How to replace Mike Conley in fantasy basketball
Two seasons ago, this would have been an imaginary roundball gut punch. Conley’s been a rock-solid top-10 fantasy floor general — good but never elite in any particular category (other than two seasons where he averaged 2.2 steals).
These days? If you’re counting on Conley that much, you’re probably hard at work on fantasy baseball draft prep.
Up until this season, Conley served as one-half of my favorite midround point guard combination: Conley and Kemba Walker. On their own, Conley and Walker are not the kind of point guards that traditionally inspire statistical palpitations. But I’ve built countless fantasy teams around their underrated 1-2 punch.
Year-in, year-out, both Walker and Conley could be counted on to be available at 1-2 rounds below their actual market value. But where Walker has vaulted into top-5 PG consideration, Conley (15.3 points, 6.1 assists, 1.4 3-pointers, 1.2 steals) has battled injuries and regressed to 17th on the player rater.
Conley’s steals and 3-point production are in subtle yet unmistakable decline. By the way, this is all happening at the worst time: Conley hits unrestricted free agency this summer.
Since 2011, he’s only played more than 73 games once (80 games in 2012-13). It’s looking like 2013-14 (17.2 points, 6.0 assists, 1.4 3-pointers, 1.5 steals) may go down as Conley’s peak season.
When healthy, Conley is still a solid contributor. But it may be easier than you think to replace Conley.
Injuries and late season shifts to “let’s see what ___ can do” have combined to produce some decent waiver-wire alternatives. All of the following replacements are rostered in fewer than 50 percent of all ESPN Fantasy leagues.
Jerryd Bayless, PG Milwaukee Bucks (25.6 percent owned)
With Michael Carter-Williams out, I’d hoped for a higher assist rate out of Bayless (2.8 assists per game in his past five games). But Giannis Antetokounmpo looks to have the keys to the Bucks’ offense. Still, Bayless has value thanks to near-elite 3s (2.6 per game in his past five) and solid steals (1.2 in his past five).
D.J. Augustin, PG, Denver Nuggets (15.8 percent owned)
Emmanuel Mudiay appears to have finally flipped the switch. But Augustin is a proven fantasy contributor logging decent minutes on a team desperate for scoring and playmaking punch. He posted a nice double-double (17 points, 10 assists) versus the Wizards Saturday night.
Patrick Beverley, PG, Houston Rockets (26.3 percent owned)
Beverley doesn’t provide traditional PG stats (only 2.7 assists per game for 2015-16). But he’s logging heavy minutes and is a great source of steals and 3s. Beverley is also one of the top rebounding PGs in fantasy (5.4 rebounds per game in his past five).
Shelvin Mack, PG, Utah Jazz (14.5 percent owned)
Mack appears to be gaining confidence and consistency in his starting role for the Jazz. During his past two games, Mack posted a combined 41 points, 12 assists and 7 3-pointers.
Marcus Smart, PG/SG, Boston Celtics (29.3 percent owned)
With Jae Crowder‘s high-ankle sprain, Smart could be in line for a bump in playing time. He qualifies at two positions and has all the upside in the world. I like Smart as a solid yet unspectacular late-season breakout candidate.
Ty Lawson, PG, Indiana Pacers (14.0 percent owned)
Don’t be fooled by the (relative) big name. Since joining the Pacers, Lawson has been battling injuries. Even when healthy, the Pacers feature decent backcourt depth, which could make it hard for Lawson to land on the late-season fantasy radar.
Ray McCallum, PG, Memphis Grizzlies (6.1 percent owned)
Signed to the suddenly PG-bereft Grizzlies, Conley’s logical replacement is a score-first PG that can consistently produce decent fantasy numbers. With so many other statistical anomalies in Memphis (Lance Stephenson, JaMychal Green) producing, why can’t McCallum join the party?
Jose Calderon, PG, New York Knicks (10.8 percent owned)
As good an assists man as you’ll find on this list. Calderon is an inconsistent scorer, but he’ll notch a 3-pointer and a steal, and rebounds well for a PG. Calderon’s biggest negative at this stage? Coach Kurt Rambis’ shambolic rotational patterns.
Marcelo Huertas, PG, Los Angeles Lakers (5.2 percent owned)
Huertas’ past-5 numbers: 27.2 minutes, 9.4 points, 4.8 assists and 3.4 rebounds. He won’t get you much in the way of steals and 3s, but he has a sneaky-good blocks rate for a PG.