NBA betting: Five picks for Sunday
This breaks down nicely for betting purposes. Exactly half of the teams still have a lot to play for to determine their postseason seeding, while the other half are effectively done already. The sportsbooks know this, too, so there are some really big spreads on the board today. For the last time this regular season, let’s dig in and find some opportunities for teams or players to outperform expectation.
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Phoenix Suns +1.5 over Minnesota Timberwolves (-110). This is one of the games where both teams have postseason incentive to perform. The Timberwolves are in a 3-way tie for the top seed in the West, but the Suns are playing to avoid the play-in and make it into the playoffs. The Suns have also owned this matchup this season, winning both previous games against the Timberwolves by double-digits, including a 10-point win just nine days ago. Anthony Edwards has struggled of late by his standards, averaging “only” 23.1 PPG on 42.3 FG% in his last 12 outings, well down from his season averages of 26.1 PPG on 46.1 FG%. More importantly, he is listed as a game time decision due to illness. The BPI game predictor has this one as close, with the Wolves favored but by a single point. Given a toss-up matchup, I’ll take the points, particularly for the team that has had the most success in this season’s head-to-heads.
Memphis Grizzlies +12.5 over Denver Nuggets (-115). If the Nuggets play their starters and try to win, they should cover. But therein lies the rub: almost the entire Nuggets rotation is listed as “Game Time Decisions” for Sunday. This includes Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Reggie Jackson and backup center Zeke Nnaji. While the Nuggets are technically still alive for the one seed, the tiebreakers make it very unlikely they achieve it. Plus, as the defending champs, the Nuggets may feel less need to push for the top seed than the Thunder (who face a Mavericks team that is likely to rest their main players) or the Timberwolves. This is a risky play, but I’m betting the Nuggets rest their guys and thus the Grizzlies, who have already declared their own starters out for Sunday but are scrappy and playing at home, should have a solid chance to keep the game competitive.
Los Angeles Lakers +3.5 points over New Orleans Pelicans (-115). This is another game where both teams have postseason incentives. The Pelicans can avoid the play-in with a win, while the Lakers are trying to stay in the 7-8 play-in game as opposed to slipping to the ninth seed and a one-and-done matchup against the dangerous Warriors. All three games in this series have been blowouts, with the Lakers winning their two by a combined 61 points and the Pelicans getting their win by 20. Anthony Davis (eye) is probable to play, which would allow the Lakers to be close to full strength. For the Pelicans, Brandon Ingram (knee) is listed as a game time decision, but he hasn’t played since March 21 and even if he returns it’s unclear that he could handle anywhere near his typical minutes and workload. In essentially a playoffs game, I’ll take LeBron and the Lakers to at least keep it close, if not to win outright.
Damian Lillard over 6.5 assists (-110). Lillard (probable, adductor) is expected to return to the Bucks’ lineup on Sunday for a game against the Magic, and the Bucks could still finish anywhere from the second seed to the fourth seed. The team needs a win and Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) is out. This typically means Dame Time, but in Giannis’ absences Lillard has upped his distribution as much as his scoring. In the last four games Lillard has played in with Giannis out, he has 37 total assists with at least six assists in each game. This includes a nine-assist effort just four days ago against the same Magic squad he faces Sunday. Lillard has 17 assists spread over his two matchups against the Magic this season.
Utah Jazz +8.5 over Golden State Warriors (-115). Though the Warriors are technically still alive for the eighth seed, it is relatively unlikely they could get it. More importantly, head coach Steve Kerr said on Friday he would rest several starters in today’s finale… and each of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Jonathan Kuminga and Chris Paul are listed as game-time decisions. While a full strength Warriors team would’ve been expected to blow the depleted Jazz out, if the Warriors sit their guys the Jazz might even be favored by opening tip.
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com.
Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics
1:00 p.m. TD Garden, Boston
Records (Against the Spread)
Wizards: 15-66 (36-43-2)
Celtics: 63-18 (43-35-3)
Line: Celtics (-9.5) Total: 227.5
Money Line: Wizards (+320), Celtics (-425)
BPI Projection: Celtics by 14.5, straight up 87%, 223.9 total points.
Injury Report:
Wizards: None reported
Celtics: Al Horford, (OUT – Toe); Derrick White, (OUT – Ankle); Jaylen Brown, (OUT – Rest); Jayson Tatum, (OUT – Rest); Jrue Holiday, (OUT – Knee); Kristaps Porzingis, (OUT – Rest)
Charlotte Hornets at Cleveland Cavaliers
1:00 p.m. Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland
Records (Against the Spread)
Hornets: 20-61 (33-48-0)
Cavaliers: 48-33 (37-43-1)
Line: Cavaliers (-13.5) Total: 209.5
Money Line: Hornets (+600), Cavaliers (-1000)
BPI Projection: Cavaliers by 11, straight up 81%, 201.6 total points.
Injury Report:
Hornets: Davis Bertans, (GTD – Achilles); Grant Williams, (GTD – Ankle); Miles Bridges, (NA – Wrist); Nick Richards, (GTD – Foot); Cody Martin, (OUT – Ankle); LaMelo Ball, (OUT – Ankle); Mark Williams, (OUT – Back); Seth Curry, (OUT – Ankle)
Cavaliers: Darius Garland, (GTD – Back); Caris LeVert, (OUT – Knee); Dean Wade, (OUT – Knee); Donovan Mitchell, (OUT – Knee); Sam Merrill, (OUT – Neck); Ty Jerome, (OUT – Ankle)
Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers
1:00 p.m. Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis
Records (Against the Spread)
Hawks: 36-45 (29-52-0)
Pacers: 46-35 (43-36-2)
Line: Pacers (-13.5) Total: 239.5
Money Line: Hawks (+640), Pacers (-950)
BPI Projection: Pacers by 7.3, straight up 73%, 224.7 total points.
Injury Report:
Hawks: Clint Capela, (GTD – Rest); Seth Lundy, (OUT – Ankle); Wesley Matthews, (OUT – Hamstring); Jalen Johnson, (OUT – Ankle); Onyeka Okongwu, (OUT – Toe); Saddiq Bey, (OUT – Knee)
Pacers: Isaiah Jackson, (GTD – Hamstring); Jalen Smith, (NA – Ankle); Obi Toppin, (GTD – Ankle); Bennedict Mathurin, (OUT – Shoulder)
Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat
1:00 p.m. Kaseya Center, Miami
Records (Against the Spread)
Raptors: 25-56 (35-46-0)
Heat: 45-36 (40-39-2)
Line: Heat (-15.5) Total: 220.5
Money Line: Raptors (+850), Heat (-1400)
BPI Projection: Heat by 16, straight up 89%, 205.4 total points.
Injury Report:
Raptors: Chris Boucher, (OUT – Knee); D.J. Carton, (OUT – Ankle); Immanuel Quickley, (OUT – Groin); Jakob Poeltl, (OUT – Finger); Jontay Porter, (OUT – Personal); Scottie Barnes, (OUT – Hand)
Heat: Duncan Robinson, (GTD – Back); Terry Rozier, (OUT – Neck); Josh Richardson, (OUT – Shoulder)
Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks
1:00 p.m. Madison Square Garden, New York
Records (Against the Spread)
Bulls: 39-42 (40-40-1)
Knicks: 49-32 (44-36-1)
Line: Knicks (-15.5) Total: 217.5
Money Line: Bulls (+800), Knicks (-1600)
BPI Projection: Knicks by 7.7, straight up 74%, 214.0 total points.
Injury Report:
Bulls: Ayo Dosunmu, (GTD – Quadriceps); Onuralp Bitim, (GTD – Wrist); Andre Drummond, (GTD – Ankle); Julian Phillips, (OUT – Foot); Lonzo Ball, (OUT – Knee); Patrick Williams, (OUT – Foot); Zach LaVine, (OUT – Foot)
Knicks: Duane Washington Jr., (GTD – Knee); Julius Randle, (OUT – Shoulder)
Milwaukee Bucks at Orlando Magic
1:00 p.m. Amway Center, Orlando
Records (Against the Spread)
Bucks: 49-32 (35-46-0)
Magic: 46-35 (49-32-0)
Line: Magic (-5.5) Total: 214.5
Money Line: Bucks (+170), Magic (-200)
BPI Projection: Magic by 8.4, straight up 75%, 204.3 total points.
Injury Report:
Bucks: Damian Lillard, (GTD – Thigh); MarJon Beauchamp, (GTD – Ankle); Thanasis Antetokounmpo, (GTD – Hamstring); AJ Green, (OUT – Ankle); Giannis Antetokounmpo, (OUT – Calf)
Magic: Wendell Carter Jr., (GTD – Back)
Brooklyn Nets at Philadelphia 76ers
1:00 p.m. Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Records (Against the Spread)
Nets: 32-49 (34-43-4)
76ers: 46-35 (47-34-0)
Line: 76ers (-16.5) Total: 214.5
Money Line: Nets (+800), 76ers (-1600)
BPI Projection: 76ers by 7.5, straight up 73%, 208.0 total points.
Injury Report:
Nets: Ben Simmons, (OUT – Back); Cameron Johnson, (OUT – Toe); Dariq Whitehead, (OUT – Lower Leg); Day’Ron Sharpe, (OUT – Wrist); Dennis Schroder, (OUT – Achilles); Dennis Smith Jr., (OUT – Hip); Dorian Finney-Smith, (OUT – Knee); Keita Bates-Diop, (OUT – Lower Leg)
76ers: De’Anthony Melton, (GTD – Back); Joel Embiid, (GTD – Knee); KJ Martin, (GTD – Toe); Robert Covington, (OUT – Knee)
Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies
3:30 p.m. FedExForum, Memphis
Records (Against the Spread)
Nuggets: 56-25 (37-42-2)
Grizzlies: 27-54 (39-42-0)
Line: Nuggets (-13.5) Total: 216.5
Money Line: Nuggets (-800), Grizzlies (+500)
BPI Projection: Nuggets by 7.8, straight up 74%, 202.6 total points.
Injury Report:
Nuggets: Aaron Gordon, (NA – Foot); Collin Gillespie, (GTD – Knee); Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, (NA – Shoulder); Michael Porter Jr., (GTD – Illness); Nikola Jokic, (NA – Hip); Reggie Jackson, (NA – Calf); Zeke Nnaji, (NA – Groin); Vlatko Cancar, (OUT – Knee)
Grizzlies: Brandon Clarke, (GTD – Hand); Derrick Rose, (OUT – Groin); Desmond Bane, (OUT – Back); Ja Morant, (OUT – Shoulder); Jaren Jackson Jr., (OUT – Quadriceps); John Konchar, (OUT – Heel); Lamar Stevens, (GTD – Groin); Luke Kennard, (OUT – Knee); Marcus Smart, (OUT – Finger); Santi Aldama, (OUT – Foot)
Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves
3:30 p.m. Target Center, Minneapolis
Records (Against the Spread)
Suns: 48-33 (36-44-1)
Timberwolves: 56-25 (40-38-3)
Line: Timberwolves (-1.5) Total: 217.5
Money Line: Suns (+105), Timberwolves (-125)
BPI Projection: Timberwolves by 1, straight up 53%, 217.6 total points.
Injury Report:
Suns: Drew Eubanks, (NA – Ankle); Damion Lee, (OUT – Knee)
Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards, (NA – Illness); Karl-Anthony Towns, (NA – Knee); Jaylen Clark, (OUT – Achilles)
Los Angeles Lakers at New Orleans Pelicans
3:30 p.m. Smoothie King Center, New Orleans
Records (Against the Spread)
Lakers: 46-35 (37-44-0)
Pelicans: 49-32 (43-37-1)
Line: Pelicans (-3.5) Total: 230.5
Money Line: Lakers (+125), Pelicans (-145)
BPI Projection: Pelicans by 2.4, straight up 58%, 228.9 total points.
Injury Report:
Lakers: Anthony Davis, (NA – Eye); Christian Wood, (OUT – Knee); Jarred Vanderbilt, (OUT – Foot); Jalen Hood-Schifino, (OUT – Back)
Pelicans: Brandon Ingram, (GTD – Knee); Naji Marshall, (GTD – Shoulder)
Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder
3:30 p.m. Paycom Center, Oklahoma City
Records (Against the Spread)
Mavericks: 50-31 (49-32-0)
Thunder: 56-25 (45-35-1)
Line: Thunder (-19.5) Total: 224.5
Money Line: Mavericks (+1300), Thunder (-3000)
BPI Projection: Thunder by 18.2, straight up 92%, 210.5 total points.
Injury Report:
Mavericks: Daniel Gafford, (NA – Elbow); Maxi Kleber, (NA – Back); Dante Exum, (NA – Foot); Dereck Lively II, (OUT – Knee); Derrick Jones Jr., (OUT – Shoulder); Greg Brown III, (OUT – Personal); Kyrie Irving, (OUT – Hamstring); Luka Doncic, (OUT – Ankle); P.J. Washington, (OUT – Ankle)
Thunder: None reported
Detroit Pistons at San Antonio Spurs
3:30 p.m. Frost Bank Center, San Antonio
Records (Against the Spread)
Pistons: 14-67 (39-40-2)
Spurs: 21-60 (42-38-1)
Line: Spurs (-4.5) Total: 215.5
Money Line: Pistons (+170), Spurs (-200)
BPI Projection: Spurs by 2.3, straight up 58%, 220.0 total points.
Injury Report:
Pistons: Cade Cunningham, (GTD – Knee); Jalen Duren, (GTD – Back); Simone Fontecchio, (GTD – Toe); Ausar Thompson, (OUT – Illness); Isaiah Stewart, (OUT – Hamstring); Quentin Grimes, (OUT – Knee); Stanley Umude, (OUT – Ankle)
Spurs: Zach Collins, (GTD – Thumb); Cedi Osman, (OUT – Ankle); Charles Bassey, (OUT – Knee); Devin Vassell, (OUT – Foot); Dominick Barlow, (OUT – Knee); Jeremy Sochan, (OUT – Ankle); Keldon Johnson, (OUT – Foot); Malaki Branham, (OUT – Concussion); Victor Wembanyama, (OUT – Ankle)
Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors
3:30 p.m. Chase Center, San Francisco
Records (Against the Spread)
Jazz: 31-50 (41-40-0)
Warriors: 45-36 (42-37-2)
Line: Warriors (-8.5) Total: 222.5
Money Line: Jazz (+270), Warriors (-340)
BPI Projection: Warriors by 9.1, straight up 77%, 222.4 total points.
Injury Report:
Jazz: Collin Sexton, (GTD – Illness); John Collins, (OUT – Back); Jordan Clarkson, (OUT – Back); Kris Dunn, (OUT – Foot); Lauri Markkanen, (OUT – Shoulder); Walker Kessler, (OUT – Nose)
Warriors: Javonte Green, (GTD – Rest); Chris Paul, (NA – Hamstring); Draymond Green, (NA – Knee); Jonathan Kuminga, (GTD – Pelvis); Klay Thompson, (NA – Knee); Stephen Curry, (NA – Ankle); Gary Payton II, (GTD – Calf)
Houston Rockets at LA Clippers
3:30 p.m. Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Records (Against the Spread)
Rockets: 40-41 (44-35-2)
Clippers: 51-30 (38-43-0)
Line: Rockets (-2.5) Total: 221.5
Money Line: Rockets (-130), Clippers (+110)
BPI Projection: Clippers by 5, straight up 66%, 224.7 total points.
Injury Report:
Rockets: Alperen Sengun, (OUT – Ankle); Dillon Brooks, (NA – Groin); Fred VanVleet, (GTD – Hip); Jae’Sean Tate, (OUT – Ankle); Steven Adams, (OUT – Knee); Tari Eason, (OUT – Lower Leg)
Clippers: James Harden, (NA – Foot); Kawhi Leonard, (OUT – Knee)
Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings
3:30 p.m. Golden 1 Center, Sacramento
Records (Against the Spread)
Blazers: 21-60 (40-41-0)
Kings: 45-36 (42-38-1)
Line: Kings (-16.5) Total: 214.5
Money Line: Blazers (+900), Kings (-1600)
BPI Projection: Kings by 14.7, straight up 88%, 202.5 total points.
Injury Report:
Blazers: Anfernee Simons, (GTD – Knee); Deandre Ayton, (GTD – Back); Jabari Walker, (GTD – Knee); Scoot Henderson, (NA – Hip); Jerami Grant, (OUT – Hamstring); Malcolm Brogdon, (OUT – Elbow); Matisse Thybulle, (OUT – Ankle); Robert Williams III, (OUT – Knee); Shaedon Sharpe, (OUT – Abdomen); Toumani Camara, (OUT – Ribs)
Kings: Trey Lyles, (NA – Illness); Malik Monk, (OUT – Knee); Kevin Huerter, (OUT – Shoulder)