Fantasy hoops — Zach LaVine vs. Bradley Beal
Bradley Beal and Zach LaVine have nearly identical stat lines at this point of the season, as guards who rack up lots of points and 3s to go with some dimes and quality percentages. Given that Beal carries more injury risk, which player do you think will have the better second half of the season in fantasy?
Ohm Youngmisuk: The injury risk factor looms large when considering Beal, plus LaVine also could play more minutes. But I lean, ever so slightly, toward Beal.
LaVine has been terrific, and I am sure Timberwolves coach Tom Thibodeau will continue to play him big minutes. But center Karl-Anthony Towns and forward Andrew Wiggins also have to eat on a nightly basis. In Washington, Beal and John Wall get all the shots they want, even with the pleasant emergence of forward Otto Porter Jr.
And as one assistant coach who recently faced Washington told me, Wall is not only getting his teammates to run with him, but he “is doing a better job of calling plays to take advantage of the defense” and “playing to his teammates’ strengths when calling plays for them.” The assistant also said that Beal’s plus-minus is solid — as Beal’s plus-minus was at 6.6 in his previous 10 games.
Wall has been on a tear, winning Eastern Conference Player of the Month honors by averaging 24.5 points, 10.7 assists and 2.6 steals. A surging Wall should bode well for Beal, if Beal can stay healthy in the second half.
Joe Kaiser: Two factors have me leaning LaVine’s way. The main one is the injury risk to Beal, who has played more than 63 games only once in his four previous NBA seasons. The second is LaVine getting more time on the court (37.6 vs. 34.3 minutes per game). When you consider both of these, LaVine is a safer player who carries just as much upside. He is also outshooting Beal (47.6 to 45 field goal percentage).
As mentioned, both players are putting up very similar stats this season, but another thing to consider is that LaVine is matching Beal despite being two years younger and in only his third NBA season (Beal is in his fifth). That tells me that LaVine could have a higher ceiling the rest of the way this season if his game continues to blossom as fast as it has so far.
Kyle Soppe: I’m taking Beal here (on a per game basis), but it’s very close and the LaVine breakout season is very much a real thing. Both players are 6-foot-5 former first-round picks who are capable of getting as hot as anyone this side of Klay Thompson from deep, so there really is no separation of skill set in my opinion.
When projecting for the second half, however, there are a few minor advantages for Beal. From a pure basketball perspective, the situation in Washington is simply more friendly. Beal is the clear-cut second option every night and benefits from playing with a high-level point guard who is capable of running the offense. LaVine, on the other hand, is in more of a three-way split for primary option on an offense that lacks a reliable point guard to organize things. From a statistical view, Beal is more likely to sustain his scoring or improve, while LaVine is challenging what may be his peak.
Beal is shooting just 52.3 percent from inside of eight feet (his three-year average is a touch over 57 percent) and is more than a percentage point behind his career rate from 24-plus feet, while LaVine is above what the numbers expect in both categories. Give me Beal to hang on to his scoring edge and potentially increase it (the edge in free throw attempts helps as well), and thus have more fantasy value in the second half of the season.
Who will be the better fantasy player the rest of the season?