Heat by 4.6, straight up 66%, 220.7 total points.
Injury Report:
Heat: Jimmy Butler, (GTD – Foot); Nikola Jovic, (OUT – Hamstring); Kevin Love, (OUT – Heel); Tyler Herro, (OUT – Foot); Josh Richardson, (OUT – Shoulder)
Pistons: Cade Cunningham, (GTD – Knee); Ausar Thompson, (OUT – Illness); Quentin Grimes, (OUT – Knee)
Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks
3:30 p.m. American Airlines Center, Dallas
Records (Against the Spread)
Nuggets: 47-20 (31-34-2)
Mavericks: 38-29 (38-29-0)
Line: Nuggets (-3.5) Total: 229.5
Money Line: Nuggets (-165), Mavericks (+140)
BPI Projection: Mavericks by 0.9, straight up 53%, 230.5 total points.
Injury Report:
Nuggets: Vlatko Cancar, (OUT – Knee)
Mavericks: Dante Exum, (GTD – Foot); Luka Doncic, (GTD – Hamstring); Brandon Williams, (OUT – Wrist); Josh Green, (OUT – Ankle)
Toronto Raptors at Orlando Magic
6:00 p.m. Amway Center, Orlando
Records (Against the Spread)
Raptors: 23-44 (31-36-0)
Magic: 39-28 (43-24-0)
Line: Magic (-12.5) Total: 216.5
Money Line: Raptors (+550), Magic (-780)
BPI Projection: Magic by 10.7, straight up 83%, 227.7 total points.
Injury Report:
Raptors: D.J. Carton, (OUT – Ankle); Chris Boucher, (OUT – Knee); Jakob Poeltl, (OUT – Finger); RJ Barrett, (OUT – Personal); Scottie Barnes, (OUT – Hand)
Magic: None reported
Boston Celtics at Washington Wizards
6:00 p.m. Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C.
Records (Against the Spread)
Celtics: 52-14 (35-28-3)
Wizards: 11-56 (30-36-1)
Line: Celtics (-10.5) Total: 228.5
Money Line: Celtics (-520), Wizards (+395)
BPI Projection: Celtics by 18.1, straight up 95%, 234.8 total points.
Injury Report:
Celtics: Jaylen Brown, (GTD – Ankle); Jayson Tatum, (GTD – Ankle); Derrick White, (OUT – Hand); Kristaps Porzingis, (OUT – Hamstring)
Wizards: Deni Avdija, (GTD – Knee); Landry Shamet, (GTD – Calf); Marvin Bagley III, (GTD – Back); Tyus Jones, (GTD – Back); Isaiah Livers, (OUT – Hip)
Brooklyn Nets at San Antonio Spurs
7:00 p.m. Frost Bank Center, San Antonio
Records (Against the Spread)
Nets: 26-41 (29-35-3)
Spurs: 14-53 (32-34-1)
Line: Spurs (-2.5) Total: 218.5
Money Line: Nets (+105), Spurs (-125)
BPI Projection: Nets by 1.2, straight up 54%, 228.9 total points.
Injury Report:
Nets: Jacob Gilyard, (GTD – Undisclosed); Ben Simmons, (OUT – Back); Dariq Whitehead, (OUT – Lower Leg)
Spurs: Cedi Osman, (GTD – Ankle); Charles Bassey, (OUT – Knee)
Atlanta Hawks at LA Clippers
9:30 p.m. Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Records (Against the Spread)
Hawks: 29-37 (22-44-0)
Clippers: 42-24 (33-33-0)
Line: Clippers (-9.5) Total: 220.5
Money Line: Hawks (+320), Clippers (-400)
BPI Projection: Clippers by 9.5, straight up 80%, 236.0 total points.
Injury Report:
Hawks: Seth Lundy, (GTD – Back); Kobe Bufkin, (OUT – Toe); Onyeka Okongwu, (OUT – Toe); Mouhamed Gueye, (OUT – Elbow); Trae Young, (OUT – Finger); Saddiq Bey, (OUT – Knee)
Clippers: James Harden, (GTD – Shoulder); Norman Powell, (GTD – Lower Leg); Russell Westbrook, (OUT – Hand)