Fantasy mailbag: Give up on Dragic?
If you have a question, tweet me @AtomicHarpua or with #FBAMailbag before Thursday morning each week, and I’ll cull some of the best ones to answer here.
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Goran Dragic has been a major disappointment, largely because his scoring is down more than five points per game compared to his 26 games with the Miami Heat last season (16.6 PPG to 11.1 PPG). That’s partially due to poor shooting (42.3 field goal percentage), and considering he topped 50 percent the past two seasons, that should rise. The real issue is that he is taking just 9.7 field goal attempts per game.
The difference between the end of last season and now is that Chris Bosh is back (and taking 14.0 FGA per game), Dwyane Wade is healthy and Hassan Whiteside is active on offense (10.8 FGA per game). That means the Heat do not need to lean on Dragic as a scorer. Plus, this remains a slow-paced team (96.6, 26th in the NBA), so there aren’t going to be an abundance of chances.
All of that having been said, don’t give up on him — or more to the point, don’t trade him now when his value is minimal. Wait until the injury-prone Wade and/or Whiteside get hurt. Then the Heat will be forced to lean on Dragic for his scoring and his trade value will rise.
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Emmanuel Mudiay is doing exactly what I predicted: racking up nice dimes, scoring and stealing some, while shooting horrifically and turning the ball over way too much. He is what he is.
On the other hand, I expected Gordon Hayward to take his game up a notch this season, but so far, his production has regressed. Generally speaking, I’m not overly concerned with his scoring, because he is taking plenty of shots — they just haven’t been falling. That’s just the ebb and flow of a shooting stroke; his shot will come back sooner or later.
Neither of these players is going to get worse this season, so I wouldn’t be looking to deal them. Better days are ahead.
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As I just noted above, Mudiay’s production is only going to get better, so that makes him a buy-low candidate. However, his shot is going to require years of work, so I’ll be shocked if he gets his field goal percentage anywhere near 40 percent this season, and any 19-year-old point guard playing 30 minutes per game is going to have gobs of turnovers. So factor that into any decision you make.
As for Reggie Jackson for Nicolas Batum, this is a completely fair trade for both sides, as both players are locked into terrific roles and are playing well. I think this is a question of whether you want Batum’s 3s and rebounds or Jackson’s scoring and assists.
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There really is nothing worse than that sinking feeling that all of your sleepers are busts and all of your stars are injured or never going to live up to expectations. Still, you can always make a climb in the standings, so start targeting injured players like Kyrie Irving, Jrue Holiday and Chandler Parsons, and work the waiver wire like a maniac to cull the best freebies you can find. Get active and maybe things will break your way as the season rolls along. It’s way too early to give up hope.
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Pretty much. Working in his reserve role, Enes Kanter is going to be capped at about 12-13 PPG, 8-8.5 RPG, plus his nice percentages. But he is a safe bet to continue churning out those kinds of numbers for the long haul, which makes him a quality roster filler, especially in points games, where his lack of assists and hustle stats don’t affect things as much as they do in roto games.
Of course, if Serge Ibaka gets hurt, Kanter’s upside would grow. But even though Ibaka missed 18 games last season, he has generally avoided long-term injuries in his career, so we shouldn’t count on another extended absence this season.
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I suppose it depends on what your five categories are, but generally speaking, I’d take Paul George over Damian Lillard, because he is going to generate more boards and steals.
If I were trading George for Whiteside’s big-man stats, I would want more than Jae Crowder to make the deal happen. His steals look mighty intriguing, but 2.8 SPG in an 11-game stretch seem fluky high to me. I want to see that level of production over a longer stretch, especially because he doesn’t do a whole lot more.
George is a lock as a top 5-10 player this season, while Whiteside is a horrible free throw shooter and hasn’t proved to be durable. He may get over the hump healthwise this season, but there is way more risk in Whiteside than George, and I would want a second impact player in return to make up for that.
Of course, if you are acquiring George in this proposed deal, I hope you already accepted the offer!
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Yes. Eventually, Tyreke Evans is going to return to the hardwood and Holiday will have his minutes restriction lifted, at which point Smith’s role will diminish greatly. Marcus Smart, on the other hand, should only see his role increase as his second season rolls along.
My long-standing rule is that if there is no collusion involved, there should be no veto, because I couldn’t even guess how many times I’ve seen trades that I thought looked horribly lopsided that ended up being completely fair or even benefited the team that initially appeared to be on the losing end.
However, when the league manager gets two players who clearly are far superior to the three he gave up and then overrides the league-mandated veto, then that is out of bounds. Clearly, you need a new commish.
In fact, it’s early enough in the season that you could draft a new league without that owner involved and simply start over.
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Ouch. Not sure exactly what to say about Nikola Mirotic at this stage of the season, except that I think there is nowhere to go but up for his stats. Even despite his struggles, Mirotic has chipped in enough 3s, rebounds and steals to keep his value afloat in deep leagues.
However, I haven’t seen enough promise to keep him rostered in shallower leagues. If there is another decent long-term upside player available on waivers — maybe Tyreke Evans, Kent Bazemore, Will Barton, Ish Smith — I would move on from Mirotic for the time being.