NBA betting: Five picks for Monday
As always, let’s take a closer look across the slate and identify some interesting angles with the potential to outperform expectations.
New York Knicks (-7.5) vs. Charlotte Hornets (-110).
This game is a tale of two trades. Since trading for OG Anunoby, the Knicks are 12-2 with a +15.0 point average margin with him in the lineup. Since trading away Terry Rozier, the Hornets are 0-3 with a -17.7 point scoring differential. Yes, the game is in Charlotte, but if both teams play to post-trade levels, the Knicks are likely to roll. According to ESPN Analytics, the Knicks should be favored by 10 points. The Knicks will be without Julius Randle (shoulder), but their lineup has enough strong depth that I still expect them to play well on Monday.
Lauri Markkanen over 23.5 points (-125).
Markkanen has been on a scoring spree for weeks, now. In his last 11 games, he has averaged 25.8 PPG, with at least 26 points scored in seven of those 11 games. In other words, when his shot is working, he doesn’t just go over 23.5 points, he has been typically going over 24.5 points, as well (which you could get at -105 on ESPN BET). The Nets have been solid against opposing power forwards this season, but will be without starter Dorian Finney-Smith (ankle) on Monday.
Houston Rockets (+1.5) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (-120).
The Rockets are a strong team at home this season, sporting a 16-8 record, but this pick is actually more about the Lakers. The Lakers won a double-overtime thriller on Saturday night, edging the Warriors 145-144. LeBron James and Anthony Davis both carried extremely heavy loads on Saturday, combining for 93 total minutes on the court. Perhaps uncoincidentally, the Lakers are listing both James (knee) and Davis (Achilles soreness) as game-time decisions on Monday. While it’s possible that either/both could play, this just feels like the Lakers may need some recovery time for their two elder statesmen best players.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 31.5 points (-110).
Gilgeous-Alexander has been metronome-consistent as a scorer against the Timberwolves, going back a couple of seasons. In his last six games against the Timberwolves (in reverse order from today), SGA has scored 33, 34, 32, 35, 33 and 32 points with three games in each season. Those numbers are just a tick above his season scoring averages for the last couple seasons, indicating he just typically performs at slightly above (his) average in what has become a rivalry matchup against the Timberwolves. I expect nothing different on Monday.
Victor Wembanyama over 24.5 points (-130).
Wembanyama has scored at least 23 points in eight straight games, a span over which he is averaging 25.8 PPG in 27.1 MPG. The minutes are important to note, because after limiting Wembanyama to under 26 minutes in every game between December 17 and January 13, the Spurs have since played Wemby at least 27 minutes in each of his last seven outings. On Monday, he faces a Wizards defense that allows the second-most points in the NBA to opposing centers (26.5 PPG to the position).
Giannis Antetokounmpo over 6.5 assists (-105).
Antetokounmpo seemed to have dropping dimes as his New Year’s resolution. In calendar year 2024, he has averaged 7.8 APG with five triple-doubles and another two games with nine assists. Before Saturday’s blowout win against the Pelicans in which he only played 29 minutes, Giannis had been on a five-game streak of at least 9 assists in every game.
In addition, anecdotally, Giannis’ scoring style requires extremely high energy consumption. You can see it, particularly when teams build the wall, that he has to brute-strength his way to the rim and finish through contact. I’ve noticed that this season, he’s doing a lot more drive-and-kick, particularly late in games. So, when I note that a) Giannis is on the injury list with an illness and b) the game is at altitude in Denver, I feel like it’s more likely that he’ll be driving-and-kicking (and thus generating assists) at a higher rate than usual on Monday.
Odds by ESPN BET. Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com.
New York Knicks at Charlotte Hornets
7 p.m. Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC
Records (Against the Spread)
Knicks: 29-17 (27-18-1)
Hornets: 10-34 (16-28-0)
Line: Knicks (-9.5) Total: 221.5
Money Line: Knicks (-400), Hornets (+320)
BPI Projection: Knicks by 10, straight up 82%, 229.4 total points.
Injury Report:
Knicks: Duane Washington Jr., (OUT – Thumb); Julius Randle, (OUT – Shoulder); Mitchell Robinson, (OUT – Ankle)
Hornets: Frank Ntilikina, (GTD – Hip); LaMelo Ball, (GTD – Ankle); Gordon Hayward, (OUT – Calf); Mark Williams, (OUT – Back); Kyle Lowry, (OUT – Not Injury Related)
LA Clippers at Cleveland Cavaliers
7 p.m. Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland
Records (Against the Spread)
Clippers: 30-14 (25-19-0)
Cavaliers: 27-16 (23-19-1)
Line: Clippers (-2.5) Total: 225.5
Money Line: Clippers (-130), Cavaliers (+110)
BPI Projection: Clippers by 2, straight up 57%, 232.0 total points.
Injury Report:
Clippers: Jordan Miller, (GTD – Achilles); Moussa Diabate, (OUT – Hand); Ivica Zubac, (OUT – Calf)
Cavaliers: Donovan Mitchell, (GTD – Groin); Evan Mobley, (GTD – Knee); Darius Garland, (OUT – Jaw); Tristan Thompson, (OUT – Suspension); Ty Jerome, (OUT – Ankle)
New Orleans Pelicans at Boston Celtics
7:30 p.m. TD Garden, Boston
Records (Against the Spread)
Pelicans: 26-20 (25-20-1)
Celtics: 35-11 (23-21-2)
Line: Celtics (-8.5) Total: 235.5
Money Line: Pelicans (+305), Celtics (-380)
BPI Projection: Celtics by 5.6, straight up 69%, 234.1 total points.
Injury Report:
Pelicans: None reported
Celtics: Al Horford, (GTD – Neck); Kristaps Porzingis, (GTD – Ankle); Luke Kornet, (GTD – Hamstring)
Utah Jazz at Brooklyn Nets
7:30 p.m. Barclays Center, New York
Records (Against the Spread)
Jazz: 24-23 (29-18-0)
Nets: 18-27 (21-22-2)
Line: Jazz (-1.5) Total: 235.5
Money Line: Jazz (-115), Nets (-105)
BPI Projection: Jazz by 1.6, straight up 56%, 236.1 total points.
Injury Report:
Jazz: None reported
Nets: Ben Simmons, (NA – Back); Day’Ron Sharpe, (OUT – Knee); Dorian Finney-Smith, (OUT – Ankle); Dariq Whitehead, (OUT – Lower Leg)
Phoenix Suns at Miami Heat
7:30 p.m. Kaseya Center, Miami
Records (Against the Spread)
Suns: 26-20 (17-28-1)
Heat: 24-22 (19-26-1)
Line: Heat (-3.5) Total: 229.5
Money Line: Suns (+130), Heat (-150)
BPI Projection: Heat by 1.8, straight up 57%, 228.5 total points.
Injury Report:
Suns: Bol Bol, (GTD – Foot); Jusuf Nurkic, (GTD – Thumb); Damion Lee, (OUT – Knee)
Heat: Dru Smith, (OUT – Knee)
Los Angeles Lakers at Houston Rockets
8 p.m. Toyota Center, Houston
Records (Against the Spread)
Lakers: 24-23 (21-26-0)
Rockets: 21-24 (23-20-2)
Line: Lakers (-1.5) Total: 231.5
Money Line: Lakers (-115), Rockets (-105)
BPI Projection: Rockets by 1.7, straight up 56%, 230.0 total points.
Injury Report:
Lakers: Anthony Davis, (GTD – Achilles); LeBron James, (GTD – Ankle); Cam Reddish, (OUT – Ankle); Gabe Vincent, (OUT – Knee)
Rockets: Tari Eason, (OUT – Lower Leg); Victor Oladipo, (OUT – Knee)
Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies
8 p.m. FedExForum, Memphis
Records (Against the Spread)
Kings: 26-18 (24-19-1)
Grizzlies: 18-28 (21-25-0)
Line: Kings (-8.5) Total: 225.5
Money Line: Kings (-400), Grizzlies (+320)
BPI Projection: Kings by 6, straight up 70%, 233.8 total points.
Injury Report:
Kings: Sasha Vezenkov, (GTD – Ankle)
Grizzlies: Derrick Rose, (GTD – Hamstring); Luke Kennard, (GTD – Knee); Jake LaRavia, (OUT – Ankle); Brandon Clarke, (OUT – Achilles); Marcus Smart, (OUT – Finger); Desmond Bane, (OUT – Ankle); Ja Morant, (OUT – Shoulder); Steven Adams, (OUT – Knee)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder
8 p.m. Paycom Center, Oklahoma City
Records (Against the Spread)
Timberwolves: 32-14 (22-21-3)
Thunder: 32-14 (30-15-1)
Line: Thunder (-2.5) Total: 222.5
Money Line: Timberwolves (+120), Thunder (-140)
BPI Projection: Thunder by 2.9, straight up 60%, 234.8 total points.
Injury Report:
Timberwolves: Mike Conley, (GTD – Hamstring); Jaylen Clark, (OUT – Achilles)
Thunder: Tre Mann, (GTD – Not Injury Related)
Washington Wizards at San Antonio Spurs
8 p.m. Frost Bank Center, San Antonio
Records (Against the Spread)
Wizards: 8-37 (21-23-1)
Spurs: 10-36 (22-23-1)
Line: Spurs (-3.5) Total: 241.5
Money Line: Wizards (+140), Spurs (-165)
BPI Projection: Spurs by 3.9, straight up 63%, 237.8 total points.
Injury Report:
Wizards: Isaiah Livers, (OUT – Hip)
Spurs: Zach Collins, (GTD – Ankle); Charles Bassey, (OUT – Knee)
Orlando Magic at Dallas Mavericks
8:30 p.m. American Airlines Center, Dallas
Records (Against the Spread)
Magic: 24-22 (29-17-0)
Mavericks: 25-21 (24-22-0)
Line: Mavericks (-4.5) Total: 227.5
Money Line: Magic (+150), Mavericks (-175)
BPI Projection: Mavericks by 2.8, straight up 60%, 231.8 total points.
Injury Report:
Magic: Markelle Fultz, (GTD – Knee); Gary Harris, (OUT – Calf)
Mavericks: Dante Exum, (GTD – Knee); Derrick Jones Jr., (GTD – Wrist); Dwight Powell, (GTD – Eye); Maxi Kleber, (GTD – Toe); Kyrie Irving, (OUT – Thumb)
Milwaukee Bucks at Denver Nuggets
9 p.m. Ball Arena, Denver
Records (Against the Spread)
Bucks: 32-14 (18-28-0)
Nuggets: 32-15 (19-26-2)
Line: Nuggets (-3.5) Total: 238.5
Money Line: Bucks (+140), Nuggets (-165)
BPI Projection: Nuggets by 3.8, straight up 63%, 238.6 total points.
Injury Report:
Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, (GTD – Illness)
Nuggets: Julian Strawther, (OUT – Knee); Vlatko Cancar, (OUT – Knee)
Philadelphia 76ers at Portland Trail Blazers
10 p.m. Moda Center, Portland
Records (Against the Spread)
76ers: 29-15 (28-16-0)
Blazers: 13-33 (21-25-0)
Line: 76ers (-9.5) Total: 223.5
Money Line: 76ers (-450), Blazers (+360)
BPI Projection: 76ers by 9.6, straight up 81%, 222.5 total points.
Injury Report:
76ers: Joel Embiid, (GTD – Knee); Tobias Harris, (GTD – Illness); Tyrese Maxey, (GTD – Ankle); Kenneth Lofton Jr., (OUT – Personal); De’Anthony Melton, (OUT – Back); Robert Covington, (OUT – Knee)
Blazers: Shaedon Sharpe, (OUT – Abdomen); Moses Brown, (OUT – Wrist); Robert Williams III, (OUT – Knee)