Give up on Dwight Howard (and other 2016 fantasy resolutions)
All we have left are a few extra pounds, a couple of fantasy football championships, our fantasy basketball teams and an overwhelming urge to enact positive change in our disappointing lives.
I tend to merge my need for personal reclamation with the needs of my fantasy basketball teams. Like you, I make an annual list of personal resolutions. Unlike you, I go on to make a list of fantasy basketball resolutions.
The cynic in me always looks forward to this time of the year.
I will not get back together with Dwight Howard.
I’m happy that Howard has reassumed a modicum of his old form (he’s averaged 19.2 points and 12.6 rebounds over his past five games). But that old form includes a tendency to singlehandedly torpedo your imaginary franchise’s free throw performance.
As long as Howard posts 10-for-18 and 10-for-17 nights from the charity stripe? I’m not coming back. (Oh, and the dropoff in blocks doesn’t help either.)
I will break up with Robert Covington.
This isn’t all about Covington. It’s as much about the Sixers reaching for some actual form of respectability. It’s about the hiring of Jerry Colangelo.
The Sixers’ fantasy value has been kneecapped by Philadelphia’s sudden embrace of competence. I love me some Ish Smith (a true basketball Rocky story in the making), but they are suddenly winning games, and I don’t like it.
The Sixers’ fantasy value over the last few seasons has been driven by one dynamic; let’s give a bunch of teenagers and mediocre players 28-plus minutes a night.
Shoot 32 percent from the floor? You’ve got the green light. Well give you 30 minutes a night to help you find your stroke. Abysmal turnover ratio? That’s fine. Keep pushing the pace! We’re smarter than everyone else and revolutionizing the rebuilding process.
Robert Covington was the fantasy poster child of these Sixers. This is a man who in 2014 averaged 13.5 points, 2.4 3-pointers and 1.4 steals. Top-50 upside. Now, he’s lost his starting gig. Carl Landry is getting more minutes. Jerami Grant is getting starts. Grant has some blocks/defensive upside, but Covington was my guy.
It’s all about consistent minutes. And the new, less post-apocalyptic Sixers are turning their tanking, fantasy-friendly rotation into a goopy MPG mush. Look at their recent (winning) box scores…it’s a 20-to-25 minutes per game miasma.
I didn’t go to law school. I will stop contemplating “Making of a Murderer” and recommit to making true shooting percentage more a part of my everyday life.
I need to pivot toward controlling what I can control. And that starts with improving my fantasy basketball teams’ percentages performance. Don’t forget, true shooting percentage — the inclusion of 3-point production and free throw shooting into a standalone percentage metric — is an underrated, off-the-radar indicator of a player’s rising fantasy prospects.
Some players who have been on the rise; Wesley Matthews, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Al Horford, C.J. McCollum, Cody Zeller, Ish Smith and Thaddeus Young.
I will fully embrace the Utah Jazz.
The basketball universe has a bias toward Eastern Standard Time. As a result, it’s harder for some up-and-coming Western Conference team to get its deserved amount of oxygenation. Last season, it was the Suns. This season, it’s the Jazz.
The Jazz are stocked with young upside. Their rotation is fluid. They’ve been hit by injuries. It’s a volatile mix, but it’s the kind of mix that tends to create new sources of fantasy production.
Gordon Hayward‘s PR15 is up to 9.95. Rodney Hood is on fire. Jeff Withey is playing with a French accent. He’s performing a heckuva Rudy Gobert imitation, averaging three blocks a game over his past five games. Trey Burke has bounced back in a bench role.
The Jazz are just the kind of team fantasy owners should be monitoring going into the second half of the campaign; young, talented, and injury-prone.
I will take the Chiefs at 10/1 to win the AFC Championship.
Another one of my personal resolutions … thought I’d include some financial advice.
I will look for bigger roles for promising hyphenates.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Michael Carter-Williams, and Willie Cauley-Stein are all trending up headed into the New Year. Karl-Anthony Towns is in a mini-slump, but I wouldn’t worry because…
There is no “rookie wall.” I will do my best to rebut its existence.
There is no rookie wall. Only freshman inconsistency. Shake off slumps from promising players like Kristaps Porzingis and Towns. The draft class of 2015 was stocked. Going into 2016, look for increased bursts of rookie consistency.
I will prioritize out of position statistics.
Centers who are hitting 3s: Chris Bosh, Meyers Leonard, Porzingis, Frank Kaminsky and Kelly Olynyk. Guards blocking shots: Michael Carter-Williams, John Wall, Kemba Walker, Trey Burke and Jeremy Lin.
I will stop taking the Current Mrs. Cregan to see “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” and will take her to more films I don’t care about.
I saw a lot of movies over the holidays. I forgot how much date night could wreak havoc upon your fantasy basketball endeavors.
Here’s the key; let her pick the movie. When you feel yourself nodding off, offer to get her popcorn. Thin Mints. Parking validation. Anything to get out of the theater. These shows of Date Night magnanimity provide a marvelous built-in opportunity to check how your fantasy basketball teams are doing. (If it’s something like “Sisters,” you may even have time to pull off a trade.)
I will come up with an escape plan for Bobby Portis.
Bobby Portis‘ per-36 numbers: 19.3 PTS, 10.8 REB, 1.3 STL, 0.9 3PT, 0.6 BLK. His minutes over the past five games: 10, 27, 26, 30, 18. I don’t care how the Bulls are doing in real life. I need Bobby Portis to average 28-to-30 minutes a night.
I will ride tanking teams.
As we head toward All-Star Weekend, more and more teams will slide into ping-pong ball territory. These teams will open up their rotations and start to prioritize developing their young upside.
Teams like the Nets, Sixers, Suns and Lakers are already there. The Pelicans, Timberwolves, Nuggets and Bucks could eventually join them. These are the teams that will dig into their benches and provide new, unexpected sources of fantasy goodness.
I will be more concerned about the health of the Golden State Warriors.
Like the Jazz, the Warriors have been bitten by the injury bug. But when you’re operating at the elevated, historic heights of the Warriors? It doesn’t matter who they’re plugging in. They’re producing.
Festus Ezeli. Ian Clark. Some of them could be made up names. It doesn’t matter. Anyone getting 25-30 MPG in this system is a temporary fantasy factor.
I will set the trade market in my keeper leagues.
Don’t wait too long if your keeper team is struggling. Strike first, and strike hard. The best deals made in most leagues are the first deals. This is because everyone tends to measure future deals against the first one. Know when to say “when” and start planning for the future.
I will memorize the over/under totals from Vegas every morning.
Another gambling note, but this one has real fantasy ramifications. Vegas knows more than we do. Sorry, they just do. And a quick scan of their anticipated points totals is a great way to get a feel for your upcoming fantasy day.
I will consider selling high on Kemba Walker.
I’ve drafted Kemba Walker approximately a zillion times since he’s entered the league. Every season, he shows us true Kembelivers how right we are, consistently outperforming his ADP.
But have you seen what he’s done lately sans Nicolas Batum? His past five game average: 27.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.8 3-pointers, 2.6 steals…and 0.8 blocks. Walker is barely 6 feet tall! (His shot-blocking acumen has always been a reason to draft him).
Walker has officially entered “he can’t keep this up” territory. I love Walker, but this would be the time to consider selling high.
I will not sell high on Jae Crowder.
Crowder is Exhibit A as to why we should pay attention to hustle-related stats. Like Draymond Green, he’s been a player who oozed “all I need is minutes” potential. He flashed fantasy relevance in Dallas. He’s become a borderline fantasy star in Boston…the waiver wire add of the year to date.
I will fight to keep my fantasy football playoff beard.
With some marital-partner approved grooming, I should be allowed to keep it long enough to help out my fantasy basketball squads. The beard has momentum.