NBA betting: Best picks for Saturday
With an 8-4 record and the fourth-highest efficiency differential in the league, the Thunder are prospering. Can the Warriors avenge their most recent loss to Oklahoma City and snap their losing streak? Looking forward to finding out.
Now let’s dive into my first betting recommendation.
New York Knicks -6.5
The Knicks find themselves in a favorable position on the road against the struggling Charlotte Hornets. New York ranks 11th in points scored per 100 possessions and boasts a formidable defense, ranking fifth in points allowed per 100 possessions. In stark contrast, the Hornets’ defense is at the opposite end of the spectrum, ranking last in the league in points allowed per 100 possessions. This matchup features the Knicks, known for their offensive and defensive prowess, squaring off against the Hornets, a team with a midtier offense but a glaring weakness in defense. This stark contrast is why I’m backing New York to cover. Also, this season, the Knicks have a 3-0 record against the spread when favored by 6.5 points or more.
LaMelo Ball over 6.5 rebounds
I’m drawn to this prop bet at plus odds like a moth to a flame. Only the Memphis Grizzlies and Portland Trail Blazers have a lower field goal percentage than the Knicks. New York also ranks sixth in field goal attempts per game this season. Ball will be able to stockpile rebounds in this environment. Over the course of his career, he has averaged 6.3 rebounds per game. When you dive deeper down the rabbit hole, Ball has averaged 9.2 rebounds against the Knicks.
Rudy Gobert over 22.5 points and rebounds
With four points and eight rebounds against the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday, Gobert had an underwhelming performance. The veteran center is well-positioned to bounce back against the New Orleans Pelicans. New Orleans gives up the fifth most points per game and third most rebounds per game to centers.
Kyrie Irving over 35.5 points, rebounds and assists
Irving will play against the Bucks on Saturday after missing Wednesday’s game against the Wizards. Irving has averaged 22.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 6.7 assists this season, but he should exceed expectations against Milwaukee. The Bucks are a poor rebounding team right now and rank 24th in points allowed per 100 possessions.
Duncan Robinson over 21.5 points, rebounds and assists
On Saturday night, Robinson plays against a Bulls team that is middle of the road defensively. He’s surpassed 21.5 points, rebounds and assists in three consecutive games. In every game Tyler Herro has missed because of an ankle injury, Robinson has played 30 or more minutes. He’s also an excellent streamer for those who play fantasy basketball. Robinson is only rostered in 16.1% of ESPN leagues.
Bam Adebayo over 14.5 rebounds and assists
In November, Adebayo has been phenomenal. He’s averaged 11.8 rebounds and 4.4 assists. In addition to their poor rebounding, the Bulls are currently in a downward spiral surrounded by trade rumors involving players. Adebayo should meet or exceed his November per averages on Saturday.
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com.
New York Knicks at Charlotte Hornets
6 ET Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC
Records (Against the Spread)
Knicks: 7-5 (8-3-1)
Hornets: 3-8 (5-6-0)
Line: Knicks (-6.5) Total: 223.5
Money Line: Knicks (-275), Hornets (+225)
BPI Projection: Knicks by 4.1, straight up 64.1%, 230.7 total points.
Injury Report:
Knicks: Quentin Grimes, (GTD – Hand); RJ Barrett, (GTD – Illness)
Hornets: James Bouknight, (GTD – Knee); Terry Rozier, (GTD – Groin); Frank Ntilikina, (OUT – Lower Leg); Cody Martin, (OUT – Knee)
Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans
7 ET Smoothie King Center, New Orleans
Records (Against the Spread)
Timberwolves: 8-3 (6-3-2)
Pelicans: 6-6 (6-5-1)
Line: Timberwolves (-5.5) Total: 220.5
Money Line: Timberwolves (-225), Pelicans (+190)
BPI Projection: Timberwolves by 2.9, straight up 60.3%, 226.4 total points.
Injury Report:
Timberwolves: Jaylen Clark, (OUT – Achilles); Jordan McLaughlin, (OUT – Knee)
Pelicans: Jose Alvarado, (GTD – Ankle); CJ McCollum, (OUT – Chest); Trey Murphy III, (OUT – Knee); Larry Nance Jr., (OUT – Ribs)
Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls
8 ET United Center, Chicago
Records (Against the Spread)
Heat: 8-4 (5-7-0)
Bulls: 4-9 (4-8-1)
Line: Heat (-2.5) Total: 213.5
Money Line: Heat (-130), Bulls (+110)
BPI Projection: Heat by 3.4, straight up 62.3%, 219.1 total points.
Injury Report:
Heat: Tyler Herro, (OUT – Ankle); R.J. Hampton, (OUT – Knee)
Bulls: Lonzo Ball, (OUT – Knee); Dalen Terry, (GTD – Kneecap)
Dallas Mavericks at Milwaukee Bucks
8 ET Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee
Records (Against the Spread)
Mavericks: 9-3 (7-5-0)
Bucks: 8-4 (3-9-0)
Line: Bucks (-1.5) Total: 245.5
Money Line: Mavericks (+105), Bucks (-125)
BPI Projection: Bucks by 1.9, straight up 56.7%, 246.4 total points.
Injury Report:
Mavericks: Maxi Kleber, (OUT – Toe)
Bucks: Jae Crowder, (OUT – Groin); Chris Livingston, (GTD – Ankle); MarJon Beauchamp, (GTD – Ankle)
Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs
8 PT Frost Bank Center, San Antonio
Records (Against the Spread)
Grizzlies: 2-9 (3-8-0)
Spurs: 3-9 (3-8-1)
Line: Grizzlies (-2.5) Total: 226.5
Money Line: Grizzlies (-145), Spurs (+125)
BPI Projection: Grizzlies by 3.5, straight up 61.9%, 231.7 total points.
Injury Report:
Grizzlies: Brandon Clarke, (OUT – Achilles); Steven Adams, (OUT – Knee); Derrick Rose, (GTD – Knee); Luke Kennard, (OUT – Knee); Xavier Tillman, (OUT – Knee); Marcus Smart, (OUT – Foot); Ja Morant, (OUT – Suspension)
Spurs: Devin Vassell, (GTD – Thigh); Tre Jones, (GTD – Hamstring)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors
8:30 ET Chase Center, San Francisco
Records (Against the Spread)
Thunder: 8-4 (9-3-0)
Warriors: 6-7 (5-7-1)
Line: Thunder (-1.5) Total: 232.5
Money Line: Thunder (-120), Warriors (+100)
BPI Projection: Warriors by 1, straight up 53.5%, 234.1 total points.
Injury Report:
Thunder: Cason Wallace, (GTD – Shoulder)
Warriors: Stephen Curry, (GTD – Knee); Gary Payton II, (OUT – Ankle); Draymond Green, (OUT – Suspension)