NBA betting: Five picks for Friday’s slate
The compelling player matchup likely leads us to focus on MVP favorite Nikola Jokic facing Rookie of the Year favorite Victor Wembanyama, albeit in a game with a massive point spread. More on Jokic’s prospects below.
The slate is filled with large lines outside of a matchup between the Atlanta Hawks and Utah Jazz, a game that potentially offers value for the home team and the point total.
With a lens on finding the sharpest angles ahead of tonight’s schedule, let’s dig into the matchups and find some opportunities to win.
Nikola Jokic over 25.5 points.
For as impressive as Wembanyama’s rim protection rates have been, it’s worth noting the Spurs have ceded the third-most DraftKings points per game to centers through a fantasy lens. San Antonio sits 23rd overall in defensive rating, thanks in part to sporting the seventh-lowest rebounding percentage in the league. This recipe for offensive rebounds is a formula for scoring when it comes to Jokic, who is eighth overall in total boards on the offensive glass. The threat here is a blowout that limits Jokic’s playing time, but we saw Jokic cruise to 39 points in a November drubbing of San Antonio in this compelling matchup with the likely Rookie of the Year. Fear of blowout outcomes might be, well, overblown when it comes to Jokic’s scoring pattern; facing the three weakest teams in fantasy points allowed to centers — the Washington Wizards, Portland Trail Blazers, and Spurs over the course of six matchups this season — he has surpassed this number five times.
Wendell Carter Jr. over 8.5 rebounds.
With Jakob Poeltl and Scottie Barnes sidelined, the Toronto Raptors are running out small lineups in recent weeks. With up to four guards in several lineup looks, it’s not surprising the Raptors rank 29th in rebounding percentage over the past 10 games. The Magic, meanwhile, are tops in rebounding percentage over the span and Carter Jr. paces Orlando with 14.3 rebounding chances per game. He has surpassed eight rebounds in three of his past four games and with a clear matchup advantage in place, “WCJ” is poised to do work on the glass.
Kawhi Leonard under 4.5 assists.
While he’s a gifted offensive player, Leonard’s best skill is isolation scoring, not distribution. With an elite, ball-dominant creator in James Harden at the helm of the pick-and-roll scheme for the Clippers, and competition for touches and passing volume with Paul George, it’s understandable that Leonard has finished below five assists in five of his seven March games. The Pelicans have multiple wings with busy hands in the passing lanes and their lauded close-out approach on shooters has led to atypically great opponent shooting results the past two seasons. All of which is to say there is a blend of player-driven and matchup-driven factors suppressing Leonard’s playmaking upside this evening.
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CJ McCollum over 19.5 total points and assists.
With 5.1 potential assists per game over his past 10 outings and a 25-point showing in his last meeting with the Clippers just before the All-Star break, there are reasonable paths for McCollum to exceed this number. The Clippers, for their part, have surrendered nearly 44 DraftKings points per game to shooting guards over the past seven games, the 11th-highest such allowance over this span.
Utah Jazz (+2.5) vs. Atlanta Hawks, Under 223.5 points.
Quin Snyder returns to Salt Lake City with a depleted Atlanta roster missing Trae Young‘s scoring gravity. While the Jazz are also missing key players, such as Jordan Clarkson and Lauri Markkanen, a young wave of emergent talent is stepping up with the likes of Keyonte George on the ascent. The Hawks smoked the Jazz in Atlanta not that long ago, although elevation is another angle in play, as scoring often dips for teams on the road in Utah’s climate. The Jazz have struggled against quality opponents lately, but also have proven competitive against lower-tier teams in recent weeks. There is also intrigue in the under in this one, as both offenses have revealed struggles in recent games, especially with Atlanta scoring under 106 points in three straight games.
Odds provided by ESPN BET. Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com.
Phoenix Suns at Charlotte Hornets
7 p.m. Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC
BPI Projection: Suns in the second-highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Suns: Eric Gordon, (GTD – Knee); Josh Okogie, (GTD – Abdomen); Damion Lee, (OUT – Knee)
Hornets: Bryce McGowens, (OUT – Knee); LaMelo Ball, (OUT – Ankle); Cody Martin, (OUT – Ankle); Mark Williams, (OUT – Back); Seth Curry, (OUT – Ankle)
Suns projections:
Kevin Durant, SF/PF: 48.3 FPTS (29.6 pts, 6.8 reb, 5.9 ast)
Devin Booker, PG/SG/PF: 46.4 FPTS (27.6 pts, 4.8 reb, 6.1 ast, 2.0 3PM)
Bradley Beal, PG/SG: 34.5 FPTS (19.3 pts, 4.0 reb, 4.5 ast)
Jusuf Nurkic, C: 27.7 FPTS (11.9 pts, 10.3 reb, 3.4 ast)
Grayson Allen, SG: 25.9 FPTS (11.5 pts, 4.2 reb, 3.0 ast, 2.1 3PM)
Royce O’Neale, SF: 20.9 FPTS (7.8 pts, 4.3 reb, 2.5 ast, 2.0 3PM)
Drew Eubanks, PF: 13.3 FPTS (6.1 pts, 3.9 reb, 1.0 ast)
Hornets projections:
Miles Bridges, SF/PF: 39.6 FPTS (21.4 pts, 7.5 reb, 3.9 ast, 2.3 3PM)
Brandon Miller, SG/SF: 32.8 FPTS (17.8 pts, 4.6 reb, 2.6 ast, 2.3 3PM)
Vasilije Micic, PG/SG: 26.1 FPTS (13.3 pts, 3.0 reb, 4.0 ast)
Tre Mann, PG: 25.9 FPTS (12.3 pts, 5.0 reb, 3.1 ast)
Nick Richards, C: 24.1 FPTS (11.0 pts, 8.9 reb, 0.9 ast)
Grant Williams, PF: 20.3 FPTS (9.8 pts, 4.1 reb, 1.9 ast)
Davis Bertans, PF: 13.1 FPTS (6.0 pts, 2.2 reb, 1.2 ast)
Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons
7 p.m. Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
BPI Projection: Heat in the sixth-highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Heat: Bam Adebayo, (GTD – Back); Kevin Love, (OUT – Heel); Tyler Herro, (OUT – Foot); Josh Richardson, (OUT – Shoulder)
Pistons: Cade Cunningham, (GTD – Knee); Ausar Thompson, (OUT – Illness); Quentin Grimes, (OUT – Knee)
Heat projections:
Jimmy Butler, SF/PF: 42.7 FPTS (23.1 pts, 5.9 reb, 5.2 ast)
Bam Adebayo, C: 36.8 FPTS (20.1 pts, 9.8 reb, 4.0 ast)
Terry Rozier, PG/SG: 36.5 FPTS (18.5 pts, 4.1 reb, 5.6 ast, 2.3 3PM)
Duncan Robinson, SG/SF: 23.4 FPTS (11.2 pts, 2.6 reb, 3.1 ast, 2.5 3PM)
Jaime Jaquez Jr., SF: 21.4 FPTS (10.5 pts, 3.6 reb, 2.0 ast)
Caleb Martin, SG/SF: 20.4 FPTS (10.4 pts, 4.3 reb, 1.7 ast)
Nikola Jovic, SF: 15.4 FPTS (7.0 pts, 4.5 reb, 1.7 ast)
Pistons projections:
Cade Cunningham, PG/SG: 42.7 FPTS (25.6 pts, 4.9 reb, 7.4 ast, 2.0 3PM)
Jaden Ivey, PG/SG: 31.6 FPTS (20.0 pts, 3.9 reb, 4.0 ast)
Jalen Duren, C: 28.8 FPTS (12.5 pts, 10.6 reb, 2.4 ast)
Isaiah Stewart, PF/C: 27.4 FPTS (14.6 pts, 7.2 reb, 1.7 ast)
Simone Fontecchio, SF: 26.5 FPTS (14.1 pts, 4.9 reb, 1.9 ast, 2.3 3PM)
Marcus Sasser, PG: 18.2 FPTS (8.9 pts, 1.9 reb, 2.7 ast)
James Wiseman, C: 16.0 FPTS (7.0 pts, 5.2 reb, 1.1 ast)
Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors
7:30 p.m. Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
BPI Projection: Magic in the fourth-highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Magic: None reported
Raptors: D.J. Carton, (GTD – Ankle); Gary Trent Jr., (GTD – Groin); RJ Barrett, (OUT – Personal); Chris Boucher, (OUT – Knee); Jakob Poeltl, (OUT – Finger); Scottie Barnes, (OUT – Hand)
Magic projections:
Paolo Banchero, SF/PF: 39.0 FPTS (24.0 pts, 6.1 reb, 5.5 ast)
Franz Wagner, SG/SF/PF: 33.6 FPTS (19.3 pts, 4.7 reb, 3.3 ast)
Wendell Carter Jr., C: 23.6 FPTS (11.7 pts, 6.8 reb, 1.4 ast)
Jalen Suggs, PG/SG: 22.1 FPTS (11.4 pts, 3.1 reb, 2.5 ast, 1.9 3PM)
Cole Anthony, PG: 20.3 FPTS (10.6 pts, 3.4 reb, 2.5 ast)
Moritz Wagner, PF/C: 17.4 FPTS (9.0 pts, 3.7 reb, 0.9 ast)
Gary Harris, SG: 15.6 FPTS (7.6 pts, 1.8 reb, 1.2 ast)
Raptors projections:
Immanuel Quickley, PG/SG: 43.7 FPTS (23.3 pts, 5.6 reb, 5.7 ast, 2.9 3PM)
Kelly Olynyk, PF/C: 32.3 FPTS (14.4 pts, 6.7 reb, 4.1 ast)
Gradey Dick, SG: 24.3 FPTS (13.5 pts, 3.8 reb, 1.7 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Gary Trent Jr., PG/SG: 23.8 FPTS (13.3 pts, 3.2 reb, 1.3 ast, 2.5 3PM)
Bruce Brown, SG/SF: 21.1 FPTS (10.5 pts, 4.3 reb, 1.9 ast)
Jontay Porter, PF: 16.2 FPTS (6.4 pts, 4.3 reb, 1.8 ast)
Ochai Agbaji, SG/SF: 16.1 FPTS (8.6 pts, 3.2 reb, 0.9 ast)
LA Clippers at New Orleans Pelicans
8 p.m. Smoothie King Center, New Orleans
BPI Projection: Pelicans in the third-highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Clippers: James Harden, (GTD – Shoulder); Russell Westbrook, (OUT – Hand)
Pelicans: Dyson Daniels, (OUT – Knee)
Clippers projections:
Kawhi Leonard, SF/PF: 41.1 FPTS (22.1 pts, 5.2 reb, 3.4 ast, 1.9 3PM)
Paul George, SG/SF/PF: 37.4 FPTS (20.6 pts, 4.9 reb, 3.6 ast, 3.0 3PM)
James Harden, PG/SG: 34.7 FPTS (15.4 pts, 4.9 reb, 6.7 ast, 2.4 3PM)
Ivica Zubac, C: 24.5 FPTS (11.8 pts, 8.2 reb, 1.2 ast)
Norman Powell, SG/SF: 21.6 FPTS (12.9 pts, 2.7 reb, 1.2 ast, 2.0 3PM)
Terance Mann, SG/SF: 16.0 FPTS (7.0 pts, 3.4 reb, 1.2 ast)
Daniel Theis, PF/C: 12.5 FPTS (5.6 pts, 3.3 reb, 0.8 ast)
Pelicans projections:
Brandon Ingram, SF/PF: 40.5 FPTS (23.0 pts, 5.1 reb, 5.4 ast)
Zion Williamson, PF: 39.6 FPTS (22.7 pts, 5.6 reb, 5.1 ast)
CJ McCollum, PG/SG: 31.3 FPTS (16.2 pts, 3.5 reb, 3.8 ast, 2.6 3PM)
Herbert Jones, SF/PF: 30.1 FPTS (11.5 pts, 3.5 reb, 2.3 ast)
Trey Murphy III, SG/SF: 25.7 FPTS (12.2 pts, 3.3 reb, 1.5 ast, 3.0 3PM)
Jonas Valanciunas, C: 20.4 FPTS (9.0 pts, 6.4 reb, 1.5 ast)
Larry Nance Jr., PF/C: 16.3 FPTS (6.0 pts, 4.9 reb, 1.3 ast)
Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs
8:30 p.m. Frost Bank Center, San Antonio
BPI Projection: Nuggets in the fifth-highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Nuggets: Vlatko Cancar, (OUT – Knee)
Spurs: Cedi Osman, (OUT – Ankle); Charles Bassey, (OUT – Knee)
Nuggets projections:
Nikola Jokic, C: 57.5 FPTS (26.4 pts, 11.8 reb, 7.9 ast)
Jamal Murray, PG: 43.4 FPTS (23.7 pts, 4.1 reb, 6.7 ast, 2.4 3PM)
Michael Porter Jr., SF: 30.8 FPTS (16.1 pts, 6.4 reb, 1.7 ast, 2.6 3PM)
Aaron Gordon, PF: 26.4 FPTS (13.2 pts, 5.1 reb, 3.1 ast)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG/SF: 20.9 FPTS (10.4 pts, 2.4 reb, 1.9 ast)
Christian Braun, SG: 14.7 FPTS (7.6 pts, 3.6 reb, 1.2 ast)
Reggie Jackson, PG: 13.3 FPTS (5.6 pts, 1.3 reb, 2.5 ast)
Spurs projections:
Victor Wembanyama, PF/C: 38.3 FPTS (20.3 pts, 9.3 reb, 3.5 ast, 2.2 blk)
Devin Vassell, SG/SF: 37.3 FPTS (21.3 pts, 4.0 reb, 4.2 ast, 2.6 3PM)
Tre Jones, PG: 24.2 FPTS (9.2 pts, 3.3 reb, 5.4 ast)
Jeremy Sochan, PG/PF: 23.3 FPTS (11.5 pts, 5.7 reb, 2.9 ast)
Keldon Johnson, SF: 23.3 FPTS (12.3 pts, 3.9 reb, 2.3 ast)
Zach Collins, PF/C: 18.0 FPTS (9.6 pts, 3.9 reb, 2.3 ast)
Julian Champagnie, SG/SF: 16.6 FPTS (8.3 pts, 3.7 reb, 1.6 ast)
Atlanta Hawks at Utah Jazz
9:30 p.m. Delta Center, Salt Lake City
BPI Projection: Jazz in the highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Hawks: Bogdan Bogdanovic, (GTD – Illness); Jalen Johnson, (GTD – Ankle); Seth Lundy, (GTD – Back); Kobe Bufkin, (OUT – Toe); Onyeka Okongwu, (OUT – Toe); Trae Young, (OUT – Finger); Saddiq Bey, (OUT – Knee)
Jazz: Taylor Hendricks, (GTD – Toe); Jordan Clarkson, (OUT – Groin); Kris Dunn, (OUT – Rest); Lauri Markkanen, (OUT – Quadriceps)
Hawks projections:
Dejounte Murray, PG/SG: 44.7 FPTS (24.0 pts, 5.2 reb, 6.8 ast, 2.4 3PM)
Bogdan Bogdanovic, SG/SF: 34.0 FPTS (18.7 pts, 3.7 reb, 3.9 ast, 3.3 3PM)
De’Andre Hunter, SF/PF: 29.8 FPTS (19.2 pts, 3.9 reb, 1.5 ast, 2.1 3PM)
Clint Capela, C: 28.4 FPTS (14.1 pts, 10.2 reb, 1.2 ast, 1.4 blk)
Bruno Fernando, C: 22.0 FPTS (11.5 pts, 7.1 reb, 1.3 ast)
Vit Krejci, PG: 9.6 FPTS (2.9 pts, 2.2 reb, 1.6 ast)
Garrison Mathews, SG/SF: 8.9 FPTS (3.2 pts, 2.1 reb, 0.6 ast)
Jazz projections:
Collin Sexton, PG/SG: 40.1 FPTS (24.4 pts, 3.0 reb, 5.0 ast)
John Collins, PF: 34.8 FPTS (20.1 pts, 9.3 reb, 1.9 ast)
Keyonte George, PG/SG: 32.0 FPTS (18.0 pts, 3.4 reb, 5.2 ast, 2.4 3PM)
Brice Sensabaugh, SF: 22.2 FPTS (13.0 pts, 4.2 reb, 1.3 ast)
Walker Kessler, C: 20.7 FPTS (9.8 pts, 7.4 reb, 1.1 ast, 1.9 blk)
Luka Samanic, PF: 19.1 FPTS (12.9 pts, 4.0 reb, 0.9 ast)
Talen Horton-Tucker, SG/SF: 18.6 FPTS (8.9 pts, 2.0 reb, 3.5 ast)