Jaguars-Saints Thursday night: NFL betting odds, picks, tips
So what can we expect from a betting standpoint for Thursday night’s game?
Betting analysts Tyler Fulghum, Eric Moody, Seth Walder, Al Zeidenfeld and Aaron Schatz are here to provide their thoughts.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.
Schatz: I think these teams are evenly matched, but I like the OVER 40 in this game. Jacksonville is 13th in offensive DVOA and New Orleans is 20th. Both teams are above-average in pace. I think 40 is a pretty low number for a game that should have very average scoring — and is taking place indoors.
Fulghum: I’m going to play the UNDER 40. I think Schatz makes some compelling points. It is very scary given such a low total and some legitimate firepower on each offense. However, 12(!) straight Saints games have gone under the total dating back to last season. New Orleans’ offensive line is banged up, which upgrades the matchup for an already stout Jags defense. Trevor Lawrence is dealing with a knee injury that could compromise his ability or keep him out of the game all together. I’m going to keep riding this trend in Saints games until the party stops, especially given the circumstances we have in this matchup.
Moody: With a spread this narrow, I recommend backing the Saints on the money line and picking Jaguars to score under 20.5 points. Lawrence is nursing an injury, so the Jaguars face even steeper odds on a short week on the road. Will he be at full strength? There are also injuries on the offensive line for the Jaguars. The Saints have their own injury concerns, too. With that said New Orleans’ defense could be the difference maker in this matchup. In five of their six games, the Saints have allowed fewer than 20 points and aren’t allowing opponents to accumulate a lot of yardage. There is the potential for this matchup to be a snoozefest.
Schatz: Both the ESPN FPI simulation and my simulation based on DVOA have the Jaguars with an average of 10.3 wins, so I would bet over 9.5 on the Jaguars at this point. The division doesn’t look as it easy as it once did — both Houston and Indianapolis have been a little frisky — but the Jaguars are currently eighth in overall DVOA and Trevor Lawrence still isn’t playing up to his potential.
Zeidenfeld: The Jaguars are an ascending team that is just now beginning to find its stride. The offense is strong and in my opinion will continue to get more efficient as the year goes on. I feel like if they get there it’s going to be with 10 wins and not 11 with games still remaining against the 49ers, Bengals and Ravens and road matchups with the Browns, Texans and Buccaneers. It’s certainly not an easy schedule, and with the recent injury that Lawrence is dealing with this week it can really put the over in peril. Even though I like the team, and even though I believe they finish the year with 10 wins, the UNDER is the sharper play for the Jaguars at this juncture.
Fulghum: I would play the Saints UNDER 9.5. How impressive is their 3-3 start to the season? They beat the Titans by a single point in Week 1, defeated the Panthers by 3 points in Week 2 and then had the 34-0 shutout against the inept Patriots offense. Meanwhile, division rival Tampa Bay handled them fairly easily in Week 4 winning by 15 points, plus losses to Green Bay and Houston. They do have a rather easy schedule, but it’s been pretty easy to this point. This is a .500 team, so getting to 10 wins to cash the over seems far-fetched for me. I really like the under.
Walder: I’ll go Saints UNDER 9.5, too. FPI puts the number at 8.9, and I think they struggle controlling the line of scrimmage in the pass game on both sides of the ball. The Saints rank 27th and 32nd in pass block and pass rush win rate, respectively, and it’s hard to get behind a team with such a weakness in the trenches.
Zeidenfeld: Yes! The Saints defense has allowed less than 95 yards rushing in one game this season and four times have allowed opponents to gain over 100 on the ground. The Jags have piled a ton of opportunity onto Etienne this season and he has shined in the last month as a result. I’ll take this over.
Moody: Etienne’s chances of surpassing that number are good even against a Saints defensive front that ranks eighth in run stop win rate. He’s averaged a robust 18.8 rushing attempts and 75.2 rushing yards per game behind a Jaguars offensive line that ranks 30th in run block win rate. Etienne’s athleticism and playmaking ability allowed him to rise above poor offensive line play (Jaguars rank 30th in run block win rate), which is a testament to his skills. Since Etienne hails from Jennings, Louisiana, he’ll have added motivation to perform well in his home state in front of his family and friends.
Schatz: The Jacksonville defense has tended to prevent pass attempts to the No. 2 wide receiver, allowing just 24.5 yards per game, so I’ll take Michael Thomas UNDER 52.5 yards (-115).
Fulghum: Alvin Kamara UNDER 52.5 rush yds (-135). The Jags bring one of the most imposing run defenses to New Orleans for this Thursday night matchup. Jacksonville is allowing just 3.6 yards per rush this season and sports the fourth-best success rate defending the run in the entire league. Kamara’s workload has been fantastic since his return from suspension, but he is averaging just 3.8 YPC this season and the Saints offensive line could be missing as many as three starters. That elite workload could also take a bit of a hit on Thursday with the return of Jamaal Williams expected after he was activated off IR on Tuesday.
Walder: Cameron Jordan OVER 0.25 sacks (+165 at DraftKings). I feel like I’m usually fading Jordan as his pass rush win rate has generally been pretty weak these later years of his career (it’s just 10% this year). But with only one sack this season, this line has gone too far against him: Jordan has a history as a sack-artist and still plays a lot: he’s been on the field for 82% of defensive snaps, 14th-most among players with at least 50 pass rushes this year. That matters.
Moody: Chris Olave OVER 60.5 receiving yards. Only the Chargers’ defense (289.0) allows more passing yards per game than the Jaguars (270.3). Tyson Campbell suffered a hamstring injury last week against the Colts, this negatively impacts Jacksonville’s secondary. Olave has averaged 8.8 targets per game. This season, only one wide receiver has more air yards than Olave (814): A.J. Brown.(819).
Moody: Chris Olave Alt Receiving Yards 100-plus yards (+400). Olave should feast on a struggling Jaguars secondary. Jacksonville’s defense has given up 100 or more receiving yards to Michael Pittman Jr. (109), Stefon Diggs (121), Tank Dell (145) and Bijan Robinson (105) in four straight games.