Hype Trap Bet: Exploring the trends behind Iowa’s over/unders
If you’ve seen the movie The Room, you know that line all too well (if you haven’t, drop what you’re doing and go watch it immediately. It will reshape everything you think you knew about cinema).
Before I saw the movie for the first time, I didn’t understand how something that was described as so bad could be so good. But just as we all drive by an accident on the side of the road and slow down to see what’s going on, humans are compelled and entranced by things that are not “quality” or “good”. The Room has garnered such a cult following for exactly that reason.
“So bad that it’s good” could also describe how many of us felt watching the Iowa Hawkeyes take on the Northwestern Wildcats at Wrigley Field last Saturday afternoon.
At one point during the week, the over/under had dropped to 29.5, which would have been a record low since ESPN started tracking FBS game totals over 25 years ago. The line got bet up to 32.5 by kickoff, but everybody knew we were in store for a rock fight. So, it came as no surprise that the game was scoreless at halftime. I told Field Yates “it’s worse than we could have imagined” to which he clarified that it was in fact “better” than we could have imagined.
And that’s kind of the point. If you tuned in expecting points, you’re going to be massively disappointed. If you tuned in knowing you were probably going to see three scoring plays all game, very few first downs and lots of punts, you were in for a treat, and you could sit back and laugh along with the hilarity of it all.
Guess what! We get to do it all over again this weekend.
Currently, the total for Iowa-Rutgers is set at 28.5, which would yet again be the lowest on record for an FBS game. The previous low was 30.5, achieved by Iowa-Minnesota earlier this season (which broke the record that was held by last year’s Iowa-Minnesota game at 31.5).
So with Iowa football being a cult favorite in the same way The Room is, it’s safe to say we might have more eyeballs on this game then we probably should. But as a card-carrying member of the Sickos Committee, I feel it is my duty and my destiny to provide some betting advice. Currently at ESPN BET, 73% of wagers on the total for this game are on the under, despite it trending towards a record low. Can we take the under on a game where 16-13 is graded as a loss?
Rutgers at No. 22 Iowa (-1.5, 28.5)
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA
On the gridiron, Iowa has been the furthest thing from pretty. It may often leave you paraphrasing Tommy Wiseau, saying “Do you understand football?! Do you?!”
Over the past two seasons, unders in Hawkeye games are 22-6 (9-4 last season, 7-2 this season). And despite the totals dropping lower recently, we’re still seeing a 4-game streak of unders.
Iowa’s offense is painful and occasionally frustrating to watch, scoring 18.4 PPG (the 3rd-lowest of any Power 5 team) and averaging just 225 yards per game (35 fewer than any team in FBS). 24 different teams are doubling up Iowa’s yardage totals and 14 teams are doubling up the Hawkeyes’ scoring output.
But for something this drastic to occur, it needs to be evident on both sides of the ball. To quote Wiseau again, “You can love defense deep inside your heart, and there is nothing wrong with it. If a lot of people loved defense, the world would be a better place to live.”
Kirk Ferentz’s squad loves defense more than Tommy loves saying “don’t worry about it”, holding opponents to the 4th-fewest PPG in the nation. Iowa has held opponents under 17 points in all but one game this season. The Hawkeyes are one of two teams that are both scoring and allowing under 20 PPG (the other is Nebraska, who will face Iowa at noon the day after Thanksgiving — that definitely won’t be a sluggish, low-scoring affair).
If you watched the Northwestern game, one more aspect of Iowa’s gameplan should sell you on betting the under – pace of play. The game combined for only 117 combined plays, of which 82 were rushes. In the 4th quarter, Iowa ran on all 5 third downs they faced, including a 3rd-and-7, a 3rd-and-8, and a 3rd-and-16.
Iowa’s goal is to get a lead and end the game as fast as humanly possible. Their 56% designed rush rate in conference play ranks fourth among Power 5 teams; Rutgers ranks seventh. I think the characters in The Room threw a football further than Iowa does in a typical game.
So take the under. Maybe wait until the day of and see if the line jumps up again and get a better number. Then when Saturday afternoon comes around, get your spoons ready, sit back and enjoy Kirk Ferentz’ live-action adaptation of The Room, while rooting for it to be as bad (or as good) as it possibly can.
Who knows, maybe afterwards we can all channel our inner Tommy and scream “Iowa did not hit over, it did not! Oh, hi Mark.”
New York Jets (-1.5, 36.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
This is another primetime game where we shouldn’t get our hopes up for points, and I’m going to lean into it.
Jets to punt on first offensive drive (-140).
The Jets have played eight games this season. They have punted on their opening drive seven times. They are averaging 1.4 yards per play on their opening drive, five yards per drive, and have only recorded a first down in three games (one of them coming via penalty). New York hasn’t even gotten across midfield the first time they’ve had the ball.
Normally -140 is a lot of juice to take, but this prop should be much closer to -200. Don’t worry about a Zach Wilson turnover either; he’s been so afraid to make a mistake that he’s just taking sacks instead (26 over the last six games). Wilson has just one interception in the last 6 games, and four of his five picks have come in the 4th quarter when he’s forced to make a play. On the opening drive, the Jets seem complacent to just play the field position game.
San Francisco 49ers (-3, 45.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida
At last, the crown jewel of the Week 10 slate. The only game where both teams have a winning record and the total is over 40.
Trevor Lawrence longest pass under 34.5 yards (-114)
I’ll keep this one simple. The 49ers have only allowed three pass plays of 35+ yards this season in eight games. On two of them, the DB fell down in coverage. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have three pass plays of 35-plus yards this season in eight games. One came on a two-yard slant that Christian Kirk housed, and another came on a wheel route to Travis Etienne Jr. where the safety tried to jump the route rather than make a tackle.
We’ve got a team that doesn’t want to push the ball downfield (Lawrence’s average air yards/attempt ranks 26th in the NFL) against a team that doesn’t allow deep passing. A broken play is the primary way this bet would go south.